This chapter documents that this surge has continued through 2004.Our data confirm the more casual observation of polarization in conflict over aid to contras Nicaragua, confirmation hearings and votes after nominations Robert Bork Clarence Thomas Supreme Court, rhetoric "Contract with America", budget showdown between Speaker Gingrich President Clinton 1995, impeachment process 1998-99. Measuring Ideology Polarization: A Quick PrimerHow do we know occurred?Every aficionado American politics...

A general nonlinear logit model is used to analyze political ch oice data.The assume s probabil istic voting based on a spa tial ut ility function.Th e parameters of the function and spatial coordinates oices oosers can all be estimated basis ob served oices.Ordinary Gut tman scaling de generate case th model.Estimation implemented in NOMINATE program for one dimensional analysis two alternative with no nonvoting.The robustne ss face validity output are evaluated roll call data U. S. Senate,...

Congressional roll call voting has been highly structured for most of U.S. history. The structure is revealed by a dynamic, spatial analysis the entire record from 1789 to 1985. space characterized predominant major dimension with, at times, significant, but less important second dimension. In modern era, positions are very stable. This stability such that, under certain conditions, short run forecasting votes possible. Since end World War II, changes in congressional patterns have occurred...

The paradox of not voting is examined in a model where voters have uncertainty about the preferences and costs other voters. In game-theoretic models voter participation under complete information, equilibrium outcomes can substantial turnout even when are relatively high. contrast, present, only with negligible or negative net participate electorate large.

Elected officials in the United States appear to represent relatively extreme support coalitions rather than interests of middle-of-the-road voters. This contention is supported by analysis variance liberal-conservative positions Senate from 1959 1980. Within both Democratic and Republican parties, there considerable variation positions, but two senators same state party tend be very similar. In contrast, different parties are highly dissimilar, suggesting that each represents an coalition...

I. The setter's problem under certainty and the importance of reversion point, 565.—II. Budget-maximizing with uncertain turnout, 571.—III. Exploiting a sequence elections, 579.—IV. Implications for empirical research, 581.—Appendix, 585.

During the past two generations, democratic forms have coexisted with massive increases in economic inequality United States and many other advanced democracies. Moreover, these new inequalities primarily benefited top 1 percent even .01 percent. These groups seem sufficiently small that could be held check by political equality form of “one person, one vote.” In this paper, we explore five possible reasons why US system has failed to counterbalance rising inequality. First, both Republicans...

Both pundits and scholars have blamed increasing levels of partisan conflict polarization in Congress on the effects gerrymandering. We assess whether there is a strong causal relationship between congressional districting polarization. find very little evidence for such link. First, we show that primarily function differences how Democrats Republicans represent same districts rather than which each party represents or distribution constituency preferences. Second, conduct simulations to...

Acknowledgments vii Introduction 1 Part I: The Political Bubble - Why Washington Allows Financial Crises to Occur Chapter Expectations 31 2 Ideology 38 3 Interests 71 4 Institutions 90 5 of the Crisis 2008 117 II: Pops Delays in Solving 6 Historical Lessons Responses 153 7 Pop 184 8 Populism 228 9 How Waste a 251 Epilogue 275 Notes 283 Bibliography 305 Name Index 327 Subject 333

We analyze party discipline in the House of Representatives between 1947 and 1998. The effects pressures can be represented a spatial model by allowing each to have its own cutting line on roll call votes. Adding second makes, at best, marginal improvement over standard single-line model. Analysis legislators who switch parties shows, however, that is manifest location legislator's ideal point. In contrast our approach, we find Snyder-Groseclose method estimating influence biased toward...

We develop and test a model of joint determination economic growth national election results in the United States. The formal model, which combines developments rational choice analysis behavior agents voters, leads to system equations dependent variables are rate vote shares presidential congressional elections. Our estimates support theoretical claims that responds unanticipated policy shifts voters use both on-year midterm elections balance two parties. On other hand, we find no for...

This paper extends the spatial theory of voting to an institutional structure in which policy choices depend upon not only executive but also composition legislature.Voters have incentives be strategic since reflects outcome a simultaneous election legislature and legislature's impact on depends relative plurality.To analyze equilibrium this game between voters, we apply "coalition proof' type refinements.The model has several testable implications are consistent with behavior United...

In the postwar United States president's party has always done worse in midterm congressional elections than previous election. Republican administrations exhibit below-average, and Democratic above-average, economic growth first half of each term, whereas latter halves two see equal growth. Our rational expectations model is consistent with these regularities. presidential elections, voters choose between polarized candidates. They then use to counterbalance policies by strengthening...

Some readers may have found these results of greater interest were we able to confirm the directional hypotheses certainty setter model in addition finding that spending is "related" reversion – much weaker prediction uncertainty model. Yet failure When base elections optional, their infrequent occurrence might be expected under either a median voter or For those districts did hold elections, observations appear consistent with model, but are inexplicable by inconsistent Finally, both (a)...

evaluate an author's presentation, analysis and interpretation of data. (p. vii) This purpose is accomplished in any easy-to-read introductory text for the medical student or physician, which, using a minimum mathematical development, illustrates many uses statistics medicine. The major strengths this book may be found Colton's use richness literature to provide numerous carefully completely worked examples exercises with answers; his attention throughout concepts methods relevant research,...