Would future climate warming cause zoonotic diseases to spread over long distances?

• DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16811
• Publication Date: 2024-02-21T08:28:41Z
• Authors: Fan Bu; Xiuxian Yue; Shanshan Sun; Yongling Jin; Linlin Li; Xin Li; Rong Zhang; Zhenghaoni Shang; Haiwen Yan; Haoting Zhang; Shuai Yuan; Xiaodong Wu; Heping Fu
• Keywords: Jackknife resampling

Dipus sagitta is a major rodent found in arid environments and desert areas. They feed on plant seeds, young branches some small insects, have hibernating habits. Peak numbers impact the construction of community environment, but also human as these rodents carry variety parasitic fleas capable spreading serious diseases to humans. Based 216 present distribution records seven environmental variables, this article simulates potential during Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, future (2070s, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). This study analyzes geographic changes population evaluates importance climate factors by integrating contribution rate, replacement value jackknife test using MaxEnt model. In study, we opted assess predictive capabilities our model receiver operating characteristic (ROC) partial (pROC) metrics. The findings indicate that AUC exceeds 0.9 ratio greater than 1, indicating superior performance results showed main climatic affecting three-toed jerboa were precipitation coldest quarter, temperature seasonality (standard deviation), mean annual temperature. Under two warming scenarios mid-Holocene future, there differences area jerboa. During suitable expanded, with 93.91% increase rate change compared Maximum. size jerboa’s habitat decreases under both scenarios. Compared current period, RCP4.5 emission scenario, −2.96%, RCP8.5 −7.41%. indicates trend contraction south expansion north. It important due formulate control strategies harmful prevent long-distance transmission zoonotic diseases.