Abstract People often make predictions about the future based on trends they have observed in past. Revised probabilistic forecasts can be perceived by public as indicative of such a trend. In five studies, we describe experts who various natural events (effects climate changes, landslide and earthquake risks) at two points time. Prognoses that been upgraded or downgraded from T 1 to 2 were all studies expected updated further, same direction, later (at 3 ). Thus, prognoses these enough...

Abstract Probability estimates can be given as ranges or uncertainty intervals, where often only one of the interval bounds (lower upper) is specified. For instance, a climate forecast describe La Niña having “more than 70% chance” “less 90% occurring. In three experiments, we studied how research participants perceived climate‐related forecasts expressed with lower‐bound (“over X% chance”) upper‐bound (“under Y% probability statements. Results indicate that such single‐bound statements give...

Past research has revealed a trend effect when people are faced with revised probabilistic forecast: A forecasted event that become more (vs. less) certain is taken to signal toward even stronger (weaker) certainty in future revisions of the forecast. The present paper expands this finding by exploring boundary conditions and how it affects judgments forecaster. In Study 1, was shown persist receivers process forecast deliberately, considering reasons for revision. 2, continuation predicted...

Abstract Statistical information such as death risk estimates is frequently used for illustrating the magnitude of a problem. Such mortality statistics are however easier to evaluate if presented next an earlier estimate, two data points together will illustrate upward or downward change. How people influenced by changes? In seven experiments, participants read (e.g., number yearly deaths expert‐estimated risks) made at time about various cancer types. Each type was manipulated have either...

Abstract Agreements and disagreements between expert statements influence lay people's beliefs. But few studies have examined what is perceived as a disagreement. We report six experiments where people rated agreement pairs of probabilistic about environmental events, attributed to two different experts or the same at points in time. The differed frame, by focusing on complementary outcomes (45% probability that smog will negative health effects vs. 55% it not such effects), level both...

Abstract Predictions of magnitudes (costs, durations, environmental events) are often given as uncertainty intervals (ranges). When such forecasts judged to be correct? We report results four experiments showing that forecasted ranges expected natural events (floods and volcanic eruptions) perceived accurate when an observed magnitude falls inside or at the boundary range, with little regard its position relative “most likely” (central) estimate. All outcomes fell a wide interval were...

Climate projections and other predictions are often described as outcomes that can happen, indicating possibilities imaginable, but uncertain.Whereas the meanings of uncertainty terms have been extensively studied, uses modal verbs like will rarely examined.Participants in five experiments were shown graphs verbal statements showing future global warming, sea level rise, climaterelated issues.All studies gave support for extremity hypothesis, which states people use can-statements to...

Although daily meat consumption is a widespread habit, many individuals at the same time put high value on welfare of animals. While different psychological mechanisms have been identified to resolve this cognitive tension, such as dissociating animal from consumed or denying animal’s moral status, few studies investigated effects appearance willingness consume its meat. The present article explored how perception cuteness influences hypothetical consumption. We hypothesized that cuter...