Recent drought events underscore the vulnerability of Amazon forests to understorey fires. The long-term impact fires on biodiversity and forest carbon stocks depends frequency fire damages deforestation rates burned forests. Here, we characterized spatial temporal dynamics (1999–2010) (2001–2010) in southern Amazonia using new satellite-based estimates annual activity (greater than 50 ha) 10 ha). Understorey more 85 500 km 2 between 1999 2010 (2.8% all forests). Forests that once accounted...

ABSTRACT Aim In any region affected, fires exhibit a strong seasonal cycle driven by the dynamic of fuel moisture and ignition sources throughout year. this paper we investigate global patterns fire seasonality, which relate to climatic, anthropogenic, land‐cover land‐use variables. Location Global, with detailed analyses from single 1°× 1° grid cells. Methods We use risk index, Chandler burning index (CBI), as an indicator ‘natural’, eco‐climatic across all types ecosystems. A simple...

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten forest's future over next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under current in frontier forests, may accelerate losses from climate-driven dieback deforestation. Far frontiers, scarce fire ignitions high moisture levels preclude significant burning, projected changes increase activity these remote regions. Here, we used model...

Abstract. Vegetation fires have been acknowledged as an environmental process of global scale, which affects the chemical composition troposphere, and has profound ecological climatic impacts. However, considerable uncertainty remains, especially concerning intra inter-annual variability fire incidence. The main goals our global-scale study were to characterise spatial-temporal patterns activity, identify broad geographical areas with similar vegetation dynamics, analyse relationship between...

Abstract Quantification of biogenic carbon fluxes from agricultural lands is needed to generate comprehensive bottom‐up estimates net exchange for global and regional monitoring. We estimated associated with annual crop primary production (NPP), harvested biomass, consumption biomass by humans livestock. These were combined a single estimate spatially distributed 0.05° resolution using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite land cover data. Global NPP in 2011 was at 5.25 ±...

During the 2017 wildfire season in Portugal, unprecedented episodes burned 6% of country’s area and underscored need for a long-term comprehensive solution to mitigate future disasters. In this study, we built calibrated national-scale fire simulation system including underlying fuels weather data used quantify exposure communities natural areas. We simulated 10,000 replicates under extreme generate 1.6 million large perimeters estimate annual burn probability intensity at 100 m pixel...

Abstract. Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity their impacts relies first on realistic model (e.g., incidence interannual variability) second accounting for mortality emissions). In this paper, we focus our understanding describe new model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence weather, vegetation characteristics, human activities stand-alone framework. It was...

Projections of land cover change generated from integrated assessment models (IAM) and other economic-based can be applied for analyses environmental impacts at sub-regional landscape scales. For those IAM economic that project the continental or regional scale, these projections must downscaled spatially distributed prior to use in climate ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts date have been conducted national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) global coarse (0.5°). We...

Fire is a widely used tool to prepare deforested areas for agricultural use in Amazonia. Deforestation currently concentrated seasonal forest types along the ‘arc of deforestation’, where dry‐season conditions facilitate burning clear‐felled vegetation. Interior Amazon forests, however, are less suitable fire‐driven deforestation due more humid climate conditions. These forests will ultimately come under intense pressure as frontier advances. Whether these regions continue be protected by...

Demeter is an open source Python package that was built to disaggregate projections of future land allocations generated by integrated assessment model (IAM). Projected allocation from IAMs traditionally transferred Earth System Models (ESMs) in a variety gridded formats and spatial resolutions as inputs for simulating biophysical biogeochemical fluxes. Existing tools performing this translation generally require number manual steps which introduces error inefficient. makes process seamless...

Abstract. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used to project future societal and environmental scenarios, based on economic modeling detailed representation of food energy production systems. terrestrial module in GCAM represents agricultural activities ecosystems dynamics at the subregional scale, must be downscaled for impact assessments gridded models (e.g., climate models). In this study, we present downscaling algorithm model, which...

The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic natural sources sinks carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely a progressive transition to carbon-efficient technologies reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies maintain or enhance the terrestrial stock in forests other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if sequestration capacity is affected feedbacks, but how what extent little understood. Here,...

Abstract Protected areas ( PA s) cover about 22% of the conterminous United States. Understanding their role on historical land use and change LULCC ) carbon cycle is essential to provide guidance for environmental policies. In this study, we compiled s data explore these interactions within terrestrial ecosystem model TEM ). We found that intensive occurred in States from 1700 2005. More than 3 million km 2 forest, grassland shrublands were converted into agricultural lands, which caused...

Abstract. Biomass burning is an important environmental process with a strong influence on vegetation and the atmospheric composition. It competes microbes herbivores to convert biomass CO2 it major contributor of gases aerosols atmosphere. To better understand predict global fire occurrence, models have been developed coupled dynamic (DGVMs) Earth system (ESMs). We present SEVER-FIRE v1.0 (Socio-Economic natural Vegetation ExpeRimental model version 1.0), which incorporated into SEVER DGVM....

Disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, are critical determinants of forest structure, function, distribution. The vulnerability forests to potential changes in disturbance rates remains largely unknown. Here, we developed a framework for quantifying mapping the rates. By comparing recent estimates observed over sample contiguous US modeled resulting loss, novel index vulnerability, Disturbance Distance, was produced. Sample results indicate that 20% current forestland could be lost if...

Abstract. Vegetation fires have been acknowledged as an environmental process of global scale, which affects the chemical composition troposphere, and has profound ecological climatic impacts. However, considerable uncertainty remains, especially concerning intra inter-annual variability fire incidence. The main goals our global-scale study were to characterise spatial-temporal patterns activity, identify broad geographical areas with similar vegetation dynamics, analyse relationship between...

Abstract. Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Potential changes in fire activity under future climate land use scenarios thus have important consequences for human natural systems. Anticipating these relies first on realistic model (e.g. incidence inter-annual variability) second accounting impacts mortality emissions). Key opportunities remain to develop the capabilities models, which include quantifying influence poorly understood...

The objective of this work is to develop a simple methodology for high resolution crop suitability analysis under current and future climate, easily applicable useful in Least Developed Countries. approach addresses both regional planning the context climate change projections pre-emptive short-term rural extension interventions based on same-year agricultural season forecasts, while implemented with off-the-shelf resources. developed tools are applied operationally case-study three regions...

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten forest's future over next century. Understory forest fires, common under current in frontier forests, may accelerate losses from climate-driven dieback deforestation. Far frontiers, scarce fire ignitions high moisture levels preclude significant burning, projected changes increase activity these remote regions. Here, we used model specifically...

Abstract. Biomass burning is an important environmental process with a strong influence on vegetation and the atmospheric composition. It competes microbes herbivores to convert biomass CO2 it major contributor of gases aerosols atmosphere. To better understand predict global fire occurrence, models have been developed coupled Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) Earth System (ESMs). We present SEVER-FIRE (Socio-Economic natural ExpeRimental model which incorporated into SEVER-DGVM. One...