ABSTRACT Flood hazard assessment is crucial to mitigate the risks associated with flooding. Integrating levee failure scenarios into these assessments should improve evaluation of flood and enhance resilience communities infrastructure. This research presents a probabilistic approach assess its impact on hazard. Our method includes comprehensive backward erosion overflowing mechanisms, integrated within 1D/2D hydraulic model that simulates propagation breaching. We calculate cumulative...

Abstract Dam safety assessment is a major challenge for engineers specialising in hydraulic works. It now standardised regulations providing hazards studies using probability-based risk analysis procedures. includes two key scientific issues: the modelling of complex mechanisms that occur within works, and structural safety. This paper introduces combined application dam reliability methodologies. combination required completion our work on adaptation methods to dams, strength loading input...

Pore water pressure (PWP) response is significant for evaluating the earth dams’ stability, and PWPs are, therefore, generally monitored. However, due to soil heterogeneity its non-linear behavior within earths, PWP usually difficult estimate predict accurately in order detect a pathology or anomaly of an embankment dam. This study endeavors tackle this challenge through application diverse machine learning (ML) techniques estimating existing The methods employed include random forest (RF)...

A probabilistic method of modeling the floodwater level in a dam reservoir is described purpose this paper to add probability dimension hydraulic loading computations. Unlike standard engineering approach, presented here incorporates two innovative aspects. First, uses hydrological (simulated hydrographs for flood estimation method) based on simulation techniques, generating multiple scenarios. Second, it can address variability at time occurrence event. The generates random set levels from...

ABSTRACT Modelling concrete shear strength is the main difficulty in probabilistic reliability analysis of gravity dam structural safety. The reason arises from lack test data on parameters. This paper proposes a procedure for probability modelling Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) based all tests performed during construction and available data. embraces several methods: statistical RCC density, scatter at different spatial scales, unification, physical formulation intrinsic curve. A case...

Abstract Improving protection against fluvial floods requires a better estimation of levee failure. We developed an assessment method failure probabilities for sliding, backward erosion, and overflowing each represented by fragility curves. tested two approaches to aggregate those curves into global curve respectively using: enveloping Monte‐Carlo simulations. implemented this approach earthen reliability several flood return periods the Bow River in Calgary, Canada. used limit equilibrium...

Slope instability issues could cause severe damage and endanger the population, especially when dams are concerned. Over past years, more refined numerical approaches have been proposed to evaluate slope stability. However, a criterion based on lack of convergence is generally considered compute safety factor with this kind approaches, which may result in dramatic increase overall computation time for probabilistic assessment (e.g., using Monte Carlo simulations that require automation large...

Abstract Levees are large alignment works on which only imperfect information usually available. In this particular context, a probability-based model is suggested for evaluating the levee performance, taking into account data in probabilistic format. Such will implement subjective probabilities that have been elicited by expert assessment to evaluate all criteria and uncertainties thereof. Based deterministic of multicriteria aggregation using Monte Carlo simulations, ultimately help build...

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a methodology to take into account of the dependence between hydraulic loading and shear strength in probability-based procedure for assessing gravity dam structural safety. is major point approach where extreme loadings are determining factor reliability. The proposed uses parabolic formulation concrete strength. It aims at providing better representation intrinsic curve normal stress lower levels that might develop upstream area under hydrostatic conditions....

Abstract Studies carried out to analyse the risks of levees must include an evaluation probabilities occurrence different failure mechanisms. The probabilistic quantitative these mechanisms remains difficult due often insufficient data, natural variability materials, structures that are very long, and unavailability mechanical models for certain This makes it necessary call expert judgement evaluate failure. However, generally has qualitative subjective dimensions, includes biases liable...

This paper presents a laboratory investigation of the strain-dependent cyclic properties compacted tropical residual soil as measured in resonant column and triaxial testing program. The mechanical were evaluated with respect to shear strain amplitude, initial void ratio, confining pressure. It was shown that existing models for prediction modulus reduction damping ratio curves not pertinent case studied. Empirical equations developed small-strain normalized modulus, pore water pressure...

France comprises 10,000 km of river levees. Those levees show highly variable performances caused by the various types design and construction, age, environment, loadings, maintenance repair works performed on them. Available information also varies in quality most often proves to be incomplete, uncertain, or imprecise. Based this, a method for providing quantitative evaluation levee performance is suggested. Such method, based multicriteria decision-making model subjective probabilities,...

In France, levees remain most of the time badly maintained; these long linear structures show signs weaknesses on numerous occasions. Only incomplete information is usually available. The general lack data describing behavior infrastructure during unwanted events led to estimate their safety mainly from expert judgment. Thus ability predict level functioning an for a type hazard and its intensity crucial. An error judgment can have very serious consequences production reliable requires...

Abstract The spatial variability of soil seepage parameters is an essential component the uncertainty earth dams. This paper presents a method for probabilistic backward erosion analysis that considers in dams to assess distribution Factor Safety (FoS) and failure probability ( P f ). In this study, Karhunen-Loeve used generate Random Fields (RFs) hydraulic properties, Monte Carlo simulations (MCs) are realisations these RFs, which then introduced into numerical model results. gradient...

Assessing flood risk requires the combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.  Hence, hazard is a key component assessments. As propagation impacted by hydraulic structures built along river, defense such as levees have gained attention they are rarely included in large scaled However, events hurricane Katrina showcased impact that levee failure has on flow depth, velocity, extent. Therefore, its consideration should be regularly implemented with current assessment methods,...