Abstract Integrated population models ( IPM s) have become increasingly popular for the modelling of populations, as investigators seek to combine survey and demographic data understand processes governing dynamics. These are particularly useful identifying exploring knowledge gaps within life histories, because they allow estimate biologically meaningful parameters, such immigration or reproduction, that were previously unidentifiable without additional data. As s been developed relatively...

ABSTRACT Mortality risk for animals often varies spatially and can be linked to how use landscapes. While numerous studies collect telemetry data on animals, the focus is typically period when are alive, even though there important information that could gleaned about mortality risk. We introduce a thinned spatial point process (SPP) modelling framework couples relative abundance space with formally treat occurrence of events across landscape as process. show this model embedded in...

Abstract Ongoing declines in insect populations have led to substantial concern and calls for conservation action. However, even relatively well studied groups, like butterflies, information relevant species‐specific status risk is scattered across field guides, the scientific literature, agency reports. Consequently, attention resources been spent on a minuscule fraction of diversity, including few butterflies. Here we bring together heterogeneous sources 396 butterfly species provide first...

Evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have long been interested in factors shaping the variation mating behaviour observed nature. Although much of research on this topic has focused consequences mate choice change annual reproductive success, studies a potential positive link between fidelity adult demographic rates comparatively rare. This is particularly true for long-lived birds with multi-year, socially monogamous pair bonds. We used 26-year capture-mark-recapture dataset 3,330 black...

The management of sustainable harvest animal populations is great ecological and conservation importance. Development formal quantitative tools to estimate mitigate the impacts on has positively impacted efforts. vast majority existing models, however, do not simultaneously demographic parameters population trends. Given that drivers are often equal or greater than effects harvest, can covary with this disconnect potential lead flawed inference. In study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models...

Harvest of wild organisms is an important component human culture, economy, and recreation, but can also put species at risk extinction. Decisions that guide successful management actions therefore rely on the ability researchers to link changes in demographic processes anthropogenic or environmental underlie variation parameters. Ecologists often use population models maximum sustained yield curves estimate impacts harvest wildlife fish populations. Applications these usually focus...

Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography important, it often equally critical to understand extent which, conditions underpin these fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate both food availability predation risk may suggest presence trophic interactions influence inferences made from patterns ecological data. Analytical...

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life-history evolution, where can inform our of trade-offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, shed light on evolutionary ecology. The most common approaches rely the multivariate normal distribution, its conjugate inverse Wishart prior distribution. However, for covariance matrix distributions has a strong influence posterior distributions. As an alternative we...

Abstract Evaluating population-level responses to conservation action following large-scale disturbance can improve the efficacy of future habitat measures. In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy storm surges cleared vegetation and opened inlets through barrier islands, Fire Island Westhampton Island, New York, creating Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) habitat. Storm effects prompted an island-wide stabilization project, which had potential negatively affect novel Certain sections were designed...

Abstract Since the initial development of robust design, this capture‐recapture model structure has been modified to estimate temporary emigration and expanded include auxiliary information such as band recovery live resight data using maximum likelihood approaches. These developments have allowed investigators separately assess individual group effects on true survival, site fidelity, emigration. Additionally, recent advances in BUGS language researchers develop increasingly complex,...

ABSTRACT Annual survival and recruitment in black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) have declined since the 1990s, yet aerial surveys of global population been stable or even increasing over past decade. We used a combination Lincoln estimator based on harvest information band recoveries, marked‐unmarked ratios bag checks 1 area Mexico to estimate number adults during 1992–2015. produced weighted means from 2 kinds estimates for years which we had data both, with weights equal inverse...

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is an important method in population ecology. A recent paper by Deane et al. (

Abstract Nest‐site fidelity is a common strategy in birds and believed to be adaptive due familiarity with local conditions. Returning previously successful nest sites (i.e., the win‐stay lose‐switch strategy) may beneficial when habitat quality spatially variable temporally predictable; however, changes environmental conditions constrain dispersal decisions despite previous reproductive success. We used long‐term (2000–2017) capture‐mark‐reencounter data hierarchical models examine...

Abstract The increasing use of Bayesian inference in population demography requires rapid advancements modeling frameworks to approach the rigor and flexibility current suite maximum‐likelihood models. We developed an unbiased, Jolly–Seber robust design (JSRD) model that is both accessible generalizable a hierarchical multistate framework. integrated band age‐classification data estimate site entry, temporary emigration, apparent survival rates, as well age‐class specific abundances....

Estimation of trade-offs between current reproduction and future survival fecundity long-lived vertebrates is essential to understanding factors that shape optimal reproductive investment. Black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans) fledge more goslings, on average, when their broods are experimentally enlarged be greater than the most common clutch size four eggs. Thus, we hypothesized lesser frequency clutches exceeding eggs results, at least partially, from a reduction in survival,...

Changes in ecological conditions can induce changes behavior and demography of wild organisms, which turn may influence population dynamics. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nesting colonies on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) western Alaska have declined substantially (~50%) since century. are herbivores that rely heavily Carex subspathacea (Hoppner's sedge) during growth development. The availability C. affects gosling rates, subsequently affect pre- postfledging survival, as well...

The estimation of abundance and distribution factors governing patterns in these parameters is central to the field ecology. continued development hierarchical models that best utilize available information inform processes a key goal quantitative ecologists. However, much remains be learned about simultaneously modeling true abundance, presence, trajectories ecological communities.Simultaneous population dynamics multiple species provides an interesting mechanism examine community and, as...

Abstract As global systems rapidly change, our collective ability to predict future ecological dynamics will become increasingly important for successful natural resource management. By merging stakeholder objectives with system uncertainty, and by adapting actions changing knowledge, adaptive management (ARM) provides a rigorous platform making sound decisions in world. Critically, however, applications of ARM could be improved employing benchmarks (i.e., points reference) determining when...

Abstract Population growth and fitness are typically most sensitive to adult survival in long‐lived species, but variation recruitment often explains of the fitness, as past selection has canalized survival. Estimating juvenile until age independence proven challenging, because marking individuals this class may directly affect For Greater Sage‐grouse, uniquely juveniles first days life likely results adverse effects survival, detection is not perfect, females adopt from other parents. These...

ABSTRACT On average, band recovery rates of adult black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) more than doubled between the 2000s and 2010s. However, spatial distribution recoveries has not been reported. Our objective was to describe since 1990. We found that Alaska, California, Mexico accounted for ≥89% released from Arctic Tutakoke River Colony in southwestern each decade studied. Although increased major harvest region 1990s 2010s, increases were even. For Arctic, rate Alaska gone up...