A5060236040- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Vehicle emissions and performance
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Lanthanide and Transition Metal Complexes
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Cancer Treatment and Pharmacology
- Medical Imaging Techniques and Applications
- Diverse Scientific and Economic Studies
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Analytical Chemistry and Chromatography
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Metal-Catalyzed Oxygenation Mechanisms
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Chemistry and Stereochemistry Studies
- Hormonal Regulation and Hypertension
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Analytical Chemistry and Sensors
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- Nitric Oxide and Endothelin Effects
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Climate variability and models
- Forest Management and Policy
Ritsumeikan University
2013-2025
Kyoto Katsura Hospital
2011-2024
Kyoto University
2009-2024
National Institute for Environmental Studies
2015-2024
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
2024
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2015-2023
Environment and Climate Change Canada
2023
Universidad del Rosario
2023
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2023
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
2023
This paper presents the overview of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, emissions implications. The SSPs are part a new scenario framework, established by climate change research community in order to facilitate integrated analysis future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, mitigation. pathways were developed over last years as joint effort describe plausible major global developments that together would lead different challenges for mitigation adaptation...
• Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on land sector are presented. Integrated Assessment Models have been applied SSPs to assess potential future developments use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. Model results reflect general storylines of indicate a broad range land-use futures. SSP-based use pathways aim at supporting climate research, impact analysis, biodiversity research sustainability science. In future, system will be facing new...
Abstract. Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of Earth's surface, with consequences for climate other ecosystem services. In future, are likely expand and/or intensify further meet growing demands food, fiber, energy. As part World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), international community has developed next generation advanced Earth system models (ESMs) estimate combined effects human...
Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios future emissions trajectories anthropogenic sources, key deliverable the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different species and 13 sectors are provided each scenario with consistent transitions from historical data used in CMIP6 to using automated harmonization before being downscaled provide higher source spatial detail. find that span wide range end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making...
Significance Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In nine included, direction management intensity, area, consumption, international trade responses harmonized crop yield shocks from are similar. However, magnitudes differ significantly. The differences depend model structure, particular specification endogenous effects, land change,...
This study quantifies the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium). SSP3 (regional rivalry) forms main focus of study, which is supposed to face high challenges both in mitigation and adaptation. The AIM model has been selected as quantify marker scenario, a representative case illustrating particular narrative. Multiple parameter assumptions were differentiated across SSPs for quantification. We confirm that...
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand.This paper reviews demand modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating in Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).We compare projections 2050 for various regions products harmonized scenarios socio-economic development, bioenergy expansion.In reference scenario (SSP2), increases by 59 98 percent between 2005...
Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides particulates have significant health impacts well effects on natural anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global regional climate. Long-term scenarios for pollutant are needed inputs to climate models, analysis linking across sectors. In this paper we present methodology results in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We...
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of land-use futures been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison global agro-economic models that harmonized drivers population, GDP, biophysical yields. The allows us ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under socioeconomic climate change scenarios?...
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources differences, 10 economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, bioenergy using common set key drivers. Several conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, comparison results be meaningful, careful analysis interpretation relevant...
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use weather (temperature, solar radiation available to plant, and precipitation). Previous studies change on agriculture have reported substantial differences outcomes such as prices, production, trade arising model specification. This article presents results underlying determinants a comparison exercise with 10...
To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end century. Cost-efficient distribution mitigation across regions economic sectors is typically calculated using a uniform carbon price stabilization scenarios. However, reality such would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess implications change land use sector for...
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact LULC on services provide decision support for policy. These characterized by a high uncertainty terms quantity allocation projected changes, which can severely results assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots uncertainty, based 43 simulations from 11 global-scale models representing wide range assumptions biophysical socioeconomic...
• We examine risks to current agricultural land future changes in water availability. present a multiple model inter-comparison of demand and Eleven percent croplands ten grasslands are at risk from declining Changes diet waste reduction offer buffer against loss food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased requires either an expansion or sufficient production gains resources. However, changing world, reduced availability might undermine improvements crop grass...
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how land depends six distinct drivers (population, wealth,...