21st century permafrost distribution under the scenario of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in Mongolia

• DOI: 10.5564/pmas.v61i04.1927
• Publication Date: 2022-05-16T03:19:41Z
• Authors: Saruulzaya Adiya; Enkhbat Erdenebat
• Keywords: Inner mongolia

Permafrost in Mongolia is at the southern edge of Siberian permafrost, which most vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used ERA5-Land data determine distribution permafrost Mongolia, and MIROC5 for future projection soil temperature. The change temperature obtained during 2020–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios was RCP 2.6 8.5 respectively. This a first attempt identify using Mongolia. We examined rapid increase near-surface RCP8.5 scenario 2020-2100. Soil also has high increasing trend similar scenario. Future suggests that will completely thaw when area-averaged exceeds 1.8°C comparison with current climate.