The trend of AIDS in China: A prediction and comparative analysis with G20 countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

• DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04029
• Publication Date: 2024-03-01T13:38:25Z
• Authors: Mimi Zhai; Xianyang Lei; Yunxia Li; Li Li; Qin Jiang; Yamin Li; Sushun Liu
• Keywords: Trend analysis

Abstract Background In China, AIDS has become the most severe notifiable infectious disease. The study aimed to analyse and predict trend of in China compared with Group Twenty (G20) countries. Methods We utilised incidence, mortality or disability-adjusted life years (DALY), age-standardised rates (ASR), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) estimate via GBD 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied identify significant change. explored relationship between AAPC social development index (SDI) health care access quality (HAQ), predicted trends for next 20 years. Results DALY G20 increase 340.42%, 794.50% China. rate (ASDR) 309.49 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 284.69, 350.58) 2019, an 4.30. Among G20, United States had highest 1990, but it experienced a decline. ASDR 98.15 UI 78.78, 119.58) 5th ranking. term gender, mortality, DALY, ASR them were all higher males. Furthermore, gender gap been widening. periods 1990–1995 2013–2016, 1990–1994 G20. prediction indicated that high SDI countries expected exhibit stable declining trend, while low showed upward trend. demonstrated 57.66% 2040 Conclusions continues be burden. ASIR exhibited decline certain age groups, ASMR continued increase, widening disparity. addition, according our results, some could not achieve 2030 Agenda Sustainable Development set by UNAIDS. Therefore, is necessary establish more effective targeted measures, as well actively explore new treatment approaches.