Mechanistic theory predicts the effects of temperature and humidity on inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and other enveloped viruses

• DOI: 10.7554/elife.65902
• Publication Date: 2021-04-27T10:01:30Z
• Authors: Dylan H Morris; Kwe Claude Yinda; Amandine Gamble; Fernando W Rossine; Qishen Huang; Trenton Bushmaker; Robert J Fischer; M Jeremiah Matson; Neeltje Van Dorem...; Peter J Vikesland; Linsey C Marr; Vincent J Munster; James O Lloyd-Smith
• Keywords: 570; Hot Temperature; QH301-705.5; infectious disease; Science; 610; global health; virus; Models, Biological; Models; Humans; Biology (General); SARS-CoV-2; Prevention; microbiology; Q; humidity; R; temperature; environmental stability; COVID-19; Humidity; Biological; 3. Good health; Emerging Infectious Diseases; Infectious Diseases; Epidemiology and Global Health; Medicine; Virus Inactivation; epidemiology; Biochemistry and Cell Biology

Ambient temperature and humidity strongly affect inactivation rates of enveloped viruses, but a mechanistic, quantitative theory these effects has been elusive. We measure the stability SARS-CoV-2 on an inert surface at nine conditions develop mechanistic model to explain predict how alter virus inactivation. find survives longest low temperatures extreme relative humidities (RH); median estimated half-life is >24 hr 10°C 40% RH, ∼1.5 27°C 65% RH. Our uses fundamental chemistry why rate increases with increased shows U-shaped dependence The accurately predicts existing measurements five different human coronaviruses, suggesting that shared mechanisms may for many viruses. results indicate scenarios high transmission risk, point mitigation strategies, advance study transmission.