A5055322401- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Advanced Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
University of Oxford
2018-2024
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2024
Utrecht University
2017
Abstract The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational prediction systems are demonstrably able simulate the detailed physics of heatwave. Here, we leverage these show that human influence on climate made this event at least 8 [2–50] times more likely. At current rate global warming, likelihood such an is doubling every 20 [10–50] years. Given...
Abstract. If the Paris Agreement targets are to be met, there may very few years left for policy makers start cutting emissions. Here we calculate by what year, at latest, one has take action keep global warming below 2 K target (relative pre-industrial levels) year 2100 with a 67 % probability; call this point of no return (PNR). Using novel, stochastic model CO2 concentration and mean surface temperature derived from CMIP5 ensemble simulations, find that cumulative emissions 2015 onwards...
Abstract. This study evaluates the performance of high-resolution (grid sizes 9–28 km for atmosphere; 5–13 ocean) global simulations from EERIE project in representing persistence Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a critical driver Hemisphere climate variability. Using decorrelation timescale SAM index (τ), we compare coupled and atmosphere-only (AMIP) with CMIP6 ERA5 datasets. improve long-standing biases persistence, especially early summer, τ values 9–17 days compared to CMIP6’s 9–32 days....
Abstract. Earth's global mean surface temperature has increased by about 1.0 °C over the period 1880–2015. One of main causes is thought to be increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. If gas emissions are not substantially decreased, several studies indicate that there will a dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate end this century. However, no good quantitative measure determine when it too late start reducing order avoid such interference. In study, we develop method for...
Abstract. If the Paris targets are to be met, there may very few years left for policy makers start cutting emissions. Here, we ask by what year at latest one has take action keep global warming below 2 K target (relative preindustrial levels) 2100 with a 67 % probability; call this Point of No Return (PNR). Using novel, stochastic model CO2 concentration and mean surface temperature derived from CMIP5 ensemble simulations, find that cumulative emissions 2015 onwards not exceed 424 GtC PNR...
<p>The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly grown in recent years. However, when attributing an observed using climate models there are constant questions about the ability model to represent relevant physical processes, and different synoptic situations giving rise same threshold exceedance on a chosen metric.</p> <p>For this reason, been growing interest into forecast-based attribution: operational forecast that successfully predicted...
<p>Air-sea coupling is critical in influencing atmospheric temperature and precipitation. The effect of greenhouse gases has influenced variability extreme events. Understanding quantifying the air-sea feedback on extremes remains unknown.</p><p>In this work we show results obtained from two numerical experiments. We use HadSM4 configuration that couples HadAM4 model at N144 resolution with a Slab Ocean to generate large ensemble (~1000 members)...
<p>Modified frequencies and magnitudes of extreme events due to climate change can have large impacts on societies are therefore a key area current research. Large model ensembles required quantify attribute changes events. Until now, the used for such studies commonly atmosphere-only models forced with time-varying sea surface temperatures (SST) ice. </p><p>This approach is very powerful but presents problems internal physical...