A5079184903- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Climate variability and models
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution
- Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Nonlinear Dynamics and Pattern Formation
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Winter Sports Injuries and Performance
- Mental Health Research Topics
- Landslides and related hazards
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Chaos control and synchronization
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2016-2025
Stockholm Resilience Centre
2015-2024
Stockholm University
2015-2024
Leibniz Association
2017-2024
Princeton University
2022-2024
Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
2023
Max Planck Institute for Mathematics
2019
Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences
2019
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
2009-2014
University of Potsdam
2009-2014
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, prevent stabilization of climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing would lead to much higher global average than any interglacial in past 1.2 million years sea levels significantly time Holocene. examine evidence such might exist where it be. If is resulting trajectory...
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine are transgressed, suggesting Earth is now well outside safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased all earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives system biosphere functions, human appropriation net proposed a control variable...
Significance Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social technological change within next few years. Drawing expert elicitation, an workshop, review literature, which provides comprehensive analysis this topic, we propose concrete interventions induce positive tipping dynamics transformation carbon-neutral societies. These comprise removing fossil-fuel subsidies incentivizing...
This paper presents a new approach for analysing structural properties of time series from complex systems. Starting the concept recurrences in phase space, recurrence matrix is interpreted as adjacency an associated network which links different points if evolution considered states very similar. A critical comparison these networks with similar existing techniques presented, revealing strong conceptual benefits can be unifying framework transforming into that also includes other methods...
We propose a method to reconstruct and analyze complex network from data generated by spatio-temporal dynamical system, relying on the nonlinear mutual information of time series analysis betweenness centrality theory. show, that this approach reveals rich internal structure in climate networks constructed reanalysis model surface air temperature data. Our novel uncovers peculiar wave-like structures high energy flow, we relate global ocean currents. This points major role oceanic...
Abstract. With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting severe consequences for climate, ecosystems and human societies. While underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it unclear how their interactions impact overall stability of Earth's system. As yet, this cannot be fully analysed with state-of-the-art Earth models due to computational constraints as well some...
Significance Ethnic divides play a major role in many armed conflicts around the world and might serve as predetermined conflict lines following rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. We find evidence global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence ethnically fractionalized countries. Although we no indications environmental disasters directly trigger conflicts, our results imply act...
Abstract In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like extreme 2012/13 winter in eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, nature of drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies proposed different mechanisms related changes Arctic, most them reduction sea ice concentrations or increasing...
The term tipping point has experienced explosive popularity across multiple disciplines over the last decade. Research on social-ecological systems (SES) contributed to growth and diversity of term's use. diverse uses obscure potential differences between behavior in natural social systems, issues causality system components SES. This paper aims create foundation for a discussion within SES research community about appropriate use point, especially relatively novel 'social point.' We review...
Abstract Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as Earth’s climate volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach introduced based on dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, novel network measures effect theory that go beyond standard tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied data set atmospheric dynamics, method...
Complex networks are an important paradigm of modern complex systems sciences which allows quantitatively assessing the structural properties composed different interacting entities. During last years, intensive efforts have been spent on applying network-based concepts also for analysis dynamically relevant higher-order statistical time series. Notably, many corresponding approaches closely related with concept recurrence in phase space. In this paper, we review recent methodological...
Potential paleoclimatic driving mechanisms acting on human evolution present an open problem of cross-disciplinary scientific interest. The analysis paleoclimate archives encoding the environmental variability in East Africa during past 5 Ma has triggered ongoing debate about possible candidate processes and evolutionary mechanisms. In this work, we apply a nonlinear statistical technique, recurrence network analysis, to three distinct marine records terrigenous dust flux. Our method enables...
Abstract. Continental moisture recycling is a crucial process of the South American climate system. In particular, evapotranspiration from Amazon basin contributes substantially to precipitation regionally as well over other remote regions such La Plata basin. Here we present an in-depth analysis mechanisms. quantify importance cascading (CMR), which describes transport between two locations on continent that involves re-evaporation cycles along way. Using Eulerian atmospheric tracking model...
Near-term gains on socio-economic goals under the 2030 Agenda could reduce Earth system ‘safety margin’ represented by nine planetary boundaries. We built an intentionally simple global systems simulation model, Earth3, that combines a model of human activity with biophysical environment. Earth3 fills key gap in family integrated models, being capable simulating complex dynamic implementation challenge full Agenda. generates consistent, transparent pathways from 1980 to 2050 for seven world...
Abstract Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine have recently linked together in ways that are significant scope, devastating effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars policymakers characterize situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains defined. We provide concept with substantive definition, highlight its value-added comparison to related concepts, develop theoretical framework explain causal mechanisms...