A5025643726- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Cellular Automata and Applications
- Social and Educational Sciences
- Advanced Data Storage Technologies
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Icing and De-icing Technologies
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Digital Transformation in Industry
- Writing and Handwriting Education
- Second Language Acquisition and Learning
- GNSS positioning and interference
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Assembly Line Balancing Optimization
- Model-Driven Software Engineering Techniques
- Historical and Archaeological Studies
- Physical Education and Pedagogy
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Biblical Studies and Interpretation
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
2022-2024
NOAA Environmental Modeling Center
2024
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
2019-2024
University of Gävle
2022-2023
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
2017-2022
University of Colorado Boulder
2019-2022
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory
2020
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
2008-2017
Abstract The aim of this article is to describe the reference configuration convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HARMONIE-AROME, which used for operational short-range forecasts in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden. It developed, maintained, validated as part shared ALADIN–HIRLAM system by a collaboration 26 countries Europe northern Africa on mesoscale NWP. HARMONIE–AROME based AROME developed within...
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy improve quantification forecast uncertainty. Developed initially for numerical prediction, inclusion not only provides estimates uncertainty, but it is also extremely promising reducing longstanding climate biases relevant determining response external forcing. This...
Abstract After extensive efforts over the course of a decade, convective-scale weather forecasts with horizontal grid spacings 1–5 km are now operational at national services around world, accompanied by ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). However, though already operational, capacity for this scale is still to be fully exploited overcoming fundamental difficulty in prediction: three-dimensional and turbulent nature atmosphere. The totally different from that synoptic (10 3 km), slowly...
Abstract A cellular automaton (CA) is introduced to the deep convection parametrization of high‐resolution limited‐area model Aire Limitée Adaptation/Application de la Recherche à l'Opérationnel (ALARO). The self‐organizational characteristics CA allow for lateral communication between adjacent numerical weather prediction (NWP) grid boxes and add additional memory scheme. acts in two horizontal dimensions, with finer spacing than NWP model. It randomly seeded regions where convective...
A realistic representation of mixed-phase clouds in weather and climate models is essential to accurately simulate the model's radiative balance water cycle. In addition, it important for providing downstream applications with physically model data computation of, instance, atmospheric icing on societal infrastructure aircraft. An quantity forecasts supercooled liquid (SLW). this study, we implement elements from Thompson cloud microphysics scheme into numerical prediction HARMONIE-AROME,...
Abstract There is a longstanding challenge in numerical weather and climate prediction to accurately model tropical wave variability, including convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) the Madden–Julian oscillation. For subseasonal prediction, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) has been shown be superior NOAA Global Forecast (GFS) simulating suggesting that ECMWF better at interaction between cumulus convection large-scale...
Abstract In the atmosphere, convection can organize from smaller scale updrafts into more coherent structures on various scales. bulk‐plume cumulus parameterizations, this type of organization has to be represented in terms how resolved flow would “feel” if were present subgrid. This subgrid acts as building blocks for larger tropical convective known modulate local and remote weather. work a parameterization (and cross‐grid) scheme is proposed using stochastic, self‐organizing, properties...
Abstract Because of the limited resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, subgrid-scale physical processes are parameterized and represented by gridbox means. However, some better a mean its variance; typical example is deep convection, with scales varying from individual updrafts to organized mesoscale systems. This study investigates, in an idealized setting, whether cellular automaton (CA) can be used enhance organization forming clusters representative convective thus yield...
A stochastic parametrization for deep convection, based on cellular automata, has been evaluated in the high‐resolution (2.5 km) ensemble prediction system Hirlam Aladin Regional Mesoscale Operational NWP Ensemble Prediction System (HarmonEPS). We studied whether such a physical parametrization, whilst implemented deterministic forecast model, can have an impact performance of uncertainty estimates given by system. Various feedback mechanisms were with respect to spread and skill, both...
Abstract One desirable property within an ensemble forecast system is to have a one-to-one ratio between the root-mean-square error (rmse) of mean and standard deviation (spread). The spread ECMWF prediction has been extrapolated beyond 10 days using simple model for growth. behavior rmse at time deterministic predictability are compared with derived relations infinite length characteristic variability atmosphere in limit predictability. Utilizing this methodology suggests that do not same...
In 2014, a cloudburst hit Malmö City and parts of the city were severely flooded. this study, we assess possibility to forecast event by high-resolution ensemble rainfall-runoff modelling. Meteorological reforecasts are generated convection-permitting HarmonEPS model hydrological response is simulated HYPE model. Although meteorological forecasts manage reproduce observed extreme rainfall intensities, due location errors only weak, low-probability signal high runoff in obtained direct...
Abstract This study outlines the updates made to cumulus convection parameterizations between Global Forecast System, version 16 (GFSv16), and forthcoming GFSv17 which will be first global forecast application become operational under Unified System infrastructure. The updates, addressing known systematic errors biases, incorporate innovations such as stochasticity, three-dimensional subgrid organizational effects, a prognostic closure evolution. changes are shown improve tropical...
Abstract In this study, we propose a physical-process-based stochastic parameterization scheme using cellular automata for NOAA’s Next Generation Global Prediction System. The automata, used to simulate processes such as the production and destruction of subgrid convective elements, are conditioned on unresolved vertical motion that follows prescribed stochastically generated skewed distribution (SGS). SGS is described by differential equation linked observations taking into account first...
Abstract Horizontal diffusion in numerical weather prediction models is, general, applied to reduce noise at the smallest atmospheric scales. In convection-permitting models, with horizontal grid spacing on order of 1–3 km, can improve model skill physical parameters such as convective precipitation. For instance, studies using Applications Research Operations Mesoscale (AROME) have shown an improvement forecasts large precipitation amounts when is falling hydrometeors. The nonphysical...
In-cloud icing can cause damage to infrastructure and is challenging forecast due lack of a good representation supercooled liquid water (SLW) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. We validate the new microphysics scheme, ICE-T, implemented into NWP model HARMONIE-AROME, full 3D simulations running over 3 month period from December 1st 2016 February 28th 2017. Output are first compared with conventional observations evaluate overall quality, then used as input an ice accretion (IAM)...
Abstract A prognostic closure is introduced to, and evaluated in, NOAA’s Unified Forecast System. The addresses aspects that are not commonly represented in traditional cumulus convection parameterizations, it departs from the previous assumptions of a negligible subgrid area coverage statistical quasi-equilibrium at steady state, latter which becomes invalid higher resolution. new parameterization introduces evolution convective updraft fraction based on moisture budget, and, together with...
Abstract The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) is a state-of-the-art infrastructure designed to facilitate community-wide development of atmospheric physics parameterizations, support their interoperability among different modeling centers, and enable the transition research operations in NWP climate modeling. CCPP consists two elements: (a repository parameterizations) Framework (an for interfacing parameterizations with host models). community resource: Its latest release has 23...
The purpose of this paper is to investigate digitalised visual management, with a focus on the relative advantages and disadvantages digital analogue boards in manufacturing. case study was conducted at two different business units within same large multinational company, Sandvik. Data collected through 15 unstructured semi-structured interviews managers machine operators. More than were found. Only are absolute, while other can be counteracted some extent. Currently there shortage studies...
The purpose of this paper is to investigate digitalised visual management, with a focus on the relative advantages and disadvantages digital analogue boards in manufacturing.The case study was conducted at two different business units within same large multinational company, Sandvik.Data collected through 15 unstructured semi-structured interviews managers machine operators.More than were found.Only are absolute, while other can be counteracted some extent.Currently there shortage studies...