A5070078257- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Risk and Safety Analysis
NOAA Environmental Modeling Center
2024
University of Wisconsin–Madison
2010-2022
Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites
2013-2022
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
2019
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
2019
University of Colorado Boulder
2019
Care Institute of Medical Sciences
2016-2018
Abstract In 2011, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began a cooperative initiative with academic community to help address vexing issue that has long been known as disconnection between operational research realms for weather forecasting data assimilation. The is gap, more exotically referred “valley of death,” efforts within broader NOAA’s activities, which are heavily driven by constraints. With stated goals leveraging benefit mission offering path operations...
Abstract Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are derived from satellite-observed motions of clouds and water vapor features. They provide crucial information in regions void conventional observations contribute to forecaster diagnostics meteorological conditions, as well numerical weather prediction. AMVs geostationary (GEO) satellite over the middle latitudes tropics have been utilized operationally since 1980s; polar low‐earth (polar)‐orbiting (LEO) satellites early 2000s. There still exists...
Abstract When producing forecasts by integrating a numerical weather prediction model from an analysis, not all observations assimilated into the analysis improve forecast. Therefore, impact of particular on forecast needs to be evaluated quantitatively provide relevant information about observing system. One way assess observation is use adjoint-based method that estimates each reducing error In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting Model its adjoint are used evaluate several types...
Abstract Atmospheric blocking is associated with sensible weather impacts such as anomalous precipitation and flooding, cold air outbreaks, heat waves. Given the asymmetry in persistence characteristics of anticyclones cyclones, many studies have emphasized role nonlinearities onset maintenance. However, previous demonstrated that both linear nonlinear dynamics can amplify blocks. In this paper structure evolution North Pacific on weekly time scales investigated using two methods:...
Accurate atmospheric 3D wind observations are one of the top priorities for global scientific community. To address this requirement, and to support researchers’ needs acquire analyze data from multiple sources, System Analysis Wind Collocations (SAWC) was jointly developed by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, UMD/ESSIC/CISESS, UW-Madison/CIMSS. SAWC encompasses following: a multi-year archive winds observed Aeolus, sondes, aircraft, stratospheric superpressure balloons, satellite-derived motion vectors,...
Abstract Automated aircraft observations of wind and temperature have demonstrated positive impact on numerical weather prediction since the mid-1980s. With advent Water Vapor Sensing System (WVSS-II) humidity sensor, expanding fleet commercial with onboard automated sensors is also capable delivering high quality moisture observations, providing vertical profiles as ascend out descend into airports across continental United States. Observations from WVSS-II to date only been monitored...
Abstract. The need for highly accurate atmospheric wind observations is a high priority in the science community, particularly numerical weather prediction (NWP). To address this need, study leverages Aeolus lidar level-2B data provided by European Space Agency (ESA) as potential comparison standard to better characterize motion vector (AMV) bias and uncertainty. AMV products from geostationary (GEO) low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites are compared with reprocessed horizontal line-of-sight...
This study examines analysis and forecast impacts in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) from direct assimilation of temperature wind “pseudo-raob” profiles derived fields European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting-Integrated Forecast System (ECWMF-IFS). The pseudo-raob are provided on eight vertical levels 250 hPa to 1000 a 1° × resolution rectilinear grid assimilated as synthetic observation data by NAVGEM at 0000 UTC 1200 an experimental time period 48 days....
Through the use of an adjoint model, sensitivity steering a simulated tropical cyclone (TC) to various aspects model forecast trajectory can be calculated. This calculation, providing priori information about how small perturbations state will impact TC at some future time, provides wealth dynamical importance synoptic-scale features and associated processes modeled that is difficult or impossible obtain by other means. Regions strong are regions where, if errors in exist, those would have...
Abstract The steering of a tropical cyclone (TC) vortex is commonly understood as the advection TC by an “environmental wind.” In past studies, environmental wind vector has been defined horizontal and vertical averaging winds in box centered on TC. components this have proposed response functions to derive adjoint-derived sensitivities zonal meridional steering. appropriateness these adjoint sensitivity studies tested using two-dimensional barotropic model its for 24-h forecast. It found...
"Comments on “Interaction of Typhoon Shanshan (2006) with the Midlatitude Trough from Both Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector and Potential Vorticity Perspectives”" published Dec 2009 by American Meteorological Society.
Abstract The eastern Pacific tropical cyclone basin is typified by a low-level westerly jet with the main development region residing on its northern, cyclonic-shear side. persistent meridional shear of zonal flow associated allows for possibility barotropic conversion energy from mean state into kinetic vortices—possibly contributing to cyclogenesis, but this difficult quantify perturbing model based intuition since there no guarantee that perturbations will favorably interact facilitate...
Abstract To efficiently and effectively prioritize resources, adaptive observations can be targeted by using some objective criteria to estimate the potential impact an initial condition perturbation (or analysis increment) in a specific region would have on future forecast. Several targeting guidance techniques been developed, including total-energy singular vectors (TESV), adjoint-derived sensitivity steering (ADSSV), ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), all of which were tested during...
Abstract The adjoint-derived observation impact method is used as a diagnostic to derive the of assimilated observations on metric representing forecast intensity tropical cyclone (TC). Storm-centered composites and model background state are computed across 6-hourly analysis/forecast cycles compute composite throughout life cycle Hurricane Joaquin (2015) evaluate in situ wind temperature upper lower troposphere, well brightness precipitable water observations, forecasts with lengths from 12...
Abstract. The need for highly accurate atmospheric wind observations is a high priority in the science community, and particular numerical weather prediction (NWP). To address this requirement, study leverages Aeolus LIDAR Level-2B data provided by European Space Agency (ESA) to better characterize motion vector (AMV) bias uncertainty, with eventual goal of potentially improving AMV algorithms. products from geostationary (GEO) low-Earth polar orbiting (LEO) satellites are compared...
Accurate atmospheric 3D wind observations are a high priority in the science community. To address this requirement and to support researchers' needs acquire analyze data from multiple sources, System for Analysis of Wind Collocations (SAWC) was jointly developed by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, UMD/ESSIC/CISESS, UW-Madison/CIMSS. SAWC encompasses multi-year archive global winds observed Aeolus, sondes, aircraft, stratospheric superpressure balloons, satellite-derived motion vectors, archived uniformly...
Through the use of an adjoint model, sensitivity steering a simulated tropical cyclone (TC) to various aspects model forecast trajectory can be calculated. This calculation, providing priori information about how small perturbations state will impact TC at some future time, provides wealth dynamical importance synoptic-scale features and associated processes modeled that is difficult or impossible obtain by other means. Regions strong are regions where, if errors in exist, those would have...
Abstract A method is presented to generate quantitative precipitation estimates over Alaska using kriging merge sparse, unevenly distributed rain gauge observations with forecasts from a three-member ensemble of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. The estimated error variance the analysis computed by starting and then refining in k -fold cross validation an empirically derived inflation factor. combines dynamical model forecast information observational data deliver best...