Tropical cyclone forecast using NCMRWF Global (12 km) and regional (4 km) models

• DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v72i1.125
• Publication Date: 2021-10-28T09:48:25Z
• Authors: RAGHAVENDRA ASHRIT; SUSHANT KUMAR; ANUMEHA DUBE; T. ARULALAN; S. KARUNASAGAR; A. ROUTRAY; SAJI MOHANDAS; JOHN. P. GEORGE; A. K. MITRA
• Keywords: Landfall; Typhoon

Countries adjoining the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region are among world's worst affected areas by tropical cyclones (TCs). An increase in frequency and intensity of TCs affecting this basin is noticed recent years. Timely accurate prediction a TC can lead to decrease damages life property caused cyclone. In times, forecasts tracks have improved due advancements resolution, data assimilation techniques physics Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models improvements model's initial condition. study, we analysed Super Cyclone (SuCS) 'Amphan' that occurred over Bay Bengal during 16-21 May, 2020 obtained from Global Regional version NCMRWF Unified Model, i.e., NCUM-G NCUM-R, respectively. The analysis track error shows position 24-hour forecast errors both very close. However, 48 72-hour much lower NCUM-R compared NCUM-G. percentage global regional model about 12% 48-hour 17% forecasts. landfall less than 50 km predictions after 18th location as Comparing hrs minimum sea level pressure (SLP) based on conditions 16th close observed intensity. rapid intensification Amphan also well predicted models, although with delay. cyclone structure 850 hPa vorticity core stronger warm-core system more organized On other hand, maximum wind radius greater NCUM-R.