In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts number foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 15 January 2020, thus we estimated the unreported basic reproduction number, R0, 2019-nCoV.We modelled epidemic curve cases, mainland 2019 24 2020 through exponential growth. was determined maximum likelihood estimation. We used serial intervals...

Asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 is an important topic. A recent study in China showed that transmissibility asymptomatic cases comparable to symptomatic cases. Here, we discuss conclusion may depend on how interpret data. To best our knowledge, this first time relative COVID-19 infections quantified.

The raw case fatality rate (CFR, the reported number of COVID-19 deaths divided by total cases) is an important indicator to quantify severity or treatment efficacy. In many countries, pandemic had experienced two waves date. To our knowledge, no studies have compared CFR between waves. this work, we 53 countries regions with highest death tolls. Of them, 43 lower estimates in ongoing second wave than first wave. We discussed possible reasons. Also, two-wave pattern those influenza....

Abstract In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in very large population low pre-existing immunity. By modeling combination case count survey data, we show that extremely rapidly, at rate 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating an epidemic doubling time 1.6 days ([1.6,...

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, 3144 107 death Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process Korea with a stochastic model, estimated basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 2.9-3.5) under assumption that exponential growth starting on 31 January February 3.3 3.0-3.6) Italy, 10

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus has been persistent in the region since 2012. Abundant scientific evidence showed that dromedary camels are primary host of virus. Majority human cases (i.e., 75% or 88%) due to human-to-human transmission, while others camel-to-human transmission. Mathematical modeling camel-to-camel transmission was lacking. Using plug-and-play likelihood-based inference framework, we fitted a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible model reported...

The 1918 influenza pandemic was characterized by multiple epidemic waves. We investigated into reactive social distancing, a form of behavioral responses, and its effect on the waves in United Kingdom. Two forms distancing have been used previous studies: Power function, which is function proportion recent mortality population, Hill actual number mortality. Using simple model with one common set parameters, we provided good fit for observed London boroughs, Birmingham Liverpool. Our approach...

The HIV epidemic in Hong Kong has worsened recent years, with major contributions from high-risk subgroup of men who have sex (MSM). Internet use is prevalent among the majority local population, where they sought health information online. This study examines impacts HIV/AIDS and MSM news coverage on web search query Kong.Relevant about January 1st, 2004 to December 31st, 2014 was obtained WiseNews databse. News trends were created by computing number relevant articles type, topic, place...

Objective Men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals are the populations fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize epidemic growth age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 Chongqing Shenzhen, Design methods Data were downloaded National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For new diagnoses of MSM both cities, we estimated by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps used show their patterns. histograms compare...

Background Three epidemic waves of influenza A(H7N9) (hereafter 'H7N9') human cases have occurred between March 2013 and July 2015 in China. However, the underlying transmission mechanism remains unclear. Our main objective is to use mathematical models study how seasonality, secular changes environmental play a role spread H7N9 Methods Data on chicken infection were downloaded from EMPRES-i Global Animal Disease Information System. We modelled chicken-to-chicken transmission, assuming...

Background Between January 2015 and August 2016, two epidemic waves of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease swept the Northeastern (NE) region Brazil. As a result, Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) were observed concurrently. The mandatory reporting ZIKV began region-wide in February it is believed that cases significantly under-reported before that. changing rate has made difficult to estimate infection attack rate, studies literature vary widely from 17% > 50%. same applies other key epidemiological...

Abstract Reassortment is an evolutionary process common in viruses with segmented genomes. These can swap whole genomic segments during cellular co-infection, giving rise to novel progeny formed from the mixture of parental segments. Since large-scale genome rearrangements have potential generate new phenotypes, reassortment important both biology and public health research. However, statistical inference pattern events phylogenetic data exceptionally difficult, potentially involving general...

•It was found that the first two major waves of weekly laboratory confirmations MERS-CoV cases closely followed seasonal epidemic influenza A in Middle East.•This finding is important to revealing mechanisms behind seasonality East. As June 24, 2015, there have been 1354 laboratory-confirmed East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection. The reported case September 2012. Since then, sporadic cases, clusters and outbreaks occurred 24 countries, with more than 1000 Saudi Arabia....

Abstract As of 1 March 2020, Iran has reported 987 COVID-19 cases and including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan Pakistan) have imported from Iran. We used air travel data the to other Middle East estimated 16533 (95% CI: 5925, 35538) in by 25 February, before UAE Gulf Cooperation Council suspended inbound outbound flights

We construct a family of genealogy-valued Markov processes that are induced by continuous-time population process. derive exact expressions for the likelihood given genealogy conditional on history underlying These lead to nonlinear filtering equation which can be used design efficient Monte Carlo inference algorithms. demonstrate these calculations with several examples. Existing full-information approaches phylodynamic special cases theory.

Sequential recommendation predicts users' next behaviors with their historical interactions. Recommending longer sequences improves accuracy and increases the degree of personalization. As get longer, existing works have not yet addressed following two main challenges. Firstly, modeling long-range intra-sequence dependency is difficult increasing sequence lengths. Secondly, it requires efficient memory computational speeds. In this paper, we propose a Sparse Attentive Memory (SAM) network...

Meningococcal meningitis (MCM) poses a serious threat to public health in Africa. Epidemics appear irregularly every 5–12 years, especially the regions across sub-Saharan 'meningitis belt'. This study investigated long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of MCM. It appears that dominant epidemic outbreaks belt spread from west east over period 2006–2016.

The raw case fatality rate (CFR, reported number of COVID-19 deaths divided by the cases) is a useful indicator to quantify severity or treatment efficacy in locality. In many countries, pandemic showed two-wave pattern now, namely daily cases once reached low level and now went up. To our knowledge, no study has compared CFR for two waves. this work, we report that 53 countries regions with highest deaths, reduced 43 on-going second wave. We discussed possible reasons. Also, compare weekly...

Abstract The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea has caused 3736 cases and 18 deaths by 1 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process with a stochastic model estimated basic reproduction number R 0 as 2.6 (95%CI: 2.3-2.9) 3.2 2.9-3.5), under assumption that exponential growth starting 31 January 5 February, 2020, respectively. Estimates dispersion term ( k ) were larger than 10 significantly, which implies few super-spreading events..

Influenza affects 10% of the global population annually. Hong Kong is a subtropical city close to North Temperate Zone (NTZ). Influenza-associated mortality rates in were 27.53, 79.55, 36.94, and 48.72 per one million person-years 2014, 2015, 2016, January July 2017, respectively. The aim this study was explore temporal patterns influenza A subtypes both NTZ.Weekly reported cases A/H1N1 A/H3N2 from 2010 2017 downloaded Centre for Health Protection FluNet (provided by World Organization)....