A5041485178- Marine and fisheries research
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Avian ecology and behavior
- Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Marine animal studies overview
- Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies
- Genetic diversity and population structure
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Isotope Analysis in Ecology
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Genetic and phenotypic traits in livestock
- Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Marine and coastal plant biology
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Gulf of Maine Research Institute
2018-2025
University of Massachusetts Amherst
2011-2020
United States Fish and Wildlife Service
2011
Significance Climate change is impacting global fisheries and societies that depend on them. Identifying climate adaptation measures requires understanding how environmental changes management policies interact in driving fishery productivity. Coincident with the recent exceptional warming of northwest Atlantic Ocean, American lobster has become most valuable resource North America. Here we show interactions between waters, ecosystem changes, differences conservation efforts led to...
Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls an increased emphasis on prediction ecology, the potential to accelerate theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide conceptual framework describing how forecasts can energize advance theory. We emphasize opportunities...
The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming ocean regions, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems. We examine distribution 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models project habitat changes downscaled climate models. Our predict widespread losses suitable most species, concurrent substantial northward displacement core habitats >500 km. These include up >70% loss...
Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is increasing diversity volume of biodiversity data training SDMs, little practical guidance available on how to leverage distinct types build robust models. We explored the effect different fit, performance predictive ability SDMs by comparing trained with four a heavily exploited pelagic fish, blue shark (Prionace glauca), in Northwest Atlantic: two fishery dependent...
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have measurable impacts on marine ecosystems and reliant fisheries associated communities. However, how MHWs translate to changes in fishing opportunities the displacement of fleets remains poorly understood. Using vessel tracking data from automatic identification system (AIS), we developed distribution models for two pelagic targeting highly migratory species, U.S. Atlantic longline Pacific troll fleets, understand MHW properties (intensity, size, duration)...
MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsTheme Sections 491:253-264 (2013) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10469 'Stepping stone' pattern in Pacific Arctic tern migration reveals importance of upwelling areas Aly McKnight1,*, Andrew J. Allyn2, David C. Duffy3, B. Irons1 1US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, Alaska 99503, USA 2Department Environmental...
MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsTheme Sections 442:241-253 (2011) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09373 Winter dispersal and activity patterns of post-breeding black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla from Prince William Sound, Alaska Aly McKnight1,*, David B. Irons1, Andrew J. Allyn2, Kelsey M. Sullivan3, Robert Suryan4 1US Fish Wildlife Service, 1011...
Despite widespread interest in describing and forecasting the impacts of climate change on species distributions, poor understanding variables that shape distributions conflicting perspectives role traits play mediating shifts have limited our ability to interpret project changes distributions. Using standardized survey data along northeast US continental shelf, we assessed historical exposure sensitivity 81 marine chordates, arthropods, molluscs 24 sea surface temperature (SST) two seasons....
Species distribution shifts are a widely reported biological consequence of climate-driven warming across marine ecosystems, creating ecological and social challenges. To meet these challenges inform management decisions, we need accurate projections species distributions. Quantitative models (SDMs) routinely used to make projections, while qualitative climate change vulnerability assessments becoming more common. We constructed SDMs, compared SDM expectations from expert assessment,...
MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsTheme Sections 574:211-226 (2017) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12168 Movements and foraging habitats of great shearwaters Puffinus gravis in Gulf Maine Kevin D. Powers1,*, David N. Wiley1, Andrew J. Allyn2,3, Linda Welch4, Robert A. Ronconi5,6 1National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service,...
A key problem in computational sustainability is to understand the distribution of species across landscapes over time. This question gives rise challenging large-scale prediction problems since (i) hundreds have be simultaneously modeled and (ii) survey data are usually inflated with zeros due absence for a large number sites. The tackling both issues simultaneously, which we refer as zero-inflated multi-target regression problem, has not been addressed by previous methods statistics...
Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is increasing diversity volume of biodiversity data training SDMs, little practical guidance available on how to leverage distinct types build robust models. We explored the effect different fit, performance predictive ability SDMs by comparing trained with four a heavily exploited pelagic fish, blue shark ( Prionace glauca ), in Northwest Atlantic: two...
MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsTheme Sections 466:233-247 (2012) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09916 Relationships among Kittlitz’s murrelet habitat use, temperature-depth profiles, and landscape features in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA Andrew J. Allyn1,*, Aly McKnight2, Kevin McGarigal1, Curtice R. Griffin1, Katherine Kuletz2, David B. Irons2...
Despite the rapid development and application of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict responses climate-driven ecosystem changes, we have a limited understanding model predictive performance under novel environmental conditions. We aimed address this gap using simulation experiment evaluate how conditions movement influence SDM predictability. leveraged observed sea surface temperature in California Current Northeast U.S. Shelf large marine ecosystems (LMEs) prescribed...
A key problem in computational sustainability is to understand the distribution of species across landscapes over time. This question gives rise challenging large-scale prediction problems since (i) hundreds have be simultaneously modeled and (ii) survey data are usually inflated with zeros due absence for a large number sites. The tackling both issues simultaneously, which we refer as zero-inflated multi-target regression problem, has not been addressed by previous methods statistics...
Abstract The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming marine ecosystems, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with concomitant changes large-scale currents far-reaching implications for ocean dynamics ecosystems. Here we examine distribution 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models project habitat 2100 three downscaled climate model outputs. Our predict widespread losses suitable most species, concurrent...