Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

• DOI: 10.7554/elife.81916
• Publication Date: 2023-04-21T16:01:34Z
• Authors: Katharine Sherratt; Hugo Gruson; Rok Grah; Helen Johnson; Rene Niehus; Bastian Prasse; Frank Sandmann; Jannik Deuschel; Daniel Wolffram; Sam Abbott; Alexander Ullrich; Graham Gibson; Evan L Ray; Nicholas G Reich; Daniel Sheldon; Yijin Wang; Nutcha Wattanachit; Lijing Wang; Jan Trnka; Guillaume Obozinski; Tao Sun; Dorina Thanou; Loic Pottier; Ekaterina Krymova; Jan H Meinke; Maria Vittoria Ba...; Neele Leithauser; Jan Mohring; Johanna Schneider; Jaroslaw Wlazlo; Jan Fuhrmann; Berit Lange; Isti Rodiah; Prasith Baccam; Heidi Gurung; Steven Stage; Bradley Suchoski; Jozef Budzinski; Robert Walraven; Inmaculada Villan...; Vit Tucek; Martin Smid; Milan Zajicek; Cesar Perez Alvarez; Borja Reina; Nikos I Bosse; Sophie R Meakin; Lauren Castro; Geoffrey Fairchild; Isaac Michaud; Dave Osthus; Pierfrancesco Ala...; Antonello Maruotti; Veronika Eclerova; Andrea Kraus; David Kraus; Lenka Pribylova; Bertsimas Dimitris; Michael Lingzhi Li; Soni Saksham; Jonas Dehning; Sebastian Mohr; Viola Priesemann; Grzegorz Redlarski; Benjamin Bejar; Giovanni Ardenghi; Nicola Parolini; Giovanni Ziarelli; Wolfgang Bock; Stefan Heyder; Thomas Hotz; David E Singh; Miguel Guzman-Merino; Jose L Aznarte; David Morina; Sergio Alonso; Enric Alvarez; Daniel Lopez; Clara Prats; Jan Pablo Burgard; Arne Rodloff; Tom Zimmermann; Alexander Kuhlmann; Janez Zibert; Fulvia Pennoni; Fabio Divino; Marti Catala; Gianfranco Lovison; Paolo Giudici; Barbara Tarantino; Francesco Bartolucci; Giovanna Jona Las...; Marco Mingione; Alessio Farcomeni; Ajitesh Srivastava; Pablo Montero-Manso; Aniruddha Adiga; Benjamin Hurt; Bryan Lewis; Madhav Marathe; Przemyslaw Porebski; Srinivasan Venkat...; Rafal P Bartczuk; Filip Dreger; Anna Gambin; Krzysztof Gogolewski; Magdalena Gruziel...; Bartosz Krupa; Antoni Moszyński; Karol Niedzielewski; Jedrzej Nowosielski; Maciej Radwan; Franciszek Rakowski; Marcin Semeniuk; Ewa Szczurek; Jakub Zielinski; Jan Kisielewski; Barbara Pabjan; Kirsten Holger; Yuri Kheifetz; Markus Scholz; Biecek Przemyslaw; Marcin Bodych; Maciej Filinski; Radoslaw Idzikowski; Tyll Krueger; Tomasz Ozanski; Johannes Bracher; Sebastian Funk
• Keywords: 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Pandemic

Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields recent insights epidemiology, one maximise the predictive performance such if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report ensembles predicting COVID-19 cases deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 07 2022.