A5091689131- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology
- Viral Infections and Vectors
- Gut microbiota and health
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Disaster Response and Management
- Virology and Viral Diseases
- Leprosy Research and Treatment
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Operations Management Techniques
- Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections
- COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Clostridium difficile and Clostridium perfringens research
- Employment and Welfare Studies
- Child Nutrition and Water Access
- Marine and fisheries research
- Genomics and Phylogenetic Studies
San Francisco Foundation
2015-2024
Virginia Cooperative Extension
2024
North Carolina State University
2024
University of California, San Francisco
2015-2023
Direction de la Météorologie Nationale du Niger
2021
Universidad Católica de Santa Fe
2017-2019
McMaster University
2010-2013
University of California, Davis
2006-2010
University of California, Berkeley
2006-2009
Princeton University
2000-2006
A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little that is currently being applied in practice, because do not address key public health needs, produce probabilistic forecasts, have been evaluated on external data, or provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative challenge assess forecasts seasonal epidemics dengue, a major global problem. Sixteen teams used variety methods and data generate 3...
Mass distribution of azithromycin to preschool children twice yearly for 2 years has been shown reduce childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa but at the cost amplifying macrolide resistance. The effects on gut resistome, a reservoir antimicrobial resistance genes body, twice-yearly administration longer period are unclear.
In the United States, Black Americans are suffering from a significantly disproportionate incidence of COVID-19. Going beyond mere epidemiological tallying, potential for racial-justice interventions, including reparations payments, to ameliorate these disparities has not been adequately explored.
As of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Democratic Republic Congo (DRC) is occurring a longstanding conflict zone and has become second largest EVD history. It suspected that after violent events occur, transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand impact violence on are lacking. Here, we use spatial temporal trends case counts compare rates between health zones have versus not experienced recent during outbreak.
Measles cases continue to occur despite its elimination status in the United States. To control transmission, public health officials confirm measles diagnosis, identify close contacts of infectious cases, deliver interventions (i.e., post-exposure prophylaxis) among those who are eligible, and follow-up with determine overall outcomes. A stochastic network simulation contact tracing was conducted using existing agent-based modeling software a synthetic population high levels immunity order...
Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and characterized peripheral nerve damage skin lesions. The disease classified into paucibacillary (PB) multibacillary (MB) leprosy. 2012 London Declaration formulated the following targets for leprosy control: (1) global interruption of transmission or elimination 2020, (2) reduction grade-2 disabilities in newly detected cases to below 1 per million population at a level 2020. treatable, but diagnosis, access treatment adherence (all...
Abstract Background Mass distributions of oral azithromycin have long been used to eliminate trachoma, and they are now being proposed reduce childhood mortality. The observed benefit appears be augmented with each additional treatment, suggesting a possible community-level effect. Here, we assess whether 2 biannual mass treatments preschool children affect the community’s gut microbiome at 6 months after last distribution. Methods In this cluster-randomized controlled trial, aged 1–60 in...
As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic Congo. Since the beginning October 2018, outbreak has largely shifted into regions which active armed conflict occurred, EVD their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, project short-term long-term course outbreak.
As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic Congo. We used case counts time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size duration with without vaccine use. modeled transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers past particle filtering method generate probabilistic projection conditioned on its trajectory date; high (62%),...
Kinsa Inc. sells Food and Drug Administration–cleared smart thermometers, which synchronize with a mobile application, may aid influenza forecasting efforts. We compare thermometer application data to regional influenza-like illness surveillance from the California Department of Public Health. evaluated correlation between data, tested hypothesis that readings symptom reports provide regionally specific predictions, determined whether improved disease forecasts. Smart are highly correlated...
Substantial heterogeneity in measles outbreak sizes may be due to genotype-specific transmissibility. Using a branching process analysis, we characterize differences transmission by estimating the association between genotype and reproduction number R among postelimination California cases during 2000-2015 (400 cases, 165 outbreaks).Assuming negative binomial secondary case distribution, fit model distribution of using maximum likelihood estimated for multigenotype model.Genotype B3 is found...
Studies have yet to include minimally symptomatic Ebola virus (EBOV) infections and unrecognized disease (EVD) in Ebola-related transmission chains epidemiologic risk estimates. We conducted a cross-sectional, sero-epidemiological survey from October 2015 January 2016 among 221 individuals living quarantined households November 2014 February during the outbreak village of Sukudu, Sierra Leone. Of 48 EBOV-infected persons, 25% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14%-40%) had EBOV 4% CI, 1%-14%)...
The recent increase in measles cases California may raise questions regarding the continuing success of control. To determine whether dynamics is qualitatively different comparison to previous years, we assess 2014-2015 outbreak associated with an Anaheim theme park consistent subcriticality by calculating maximum-likelihood estimates for effective reproduction numbe given this year's outbreak, using Galton-Watson branching process model. We find that after initial transmission event are...
As leprosy elimination becomes an increasingly realistic goal, it is essential to determine the factors that contribute its persistence. We evaluate social and economic as predictors of annual new case detection rates within India, where majority cases occur. used correlation linear mixed effect regressions assess whether poverty, illiteracy, nighttime satellite radiance (an index development), other covariates can explain district-wise rate Grade 2 disability diagnoses. find only weak...
The explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings such as prisons and nursing homes, has highlighted a critical need for effective outbreak prevention mitigation strategies these settings. Here we consider how different types control interventions impact the expected number symptomatic infections due to outbreaks. Introduction disease into resident population from community is modeled stochastic point process coupled branching process, while spread between residents via...
We evaluated the potential antiviral effects of azithromycin on nasopharyngeal virome Nigerien children who had received multiple rounds mass drug administration. found that respiratory burden non-severe acute syndrome coronaviruses was decreased with distributions. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02047981.
The current COVID-19 pandemic has spurred concern about what interventions may be effective at reducing transmission. city and county of San Francisco imposed a shelter-in-place order in March 2020, followed by use contact tracing program policy requiring cloth face masks. We used statistical estimation simulation to estimate the effectiveness these Francisco. estimated that self-isolation other practices beginning time Francisco's reduced reproduction number 35.4% (95% CI, -20.1%-81.4%)....
COVID-19 transmission has been widespread across the California prison system, and at least two of these outbreaks were caused by transfer infected individuals between prisons. Risks individual due to introduction virus within prisons poor conditions have documented. We examine additional risk potentially posed that can lead large-scale spread system if rate is sufficiently high. estimated threshold number transferred per month generate supercritical prisons, a condition could system....