future regional distribution of electric vehicles in germany

• DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4026721
• Publication Date: 2020-09-12
• Authors: Patrick Plötz; Jan George; Daniel Speth; Martin Wietschel; Till Gnann
• Keywords: modelling; 11. Sustainability; 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering; 02 engineering and technology; Market Development; fleet; 7. Clean energy; electric vehicle (EV); user behaviour

Electrification as an option to decarbonize road transport leads to an increasing number of electric vehicles in Germany. However, the stock of electric vehicles is not evenly distributed regionally. The local distribution of electric vehicles is particularly important from an energy system perspective in order to be able to estimate future grid loads. Here, we use multiple linear regression to distribute a German-wide market diffusion of electric vehicles to 401 NUTS3-areas in Germany. Current regional vehicle stocks and regional development data (e.g. population, income, and spatial structure) are used as independent variables. We combine these variables with forecasts for spatial development and obtain a regionalized electric vehicle market diffusion for Germany. First results suggest a concentration of BEV and PHEV stocks in southwestern Germany and in large cities in the medium-term future.