A5006255099- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Climate variability and models
- Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Agricultural Economics and Policy
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Greenhouse Technology and Climate Control
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Soybean genetics and cultivation
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Water resources management and optimization
- Environmental and Agricultural Sciences
- Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
2016-2025
National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences
2010-2022
Tottori University
2022
University of Tsukuba
2006-2008
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
2007
Most studies of the influence weather and climate on food production have examined crop yields. However, influences all components production, includes cropping area (area planted or harvested) intensity (number crops grown within a year). Although yield increases predominantly contributed to increased over recent decades, as well in intensity, especially tropics, played substantial role. Therefore, we need consider these important aspects get more complete understanding future impacts...
Abstract. Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how assess model performance. Here we evaluate simulation results of 14 gridded modeling groups that have contributed historic yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean Global Gridded Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Agricultural Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation compared reference data global, national grid cell scales performance with respect...
Abstract. We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project Agricultural Intercomparison Improvement Project (AgMIP). The includes global simulations yields, phenologies, many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups crops, climate forcing sets, scenarios over historical period from 1948 to 2012. primary outcomes include (1) detailed comparison major differences similarities among models commonly used large-scale impact...
Abstract Droughts represent an important type of climate extreme that reduces crop production and food security. Although this fact is well known, the global geographic pattern drought-driven reductions in poorly characterized. As incidence relatively more severe droughts expected to increase under change, understanding vulnerability a key research priority. Here, we estimate losses maize, rice, soy, wheat from 1983 2009 using empirical relationships among yields, drought index, annual...
While changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are evident, their influence on crop yield variability remains unclear. Here we present a global analysis detecting change attributing it to recent climate using spatially-explicit data sets of historical yields an agro-climatic index based daily weather data. The used here is the sum effective radiation intercepted by canopy during formation stage that includes thresholds for extreme temperatures soil moisture deficit. Results show...
Abstract Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of agricultural sector to feed rapidly growing population and moderate adverse impacts climate change. Indeed, a number studies anticipate reduction crop yield main staple crops region coming decades due global warming. Here, we found that production might have already been affected by change, with significant losses estimated historical past. We used large ensemble simulations derived from an atmospheric...
Although biophysical yield responses to local warming have been studied, we know little about how crop growth-a function of climate and technology-responds global temperature socioeconomic changes. Here, present the growth major crops under conditions from preindustrial levels as simulated by a gridded model. The results revealed that mean yields maize soybean will stagnate with even when agronomic adjustments are considered. This trend is consistent across assumptions. Low-income countries...
Abstract Aim Recent changes in crop yields have implications for future global food security, which are likely to be affected by climate change. We developed a spatially explicit dataset of historical maize, soybean, rice and wheat explore the mean, year‐to‐year variation annual rate change period 1982–2006. Location This study was conducted at scale. Methods modelled spatial patterns grid size 1.125° combining agricultural datasets related calendar harvested area 2000, country yield...
Abstract The use of different bias‐correction methods and global retrospective meteorological forcing data sets as the reference climatology in bias correction general circulation model (GCM) daily is a known source uncertainty projected climate extremes their impacts. Despite importance, limited attention has been given to these sources. We compare 27 temperature precipitation indices over 22 regions world (including land area) near (2021–2060) distant future (2061–2100), calculated using...
Forecasting year-to-year variations in the yields of major crops globally is expected to have utility strengthening ability societies better respond food production shocks and price spikes triggered by climate extremes. However, substantial improvements methodology used global crop forecasting are required realize a reliable operational service. Here, we assess reliability within-season pre-season predictions yield variability obtained applying statistical models seasonal temperature...
The accumulated evidence indicates that agricultural production is being affected by climate change. However, most of the available at a global scale based on statistical regressions. Corroboration using independent methods, specifically process‐based modelling, important for improving our confidence in evidence. Here, we estimate impacts change average yields maize, rice, wheat and soybeans 1981–2010, relative to preindustrial climate. We use results factual non‐warming counterfactual...
Abstract Considering the anticipated rise in wet extremes due to climate change, effective management of flood risks global agriculture necessitates an initial assessment impact floods on crop production. Such estimation can inform development strategies enhance resilience agricultural system against floods, particularly face growing demand for food. To this end, a worldwide calculation inundation areas’ return periods was conducted using river and model output. This information then linked...
Abstract We determined the historical change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from long‐term field trials that represent major types and climatic conditions of northern China. Soil general circulation models were validated using these trial data sets. then applied to predict future SOC 2100 two net primary production (NPP) scenarios (i.e., current NPP or 1% year −1 increase). The conversion rate plant residues was higher single‐cropping sites than double‐cropping sites. prediction...
[1] In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of four regional climate models (NHRCM, NRAMS, TRAMS, and TWRF) one bias correction-type statistical model (CDFDM) for daily precipitation indices under present-day (1985–2004) over Japan on a 20 km grid interval. The evaluated are (1) mean precipitation, (2) number days with ≥1 mm/d (corresponds to wet days), (3) amount per day, (4) 90th percentile (5) ≥90th precipitation. boundary conditions dynamical predictors given from single reanalysis data,...
Abstract Understanding the effects of climate change is vital for food security. Among most important environmental impacts direct effect increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) on crop yields, known as CO fertilization effect. Although several statistical studies have estimated past temperature and precipitation yield at regional scales, impact not well known. We evaluated how soybean yields been enhanced by historical [CO ] increases in three major soybean-producing...
Abstract Drought is a major risk in global agriculture. Building-up soil organic carbon (SOC) enhances fertility and efficient use of rainwater, which can increase drought tolerance food production. SOC management demonstrates its benefit at various locations promising means to achieve security climate mitigation once. However, no assessment potential co-benefits gained from enhancement has been presented. Here we evaluated the extent build-up could reduce agricultural risk. Using...