Estimation and worldwide monitoring of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2

• DOI: 10.7554/elife.71345
• Publication Date: 2022-08-08T12:00:37Z
• Authors: Jana S Huisman; Jérémie Scire; Daniel C Angst; Jinzhou Li; Richard A Neher; Marloes H Maathuis; Sebastian Bonhoeffer; Tanja Stadler
• Keywords: Pandemic; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Public Health Interventions; Basic reproduction number

The effective reproductive number R e is a key indicator of the growth an epidemic. Since start SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many methods and online dashboards have sprung up to monitor this through time. However, these are not always thoroughly tested, correctly placed in time, or overly confident during high incidence periods. Here, we present method for timely estimation , applied COVID-19 epidemic data from 170 countries. We evaluate on simulated data, intuitive web interface interactive exploration. show that, early 2020, majority countries estimated dropped below 1 only after introduction major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For Europe implementation interventions was broadly associated with reductions . Globally though, relaxing had more varied effects subsequent estimates. Our framework useful inform governments general public status epidemics their country, used as official source estimates Switzerland. It further allows detailed comparison between relation covariates such implemented health policies, mobility, behaviour, weather data.