Predicting the duration of sickness absence for patients with common mental disorders in occupational health care

• DOI: 10.5271/sjweh.978
• Publication Date: 2011-12-14T05:40:10Z
• Authors: Karen Nieuwenhuijsen; Jos HAM Verbeek; Angela GEM de Boer; Roland WB Blonk; Frank JH van Dijk
• Keywords: Depression; Stepwise regression

Objectives This study attempted to determine the factors that best predict duration of absence from work among employees with common mental disorders. Methods A cohort 188 employees, whom 102 were teachers, on sick leave disorders was followed for 1 year. Only information potentially available occupational physician during a first consultation included in predictive model. The power variables tested using Cox's regression analysis stepwise backward selection procedure. hazard ratios (HR) final model used deduce simple prediction rule. resulting prognostic scores then probability not returning after 3, 6, and 12 months. Calculating area under curve ROC (receiver operating characteristic) discriminative ability Results produced following four predictors longer time until return work: age older than 50 years [HR 0.5, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.3–0.8], expectation 3 months (HR CI 0.3–0.8), higher educational level diagnosis depression or anxiety disorder 0.7, 0.4–0.9). score yielded areas curves ranging 0.68 0.73, which represent acceptable discrimination Conclusions rule based can be by physicians identify unfavorable cases sickness absence.