Nicola Mulberry

ORCID: 0000-0002-1465-8001
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About
Contact & Profiles
Research Areas
  • COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
  • COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
  • SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
  • Sex work and related issues
  • COVID-19 and Mental Health
  • Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
  • Influenza Virus Research Studies
  • Virology and Viral Diseases
  • Disaster Response and Management
  • HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
  • Slime Mold and Myxomycetes Research
  • Cellular Mechanics and Interactions
  • Infection Control and Ventilation
  • Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
  • 3D Printing in Biomedical Research
  • Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
  • COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
  • Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
  • COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
  • Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
  • Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
  • Single-cell and spatial transcriptomics
  • Genomics and Phylogenetic Studies
  • Innovative Microfluidic and Catalytic Techniques Innovation

ETH Zurich
2025

Simon Fraser University
2019-2023

Extensive non-pharmaceutical and physical distancing measures are currently the primary interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. It is therefore urgent to estimate impact such having. We introduce a Bayesian epidemiological model in which proportion of individuals willing able participate distancing, with timing informed by survey data on attitudes COVID-19. fit our reported COVID-19 cases British Columbia (BC), Canada, five other jurisdictions, using an...

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008274 article EN cc-by PLoS Computational Biology 2020-12-03

In vaccination campaigns against COVID-19, many jurisdictions are using age-based rollout strategies, reflecting the much higher risk of severe outcomes infection in older groups. wake growing evidence that approved vaccines effective at preventing not only adverse outcomes, but also infection, we show such strategies less than prioritize essential workers. This conclusion holds across numerous including cases, hospitalizations, Long COVID (cases with symptoms lasting longer 28 days), deaths...

10.1371/journal.pgph.0000020 article EN cc-by PLOS Global Public Health 2021-10-13

Abstract Extensive physical distancing measures are currently the primary intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. It is therefore urgent to estimate impact such having. We introduce a Bayesian epidemiological model in which proportion of individuals willing and able participate measures, with timing these informed by survey data on attitudes COVID-19. fit our reported COVID-19 cases British Columbia, Canada, using an observation that accounts for both...

10.1101/2020.04.17.20070086 preprint EN cc-by-nc medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) 2020-04-22

Abstract In planning for upcoming mass vaccinations against COVID-19, many jurisdictions have proposed using primarily age-based rollout strategies, where the oldest are vaccinated first and youngest last. wake of growing evidence that approved vaccines effective at preventing not only adverse outcomes, but also infection (and hence transmission SARS-CoV-2), we propose such rollouts both less equitable than strategies prioritize essential workers. We demonstrate target workers earlier...

10.1101/2021.02.23.21252309 preprint EN cc-by-nd medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) 2021-02-25

A combination of recent advancements in molecular recording devices and sequencing technologies has made it possible to generate lineage tracing data on the order thousands cells. Dynamic recorders are able random, heritable mutations which accumulate continuously timescale developmental processes; this genetic information is then recovered using single-cell RNA sequencing. These have potential hold rich phylogenetic due irreversible nature editing process, a key feature employed...

10.1101/2025.01.14.632902 preprint EN cc-by-nc bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) 2025-01-14

Following successful non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) aiming to control COVID-19, many jurisdictions reopened their economies and borders. As little immunity had developed in most populations, re-establishing higher contact carried substantial risks, therefore locations began see resurgence COVID-19 cases. We present a Bayesian method estimate the leeway reopen, or alternatively strength of change required re-establish control, range experiencing different epidemics. estimated timing...

10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100453 article EN cc-by Epidemics 2021-03-19

Recent synthetic biology experiments reveal that signaling modules designed to target cell-cell adhesion enable self-organization of multicellular structures Toda et al (2018 Science 361 156-162). Changes in homotypic arise through contact-dependent networks result sorting an aggregate into two- or three-layered structures. Here we investigate the formation, maintenance, and robustness such context a computational model. To do so, use established model for Notch/ligand within cells set up...

10.1088/1478-3975/abb2dc article EN Physical Biology 2020-08-26

Serial intervals - the time between symptom onset in infector and infectee are a fundamental quantity infectious disease control. However, their estimation requires knowledge of individuals' exposures, typically obtained through resource-intensive contact tracing efforts. We introduce an alternate framework using virus sequences to inform who infected whom thereby estimate serial intervals. apply our technique SARS-CoV-2 from case clusters first two COVID-19 waves Victoria, Australia. find...

10.1038/s41467-023-40544-y article EN cc-by Nature Communications 2023-08-10

Following successful widespread non-pharmaceutical interventions aiming to control COVID-19, many jurisdictions are moving towards reopening economies and borders. Given that little immunity has developed in most populations, re-establishing higher contact rates within between populations carries substantial risks. Using a Bayesian epidemiological model, we estimate the leeway reopen range of national regional have experienced different COVID-19 epidemics. We risks associated with levels...

10.1101/2020.06.12.20129833 preprint EN cc-by-nd medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) 2020-06-14

Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R 0) for COVID-19 are particularly variable in context transmission within locations such as long-term healthcare (LTHC) facilities. We sought to characterize heterogeneity R 0 across known outbreaks these used a unique comprehensive dataset all that occurred LTHC facilities British Columbia, Canada 21 September 2020. estimated 18 with novel Bayesian hierarchical dynamic model susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered individuals, incorporating...

10.1098/rsos.211710 article EN cc-by Royal Society Open Science 2022-01-01

Abstract Estimating key aspects of transmission is crucial in infectious disease control. Serial intervals – the time between symptom onset an infector and infectee are fundamental, help to define rates transmission, estimates reproductive numbers, vaccination levels needed prevent transmission. However, estimating serial interval requires knowledge individuals’ contacts exposures (who infected whom), which typically obtained through resource-intensive contact tracing efforts. We develop...

10.1101/2022.02.23.22271355 preprint EN cc-by-nc medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) 2022-03-03

Controlling the spread of HIV among hidden, high-risk populations such as survival sex workers and their clients is becoming increasingly important in ongoing fight against HIV/AIDS. Several sociological structural factors render general control strategies ineffective these settings; instead, focused prevention, testing treatment which take into account nature work are required. Using a dynamic bipartite network model sexual contacts, we investigate optimal distribution preventative...

10.1098/rsif.2019.0497 article EN Journal of The Royal Society Interface 2019-09-01

Abstract Background Many countries have implemented population-wide interventions such as physical distancing measures, in efforts to control COVID-19. The extent and success of measures has varied. jurisdictions with declines reported COVID-19 cases are moving relax while others continuing intensify reduce transmission. Aim We aim determine the time frame between a change at population level observable impact on cases. Methods examine how long it takes for there be substantial difference...

10.1101/2020.06.14.20131177 preprint EN cc-by-nc medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) 2020-06-16

BackgroundMany countries have implemented population-wide interventions to control COVID-19, with varying extent and success. Many jurisdictions moved relax measures, while others intensified efforts reduce transmission.AimWe aimed determine the time frame between a population-level change in COVID-19 measures its impact on number of cases.MethodsWe examined how long it takes for there be substantial difference cases that occur following physical distancing those would occurred at baseline....

10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.40.2001204 article EN cc-by Eurosurveillance 2021-10-07

The mechanisms behind vaccine-induced strain replacement in the pneumococcus remain poorly understood. There is emerging evidence that distinct pneumococcal lineages can co-colonise for significant time periods, and novel recombinants readily emerge during natural colonisation. Despite this, patterns of post-vaccine are indicative competition between specific lineages. Here, we develop a multiscale transmission model to investigate explicitly how within host dynamics shape observed...

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011755 article EN cc-by PLoS Computational Biology 2023-12-28

Abstract Estimates of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly variable in context transmission within locations such as long-term health care (LTHC) facilities. We sought to characterise heterogeneity across known outbreaks these used a unique comprehensive dataset all that have occurred LTHC facilities British Columbia, Canada. estimated with Bayesian hierarchical dynamic model susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals,...

10.1101/2021.02.01.21249903 preprint EN cc-by medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) 2021-02-05
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