A5080328153- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Marine and fisheries research
- CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
University of Colorado Boulder
2022-2023
University of Colorado System
2023
University of Miami
2016-2022
University of Chicago
2016
Abstract The sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic decreased during past century, a remarkable feature known as “warming hole (WH).” It is commonly claimed that WH results from slowdown of meridional overturning circulation. However, using an ensemble Community Earth System Model coupled to slab ocean model simulation, we show atmosphere alone can account for ∼50% observed cooling trend and ∼90% relative change global ocean. We find this caused by increased local...
Abstract. Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and large internal variability of ENSO clouds diagnosis forced observations individual model simulations. By leveraging 14 single initial-condition ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate time-evolving response sea surface temperature (SST) to anthropogenic forcing from each SMILE. We find nonlinear time many considerable inter-model differences...
Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the system, and external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive for NAO a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble commensurate with previously reported state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. system produce similar levels of northern European precipitation SSTs....
Abstract The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) – a basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation in the has dramatic influences on climate 1–8 . Understanding its causes important social-ecological implications. However, driver of AMV and impacts remains debated because limitations current models 9–13 Here we identify systematic interhemispheric SST bias CMIP6 that biased trends large-scale atmospheric circulation rainfall simulations. After removing bias, find simulated...
Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) impacts temperature, precipitation, and extreme events on both sides of the Ocean basin. Previous studies with climate models have suggested that when external radiative forcing is held constant, large-scale ocean atmosphere circulation are associated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies similar characteristics to observed AMV. However, there an active debate as whether these internal fluctuations driven by coupled atmosphere–ocean remain...
Abstract This paper attempts to enhance our understanding of the causes Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). Following literature, we define AMV as SST averaged over North basin, linearly detrended and low-pass filtered. There is an ongoing debate about drivers AMV, which include internal generated from ocean or atmosphere (or both) external radiative forcing. We test role these factors in explaining time history, variance, spatial pattern using a 41-member ensemble fully coupled version...
Abstract North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) exhibit a lagged response to the Oscillation (NAO) in both models and observations, which has previously been attributed changes ocean heat transport. Here we examine relationship between NAO multidecadal variability (AMV) context of two other major components AMV: atmospheric noise external forcing. In preindustrial control runs, generally find that after accounting for spurious signals introduced by filtering, SST is only statistically...
Abstract The modern history of North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows variability coinciding with changes in air and rainfall over the Northern Hemisphere. There is a debate about this and, particular, whether it internal to ocean‐atmosphere system or forced by external factors (natural anthropogenic). Here we present record, obtained using Sr/Ca ratio measured skeleton sclerosponge, that agreement instrumental record past 150 years as well multidecadal last 600 years. Comparison...
Abstract The North Atlantic experiences basin‐wide, multidecadal changes in sea surface temperature (SST), and this SST variability is linked with regional‐to‐continental scale impacts. These impacts often serve as motivation to study the underlying contributors Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, these can be more than motivation—they tools AMV itself. Herein, we consider positive correlation between Florida summertime rainfall (Enfield et al., 2001,...
Abstract. Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and large internal variability of ENSO clouds diagnosis forced observations individual model simulations. By leveraging 14 single initial-condition ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate time evolving response sea surface temperature (SST) to anthropogenic forcing from each SMILE. We find non-linear many considerable inter-model differences...
Abstract The Southwest United States is prone to severe and persistent drought1, but the influence of anthropogenic forcing on current future precipitation remains uncertain2-7. To improve our understanding drivers drought, we quantified temperature changes in southern Rockies combined these with a multi-model ensemble climate simulations for mid-Holocene, past interval when region experienced exceptional drought. Reconstructed mid-Holocene warming consistent existing proxy reconstructions....