Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil

• DOI: 10.7717/peerj.9322
• Publication Date: 2020-06-03T07:53:54Z
• Authors: Pedro Pequeno; Bruna Mendel; Clarissa Rosa; Mariane Bosholn; Jorge Luiz Souza; Fabricio Baccaro; Reinaldo Barbosa; William Magnusson
• Keywords: Population density

There is evidence that COVID-19, the disease caused by betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2, sensitive to environmental conditions. However, such conditions often correlate with demographic and socioeconomic factors at larger spatial extents, which could confound this inference. We evaluated effect of meteorological (temperature, solar radiation, air humidity precipitation) on 292 daily records cumulative number confirmed COVID-19 cases across 27 Brazilian capital cities during 1st month outbreak, while controlling for an indicator tests, arriving flights, population density, proportion elderly people average income. Apart from increasing time, was mainly related flights both factors. after accounting these effects, shown be temperature sensitive: there were more in colder days, accumulated faster lower temperatures. Our best estimate indicates a 1 °C increase has been associated decrease 8%. The quality data unknowns limit analysis, but study reveals urgent need understand about sensitivity predict demands health services different regions seasons.