Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8169
• Publication Date: 2023-02-25T21:46:27Z
• Authors: Balakrishnan Sola...; Nube Gonzalez-Rev...; Louis-Philippe Caron; Andrej Ceglar; Andrea Toreti; Matteo Zampieri; Pierre-Antoine Br...; Margarita Samsó C...; Francisco J. Dobl...
• Keywords: Climate extremes; Preparedness; Extreme Weather

Unfavourable and extreme climate events such as drought heat stress heavily impact the agriculture sector food security globally, of these hazards is expected to increase over upcoming years due anthropogenic change. Decadal predictions have been made available stakeholders in a potential source near-term information that provides forecasts for following 10 years, thus providing an important increasing preparedness adaptation. In this study, ability predict extremes on multi-annual timescale explored. particular, skill reliability decadal probability estimate user-relevant agro-climatic indices, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), months preceding wheat harvest global spatial scale, will be presented. Following this, added value with respect using past observed climatology or standard (uninitialized) projections shown. The applicability enhance adaptation mitigation activities agricultural illustrated.