A5028333133- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Water resources management and optimization
- Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Agricultural risk and resilience
Tanzania Meteorological Agency
2011-2024
State University of Zanzibar
2023
University of Dar es Salaam
2023
We analyze the potential effect of global warming levels (GWLs) 1.5 °C and 2 above pre-industrial (1861−1890) on mean temperature precipitation as well intra-seasonal extremes over Greater Horn Africa. used a large, 25-member regional climate model ensemble from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment show that, compared to control period 1971−2000, annual near-surface is projected increase by more than 1 most parts Africa, under GWLs respectively. The highest increases are in northern...
Abstract This study examines the effects of 1.5 °C and 2 global warming levels (GWLs) on intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over Greater Horn Africa. The impacts are analysed based outputs a 25-member regional multi-model ensemble from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. climate models were driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Global Models for historical future (RCP8.5) periods. We analyse three major seasons region, namely March–May,...
This study aimed at establishing and quantifying the evolution socio-economic impacts of extreme rainfall events in October 2019. The also focused on ascertaining extent to which Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influenced anomalous over East Africa (EA) It employed Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) methods analyze inter-annual variability EA Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) Pacific with a focus December 2019 season. SVD analysis enabled exploration...
This study focuses on modeling and predicting extreme rainfall based data from the Southern Highlands region, critical for rain-fed agriculture in Tanzania. Analyzing 31 years of annual maximum spanning 1990 to 2020, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model proved be best all stations. Three estimation methods–L-moments, likelihood (MLE), Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)–were employed estimate GEV parameters future return levels. The MCMC approach demonstrated superior performance by...
The assessment of the performance October to December (OND), 2019 rainfall season in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba) with reference local downscaled Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) forecast, regional (Intergovernmental on Development Climate Prediction Application Center (IGAD-ICPAC) weather forecasts were assessed by comparing long term average OND data previous seasons 2016, 2017 2018 as well extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during 1961, 1994, 1997, 2006 for Zanzibar. study...
The Southern Highlands region of Tanzania has witnessed an increased frequency severe flash floods. This study examines rainfall data four stations (Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, and Ruvuma) spanning 30 years (1991–2020) to investigate drivers extreme non-stationarity behavior. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model, commonly used in hydrological studies, assumes constant distribution parameters, which may not be true due climate variability, potentially leading bias quantile estimation. Recent...
This study applies both stationary and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models to analyze annual temperature patterns in four stations of Southern Highlands region Tanzania: Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma over a 30‐year period. Parameter estimates reveal varied distribution characteristics, with the location parameter μ ranging from 28.98 33.44, shape ξ indicating bounded heavy‐tailed distributions. These results highlight potential for conditions, such as heatwaves droughts,...
This study aimed at understanding the impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic variables on maize yield and developing statistical crop model for future prediction over Tanzania. The food security country is basically determined by availability maize. Unfortunately, agriculture mainly rain fed hence highly endangered detrimental consequences climate change variability. Observed data was acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Maize Food Agriculture Organization (FAO). used...
Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events the world, Tanzania Zanzibar particular, with adaptation being only option to reduce impacts. The study focuses on influence of climate variability spatio-temporal rainfall temperature distribution Zanzibar. station observation datasets rainfall, Tmax Tmin acquired from Meteorological Authority (TMA) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) projected model...
This article examines the off season rainfall in northern coast Tanzania (NCT) including Zanzibar which occurred January and February 2020 (JF). Like JF rainfalls of 2001, 2004, 2010, 2016 2018, (2020) was more unique damages loss lives, properties infrastructures. The study used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to examine cause uniqueness 2016, 2018 over NCT Zanzibar. These datasets include monthly mean u, v wind at 850, 700, 500, 200 mb; SSTs, sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, Dipole Mode...
The spatio-temporal analysis of the performance March to May (MAM) 2020 rainfall and its societal implications Northern Coastal Tanzania (NCT) including Zanzibar was investigated. uniqueness October December, 2019 (OND) extension January February, in which coincided with MAM among issues prolonged NCT Zanzibar. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) collaboration Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Reanalysis 1 datasets u (zonal) v (meridional) winds, sea surface temperatures...
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the atmospheric events which may trigger/enhance occurrence of disasters to society in most world basins including Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO). This study analyzed dynamics and impacts Cyclone (TC) Idai (4th-21st March, 2019) devastated SWIO countries. The used Reanalysis 1 products daily zonal (u) meridional (v) winds, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), amount Precipitable Water (PRW), relative humidity (Rh). movements were using wind circulation at 850,...
Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in world southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) particular.The seasonal forecasting TCs TSs for December to March (DJFM) November May (NM) over SWIO were conducted.Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering vorticity at 850 mb derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 fields.Thermodynamic monthly daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) equatorial Standard Oscillation...