A5042769915- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Water resources management and optimization
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Health, Environment, Cognitive Aging
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Urban Green Space and Health
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Climate variability and models
- Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Climate change and permafrost
- Healthcare Quality and Management
- Urban Design and Spatial Analysis
- Disaster Response and Management
United Nations University
2019-2025
Institute for Environment and Human Security
2019-2025
United Nations
2021
NationsUniversity
2021
Abstract In the last few years, world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological climate hazards. This mainly due complexity drought, high level uncertainties in its analysis, lack community agreement on a common framework tackle problem. Here, we outline effectively assess manage risks, perspective needed. We propose...
Impact-based early warning (IbEW) is a novel paradigm that aims at improving the efficacy of systems by informing about potential impacts on people, assets and systems, instead only focusing forecasting hazards. While applications are emerging, multiple challenges still remain to develop risk-informed, impact-based warnings useful for triggering actions. Conceptual risk models, such as impact chains or webs, tools increasingly used in assessments inform management adaptation, can provide...
The World Drought Atlas is a new flagship report, produced in collaboration with the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), European Commission, and other partners, which aims raise awareness of drought risk resilience. Formally introduced at UNCCD's 16th Conference Parties Riyadh December 2024, aimed national regional governments policymakers, providing starting point for implementing measures address risks. Using primarily visual materials, to: i) synthesize, map, characterize...
To tackle systemic drought risks, both short-term and long-term decision making that anticipates climate change balances the varying needs availability of water across different sectors is required. Adaptation pathways are a promising approach which can enable this, by indicating how to implement adaptation options progressively depending on risks emerge under hydrological societal conditions. However, for be effective managing they need take into consideration cross-sectoral cross-border...
The efficacy of early warning systems in saving lives and reducing other losses damages is widely recognized. However, these often lack information about the potential impacts on people, assets, systems. Impact-based warnings that consider exposure vulnerabilities could fill this gap, enabling a more effective public response preparedness - notably for vulnerable groups disproportionately affected by climate extremes. increasing cost extremes focus non-economic from change underpins need to...
Multi-risk assessments are being increasingly proposed as a tool to effectively support policy-makers in reducing impacts from natural hazards. The complexity of multi-risk requires assessment approaches capable capturing multiple components risk (e.g., different hazards, exposed elements, and dimensions vulnerability) coherent frame reference, while at the same time providing an intuitive entry point allow participation relevant stakeholders. Contributing emerging literature, we carried out...
In the past decades, and notably last few years, droughts have severely impacted various interconnected socio-economic sectors ecosystems across EU. These impacts encompass, among others, extensive losses in both rain-fed irrigated agriculture, challenges constraints public water supply, disruptions inland shipping, diminished production of hydropower thermoelectric energy, impaired functioning terrestrial freshwater ecosystems, implications for tourism industry. order to better prepare...
Emergent complex climate risks challenge conventional approaches for adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR). This situation demands new ways of addressing with integrated solutions. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are promising CCA DRR given their cost-effectiveness, multifunctionality low-regret condition in a wide range exacerbated by change. However, little attention has been paid to exploring methodological combining NbS reduce risks. Still, selecting the appropriate effective...
Current rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help stimulate future-oriented decision-making exploring alternative development scenarios. With example of coastal city Monastir, we results an integrated growth analysis that combines SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion,...
EGU23-3461 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3461 EGU General Assembly 2023 © Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
In recent years, research on drought risk has expanded to include multiple types of hazards, various exposed elements and a multitude factors that determine the vulnerability given system or sector. This resulted in call from scientific community adopt systemic perspective drought. However, thorough understanding how risks manifest, cascade interact across different systems sectors is still lacking, methodological guidance analyse represent these interdependencies does not yet...
In the last few years, world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse impacts on coupled human and natural systems. While agriculture is most affected sector, lack of water due to in our highly interconnected also affects ecosystems, public supply, power generation, tourism, water-borne transport buildings, often non-linear cascading systemic impacts. Moreover, interact other hazards complex ways, for example leading compound heat-drought events, wildfires or aggravated when...
Ecosystems in Europe are increasingly faced with more frequent and intense drought events. The impacts of droughts do not only undermine ecosystem health the provision services, but can lead to deterioration system’s long-term resilience droughts. In order effectively assess, reduce, manage risks posed by on ecosystems, it is first necessary gain a thorough understanding how affect particular ecosystem, what underlying risk drivers root causes are, these interact produce that...
To comprehensively manage the impacts from hazards and disasters, a nuanced understanding of systemic nature risks is needed. The effects natural hazards, climate change other human-generated shocks transcend borders, sectors systems, highlighting interconnected risks. lack resilience in one sector can propagate across multiple sectors, interventions response generate trade-offs unintended negative consequences leading to maladaptation. This emphasises that not only do we need analyse risk...
Abstract. Identifying, characterising and assessing the complex nature of risks is vital to realise expected outcome Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Over past two decades, conceptualization risk has evolved from a hazard-centric perspective one that integrates dynamic interactions between hazards, exposure, systems vulnerabilities response risks. This calls need develop tools methodologies can account such complexity in assessments. However, existing assessment approaches are...
EGU23-5948, updated on 30 May 2023 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5948 EGU General Assembly © Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Under scenarios of urbanization coupled with increasing frequency and intensity natural hazards, urban disaster risk is set to rise. Simulating future expansion can provide relevant information for the development exposure identification targeted reduction adaptation strategies. Here, we present an growth simulation coastal city Monastir, Tunisia. The approach integrates local knowledge a data-driven model simulate sprawl up 2030. A business-as-usual projection used predict based on...
Emergent dynamic climate risks challenge conventional approaches for adaptation and disaster risk reduction. This situation demands new ways of addressing with integrated solutions. However, little attention has been paid to exploring methodological combining measures reduce risks. Still, selecting the appropriate effective combination is a challenging task. research results in geospatial multi-criteria approach developing ecosystem-based packages face change effects applies this innovative...