Critical metals are technologically vital to the functionality of various emerging technologies, yet they have a potentially unstable supply. This condition calls for strategic planning based on expected long-term demand and supply these implications attached. Here, we provide first systematic review studies (88 in all) exploring projected status critical materials, covering 48 elements with 546 data points global through 2030 2050. Interestingly, results indicate that, date, no outlook is...

Global energy transitions could fundamentally change flows of both minerals and resources over time. It is, therefore, increasingly important to holistically dynamically capture the impacts large-scale on resource including hidden such as mine waste, well direct flows. Here we demonstrate a systematic model that can quantify under transition by using stock-flow dynamics concept Total Material Requirement (TMR). The proposed was applied International Energy Agency's scenarios up 2050,...

Decarbonization strategies for the cement and concrete sector have relied heavily on supply-side technologies, including carbon capture storage (CCS), masking opportunities demand-side intervention. Here we show that cross-cutting involving both supply demand sides can achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 across entire Japanese cycle without resorting to mass deployment of CCS. Our analysis shows a series mitigation efforts side reduce CO

The projected GHG emissions cannot reach the climate goal under any SSP. Further efforts on lowering per capita in-use metal stocks and emission intensity of production promoting recycling are key to achieve goal.

The global transition to fundamentally decarbonized electricity and transport systems will alter the existing resource flows of both fossil fuels metals; however, such a may have unintended consequences. Here we show that decarbonization sectors curtail fuel production while paradoxically increasing extraction associated with metal by more than factor 7 2050 relative 2015 levels. Importantly, approximately 32–40% this increase in is expected occur countries weak, poor, failing governance,...

The current decarbonization strategy for the steel and cement industries is inherently dependent on build-out of infrastructure, including CO2 transport storage, renewable electricity, green hydrogen. However, deployment this infrastructure entails considerable uncertainty. Here we explore global feasible supply within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in infrastructure. Our scenario analysis reveals that despite substantial growth recycling- hydrogen-based...

Greenhouse gas emissions from building construction─i.e., the embodied carbon in buildings─are a significant and growing contributor to climate crisis. However, our understanding of how decarbonize construction remains limited. This study shows that net-zero buildings is achievable across Japan by 2050 using currently available technologies: decarbonized electricity supply, low-carbon steel, concrete, increased timber structures, optimized design, enhanced lifespan. The largest savings would...

As environmental problems associated with energy systems become more serious, it is necessary to address them consideration of their interconnections—for example, the energy-mineral nexus. Specifically, unclear whether long-term scenarios assuming expansion low carbon technology are sustainable in terms resource constraints. However, there few studies that comprehensively analyze possibility constraints process introducing from a perspective. Hence, provide guidelines for technological...

Metals underpin essential functions in modern society, yet their production currently intensifies climate change. This paper develops global targets for metal flows, stocks, and use intensity the economy out to 2100. These are consistent with emissions pathways achieve a 2 °C goal cover six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel). Results indicate that despite advances low-carbon production, transformative system change meet society's needs less is required remain within...

Concrete production poses multiple sustainability challenges, including resource over-exploitation and climate change. Here we show that growing global demand for buildings infrastructure over the past three decades has quadrupled concrete production, reaching ∼26 Gt/year in 2020. As a result, annual requirements virgin aggregates (∼20 Gt/year) exceeded extraction of all fossil fuels (∼15 Gt/year), exacerbating sand scarcity, ecosystem destruction, social conflict. We also despite industry...

Growing expectations are being placed on green hydrogen-based steel for decarbonising the global industry. However, scale of expected demand is dispersed across numerous case studies, resulting in a fragmented picture. This study examines 28 existing scenarios to provide cohesive view future demand. In short term, be limited, constituting 2% current total production by 2030. transformation phase around 2040, marked accelerated growth. By 2050, projected reach 660 Mt (with an interquartile...

Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to Paris agreement on climate and sustainable circulation. Here we develop a step toward simulation energy-materials by unifying stock-flow model using linear programming. The framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines end-of-life (EoL) recycling...

Moving towards a 1.5 °C world could fundamentally alter the future copper cycle through two key drivers: implementation of decarbonization technologies and imposition an emissions budget on production activities. This study explores impact these drivers global using dynamic material flow analysis, coupled with optimization technique. The results show that final demand for increase by factor 2.5 between 2015 2050, reaching 62 million metric tons, approximately 4% coming from used in renewable...

In-use stocks of metals underpin essential services in the world's economy and drive long-term anthropogenic metal cycles. Given this fact, global distribution patterns provide a fundamental basis for examining ways to satisfy basic needs an expanding population within Earth's carrying capacity. Here we show that in-use six major (steel, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead nickel) are distributed very unevenly across 231 countries regions. According our analysis, highest 20% (ordered terms stock...

The foundations of modern society are based on metals, yet their production is currently placing considerable strain the Earth's carrying capacity. Here, we develop a century-long scenario for six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel) harmonized with climate goals, goal establishing science-based targets. We show that metal sector to contribute proportionally emission reductions targets industrial sector, global in-use stocks need converge from current level around 4...

Scrap steel recycling, powered by emission-free electricity, can produce nearly zero-emission at a lower cost than alternative primary production. However, the feasibility of this production method depends on future scrap availability. This study highlights unequal distribution availability worldwide, with Global North having abundant scrap, while South faces impending scarcity unless is imported. By 2050, European Union, America, and developed Asia Oceania could hold stocks end-of-life that...

Decarbonizing the global steel industry hinges on three key limited resources: geological carbon storage, zero-emission electricity and end-of-life scrap. Existing system analysis calls for an accelerated expansion of supply these resources to meet assumed ever-increasing demand. In this study, we propose a different view how decarbonize industry, based principle that resource can only expand in line with historical trends actual construction plans. Our shows production cannot grow any...

In Vietnam, an increase in construction activities together with the absence of recycling-oriented demolition techniques is giving rise to alarming generation and waste. This study scrutinized current state building approaches Hanoi, Vietnam evaluated potential for selective dismantling, or deconstruction, reinforced-concrete (RC) houses. Site observations, direct measurement, interviews were conducted obtain information on technical, environmental, economic characteristics three residential...