A5054707908- Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Media Influence and Politics
- Game Theory and Voting Systems
- Internet Traffic Analysis and Secure E-voting
- Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Media and Politics
- Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Natural Language Processing Techniques
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Semantic Web and Ontologies
- Media Studies and Communication
- Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Mental Health and Psychiatry
- Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Hate Speech and Cyberbullying Detection
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Neurology and Historical Studies
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Auction Theory and Applications
- Behavioral Health and Interventions
- Mental Health Research Topics
Microsoft (United States)
2016-2025
Microsoft Research New York City (United States)
2015-2025
Microsoft Research (United Kingdom)
2011-2024
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
2023
Ross School
2022
University of Michigan
2022
Boston College
2022
Predictive Science (United States)
2022
Yahoo (Spain)
2013
Yahoo (United States)
2012
Fake news emerged as an apparent global problem during the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. Addressing it requires a multidisciplinary effort to define nature and extent of problem, detect fake in real time, mitigate its potentially harmful effects. This will require better understanding how Internet spreads content, people process news, two interact. We review state knowledge these areas discuss broad potential mitigation strategies: enabling individuals identify intervention within...
"Fake news," broadly defined as false or misleading information masquerading legitimate news, is frequently asserted to be pervasive online with serious consequences for democracy. Using a unique multimode dataset that comprises nationally representative sample of mobile, desktop, and television consumption, we refute this conventional wisdom on three levels. First, news consumption any sort heavily outweighed by other forms media comprising at most 14.2% Americans' daily diets. Second, the...
Although it is under-studied relative to other social media platforms, YouTube arguably the largest and most engaging online consumption platform in world. Recently, YouTube's scale has fueled concerns that users are being radicalized via a combination of biased recommendations ostensibly apolitical "anti-woke" channels, both which have been claimed direct attention radical political content. Here we test this hypothesis using representative panel more than 300,000 Americans their...
The results of a pathologic study 24 cases senile psychoses are reported. In all the cerebral cortex showed widespread nonspecific cell changes with less extensive but diffuse losses, an abundance plaques and variable amounts lipoid material. Neurofibril lesions Alzheimer type, usually in small or moderate numbers, occurred two cases. neuroglial reaction was as rule weak. Involvement basal ganglia common. Proliferative alterations vessels were regularly observed regarded secondary...
There is a large body of research on utilizing online activity as survey political opinion to predict real world election outcomes. considerably less work, however, using this data understand topic-specific interest and amongst the general population specific demographic subgroups, currently measured by relatively expensive surveys. Here we investigate possibility studying full census all Twitter during 2012 cycle along with comprehensive search history panel Internet users same period,...
Abstract How accurate are laypeople’s intuitions about probability distributions of events? The economic and psychological literatures provide opposing answers. A classical view assumes that ordinary decision makers consult perfect expectations, while recent research has emphasized biases in perceptions. In this work, we test distributions. To establish a ground truth against which accuracy can be assessed, control the information seen by each subject to unambiguous normative We find...
Among the mental disorders associated with obvious structural damage to brain, psychoses cerebral arteriosclerosis occupy a prominent position. Yet there have been few recent neuropathologic studies devoted primarily this group. Valuable information has contributed on pathogenic aspects of vascular disease; respect psychosis itself little added observations reported by Alzheimer<sup>1</sup>in 1902. This indicates certain degree stagnation in histopathologic research subject. One may wonder...
Alzheimer's disease is still considered a rare and unusual condition in spite of the fact that about one hundred cases have been reported. Most occurred European clinics, though some earliest instances were described American literature. In period from 1916 to 1928 only case1was recorded United States. According our experience, disorder by no means uncommon. Thus, at Foxborough State Hospital approximately 4 per cent all which necropsy was performed proved be disease.2As this hospital draws...
Partisan segregation within the news audience buffers many Americans from countervailing political views, posing a risk to democracy. Empirical studies of online media ecosystem suggest that only small minority Americans, driven by mix demand and algorithms, are siloed according their ideology. However, such research omits comparatively larger television often ignores temporal dynamics underlying consumption. By analyzing billions browsing viewing events between 2016 2019, with novel...
Using the 2008 elections, I explore accuracy and informational content of forecasts derived from two different types data: polls prediction markets. Both data suffer inherent biases, this is first analysis to compare these adjusting for biases. Moreover, expands on previous research by evaluating state-level in Presidential Senatorial races, rather than just national popular vote. Utilizing several estimation strategies, demonstrate that early cycle not-certain races debiased market-based...
Most pollsters base their election projections off questions of voter intentions, which ask "If the were held today, who would you vote for?" By contrast, we probe value probing voters' expectations, typically ask: "Regardless plan to for, do think will win upcoming election?" We demonstrate that polls expectations yield consistently more accurate forecasts than intentions. A small-scale structural model reveals this is because are polling from a broader information set, and voters respond...
Cross-sectional surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before after first debate. Using a unique (in terms of scale, frequency, source) panel survey, we find that daily sample composition varied more response to events than did vote intentions. Multi-level regression post-stratification (MRP) is used correct selection bias. Demographic post-stratification, similar most academic media...
Psychologists have long observed that people conform to majority opinion, a phenomenon sometimes referred as the ‘bandwagon effect’. In political domain learn about prevailing public opinion via ubiquitous polls, which may produce bandwagon effect. Newer types of information – published probabilities derived from prediction market contract prices and aggregated polling summaries similar effects. Consequently, polls can become self-fulfilling prophecies whereby majorities, whether in support...
It is well known among researchers and practitioners that election polls suffer from a variety of sampling nonsampling errors, often collectively referred to as total survey error. Reported margins error typically only capture variability, in particular, generally ignore errors defining the target population (e.g., due uncertainty who will vote). Here, we empirically analyze 4221 for 608 state-level presidential, senatorial, gubernatorial elections between 1998 2014, all which were conducted...
The clinical diagnosis of senile and arteriosclerotic psychoses is discussed on the basis observations in 60 anatomically verified cases. Senile tend to occur at a later age are apt last longer than psychoses. In former course was gradually progressive; latter sudden onset common illness sometimes brief stormy. As rule, intellectual impairment more pronounced conditions. Acute states confusion were typical Unless their manner development known, they cannot always be distinguished from...
We examine key aspects of data quality for online behavioral research between selected platforms (Amazon Mechanical Turk, CloudResearch and Prolific) panels (Qualtrics Dynata). To identify the quality, we first engaged with community to discover which are most critical researchers found these include attention, comprehension, honesty, reliability. then explored differences in two studies (N~4,000), or without filters (approval rating). considerable audiences, especially dishonesty. In Study...
Five cases of Alzheimer's disease are reported and the literature is reviewed. All patients showed profound intellectual deterioration, motor unrest, affective changes a disorder speech. The age onset ranged from 44 to 64. duration illness varied 2½ 26 years. In one case came standstill for more than two Certain observations suggested that exogenous factors could accelerate progress disease. An increase muscle tonus occurred in four cases. One patient presented clinical picture resembling...