The Mediterranean Forecasting System – Part 1: Evolution and performance

• DOI: 10.5194/os-19-1483-2023
• Publication Date: 2023-10-25T12:31:05Z
• Authors: Giovanni Coppini; Emanuela Clementi; Gianpiero Cossarini; Stefano Salon; Gerasimos Korres; Michalis Ravdas; Rita Lecci; Jenny Pistoia; Anna Chiara Goglio; Massimiliano Drudi; Alessandro Grandi; Ali Aydogdu; Romain Escudier; Andrea Cipollone; Vladyslav Lyubartsev; Antonio Mariani; Sergio Cretì; Francesco Palermo; Matteo Scuro; Simona Masina; Nadia Pinardi; Antonio Navarra; Damiano Delrosso; Anna Teruzzi; Valeria Di Biagio; Giorgio Bolzon; Laura Feudale; Gianluca Coidessa; Carolina Amadio; Alberto Brosich; Arnau Miró; Eva Alvarez; Paolo Lazzari; Cosimo Solidoro; Charikleia Oikonomou; Anna Zacharioudaki
• Keywords: Regional Index Mediterranean Sea; G; Environmental sciences; 13. Climate action; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation; GE1-350; 14. Life underwater

Abstract. The Mediterranean Forecasting System produces operational analyses and reanalyses and 10 d forecasts for many essential ocean variables (EOVs), from currents, temperature, salinity, and sea level to wind waves and pelagic biogeochemistry. The products are available at a horizontal resolution of 1/24∘ (approximately 4 km) and with 141 unevenly spaced vertical levels. The core of the Mediterranean Forecasting System is constituted by the physical (PHY), the biogeochemical (BIO), and the wave (WAV) components, consisting of both numerical models and data assimilation modules. The three components together constitute the so-called Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) of the Copernicus Marine Service. Daily 10 d forecasts and analyses are produced by the PHY, BIO, and WAV operational systems, while reanalyses are produced every ∼ 3 years for the past 30 years and are extended (yearly). The modelling systems, their coupling strategy, and their evolutions are illustrated in detail. For the first time, the quality of the products is documented in terms of skill metrics evaluated over a common 3-year period (2018–2020), giving the first complete assessment of uncertainties for all the Mediterranean environmental variable analyses.