Physical Processes Leading to Extreme Day-to-day Temperatures Changes: Future Climate

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4416
• Publication Date: 2025-03-14T17:52:37Z
• Authors: Kalpana Hamal; Stephan Pfahl
• Keywords: Present day; Day to day; Day length; Day treatment; Time of day; Extreme heat

Extreme temperature changes from one day to the next, whether warming or cooling, have profound impacts on human health, ecosystems, and socio-economic, their potential future can result in even more significant challenges. In previous study, we quantified physical processes—advection, adiabatic, diabatic heating cooling—that drive extreme day-to-day (DTDT) present-day climate. However, role of these processes projected DTDT extremes under scenarios has remained unexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining globally using Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble a high-emission scenario together with Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations. The findings reveal that reduced due advection altered primarily decreases extratropics during December-February (DJF) June-August (JJA). contrast, increases tropics are caused enhanced local processes, such as radiative DJF, mostly intensified JJA, playing minor role. Therefore, there is strong need for adaptive strategies informed decision-making response climate change, particularly underdeveloped countries subtropics.