Lars‐Erik Cederman

ORCID: 0000-0002-8511-0617
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Research Areas
  • Political Conflict and Governance
  • Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
  • Religion and Society Interactions
  • Peacebuilding and International Security
  • Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
  • International Development and Aid
  • International Relations and Foreign Policy
  • European Union Policy and Governance
  • Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
  • Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East
  • Mining and Resource Management
  • Natural Resources and Economic Development
  • Asian Geopolitics and Ethnography
  • Historical and Contemporary Political Dynamics
  • Southeast Asian Sociopolitical Studies
  • Turkey's Politics and Society
  • Social Media and Politics
  • Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
  • American Constitutional Law and Politics
  • Gender, Security, and Conflict
  • Historical Geopolitical and Social Dynamics
  • Electoral Systems and Political Participation
  • Historical Economic and Social Studies
  • Agricultural risk and resilience
  • Geological Modeling and Analysis

ETH Zurich
2016-2025

Princeton University
1997-2022

University of Cambridge
2022

Rice University
2022

Walsh University
2019-2022

Georgetown University
2019-2022

University of Wisconsin–Madison
2012-2017

Institute for Conflict Research
2012-2015

School of International Relations
2013

Ocean Energy (Norway)
2013

Preface. Introduction. 1. A Cosmopolitan Culture?. 2. The Modernist Fallacy. 3. An Ethno--National Revival?. 4. Crisis of the National State. 5. Supra-- or Super--Nationalism?. 6. In Defence Nation. Notes. Bibliography. Index.

10.2307/591103 article EN British Journal of Sociology 1996-12-01

Contemporary research on civil war has largely dismissed the role of political and economic grievances, focusing instead opportunities for conflict. However, these strong claims rest questionable theoretical empirical grounds. Whereas scholars have examined primarily relationship between individual inequality conflict, we argue that horizontal inequalities politically relevant ethnic groups states at large can promote ethnonationalist Extending scope to entire world, this article introduces...

10.1017/s0003055411000207 article EN American Political Science Review 2011-07-11

This article introduces the new Family of Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) data sets, version 2014, which is latest in a series sets on ethnicity that have stimulated civil war research past decade. The EPR provides ethnic groups’ access to state power, their settlement patterns, links rebel organizations, transborder kin relations, and intraethnic cleavages. 2014 does not only extend set’s temporal coverage from 2009 2013, but it also offers several features, such as measure regional autonomy...

10.1177/0022002715591215 article EN Journal of Conflict Resolution 2015-06-18

This paper theorizes the link between ethnicity and conflict. Conventional research relies on ethnolinguistic fractionalization index (ELF) to explore a possible causal connection these two phenomena. However, such approaches implicitly postulate unrealistic, individualist interaction topologies. Moreover, ELF-based studies fail articulate explicit mechanisms of collective action. To overcome difficulties, we introduce new N* ethnonationalist exclusiveness that maps ethnic configurations...

10.1017/s0003055407070086 article EN American Political Science Review 2007-02-01

This article introduces GeoEPR, a geocoded version of the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) dataset that charts politically relevant ethnic groups across space and time. We describe in detail, discuss its advantages limitations, use it replication Cederman, Wimmer Min’s (2010) study on causes ethno-nationalist conflict. show territorial conflicts are more likely to involve settle far away from capital city close border, while these spatial variables have no effect for governmental conflicts.

10.1177/0738894210393217 article EN Conflict Management and Peace Science 2011-02-25

Previous research has focused primarily on how ethnicity may trigger civil war, and its effect conflict duration remains disputed. Rather than treating as a direct consequence of ethnic cleavages, the authors argue that per se does not affect war duration. Instead, depends relationship to political institutions. They employ dyadic approach emphasizes context in which both government leaders nonstate challengers can capitalize ascriptive nature ethnicity. show although states initially...

10.1017/s004388711100030x article EN World Politics 2011-12-20

Whether qualitative or quantitative, contemporary civil-war studies have a tendency to over-aggregate empirical evidence. In order open the black box of state, it is necessary pinpoint location key conflict parties. As contribution this task, article describes data project that geo-references ethnic groups around world. Relying on maps and drawn from classical Soviet Atlas Narodov Mira (ANM), ‘Geo-referencing groups’ (GREG) dataset employs geographic information systems (GIS) represent group...

10.1177/0022343310368352 article EN Journal of Peace Research 2010-05-25

Much of the recent research on civil war treats explanations rooted in political and economic grievances with considerable suspicion claims that there is little empirical evidence any relationship between ethnicity or inequality violence. We argue common indicators used previous research, such as ethno-linguistic fractionalization (ELF) Gini coefficient for income dispersion, fail to capture fundamental aspects exclusion can motivate conflict. Drawing insights from group-level we develop new...

10.1111/isqu.12068 article EN International Studies Quarterly 2013-05-06

This article evaluates the effect of territorial autonomy on outbreak internal conflict by analyzing ethnic groups around world since WWII. Shedding new light an ongoing debate, we argue that critics have overstated case against policies. Our evidence indicates decentralization has a significant conflict-preventing where there is no prior history. In postconflict settings, however, granting can still be helpful in combination with central power sharing arrangements. Yet, its own, concessions...

10.1017/s0003055415000118 article EN American Political Science Review 2015-04-23

Richardson's finding that the severity of interstate wars is power law distributed belongs to most striking empirical regularities in world politics. This a regularity search theory. Drawing on principles self-organized criticality, I propose an agent-based model war and state formation exhibits power-law regularities. The computational findings suggest scale-free behavior depends process technological change leads contextually dependent, stochastic decisions wage war.Early drafts this paper...

10.1017/s0003055403000571 article EN American Political Science Review 2003-02-01

Although the case-based literature suggests that kin groups are prominent in ethnonationalist conflicts, quantitative studies of civil war onset have both overaggregated and underaggregated role ethnicity, by looking at country level instead among specific treating individual countries as closed units, ignoring groups' transnational links. In this article authors integrate links into a dyadic perspective on conflict between marginalized ethnic governments. They argue can increase risk...

10.1017/s0043887109000148 article EN World Politics 2009-05-21

Contemporary conflict research usually measures the influence of ethnicity on by capturing ethnic constellations as country-based indices, such fractionalization or polarization. However, aggregated are likely to conceal actual operation actor-specific mechanisms. In this article, therefore, we introduce a disaggregated model that groups' access power. We do so disaggregating both and level explicitly geo-coded center-periphery dyads. This procedure allows us measure power balance between...

10.1017/s0020818308080181 article EN International Organization 2008-07-01

The contemporary international relations literature links the democratic peace hypothesis to Kant’s famous plan. Yet, whether attempting prove or disprove hypothesis, most quantitative studies have lost sight of important dimensions Kantian vision. I reinterpret as a dynamic and dialectical learning process. In order assess dimension this process (while controlling for exogenous reversals), rely on evidence drawn from popular data sets. conformance with perspective, conflict propensities...

10.1017/s0003055401000028 article EN American Political Science Review 2001-03-01

The hypothesis that democratization triggers political violence has been proposed repeatedly in the quantitative literature, but it remains controversial with respect to both interstate and civil wars. Current empirical research continues be afflicted by methodological data problems related measurement of democracy task detecting changes such scores. In order gain further clarity into link between war, current study introduces a new period-finding algorithm is able detect periods...

10.1177/0022343310368336 article EN Journal of Peace Research 2010-06-01

European integration follows a puzzling stop-and-go pattern that traditional international reations theories cannot fully explain. The predominating paradigms only account for either the achievements or setbacks of process. An information based explanation makes it possible to move beyond structural accounts provided by realist and functionalist scholarship. Such an approach yields solid micro-level foundations bargaining focuses on leaders' use threats in negotiations about regional...

10.1017/s0020818300028332 article EN International Organization 1994-01-01

We introduce the contributions to this special issue on “Disaggregating Civil War.” review problems arising from excessive aggregation in studies of civil war, and outline how disaggregation promises provide better insights into causes dynamics wars, using articles as examples. comment appropriate level disaggregation, lessons learned these articles, issues for further research.

10.1177/0022002709336454 article EN Journal of Conflict Resolution 2009-05-27

Existing research on how democratization may influence the risk of civil war tends to consider only changes in overall level democracy and rarely examines explicitly postulated mechanisms relating incentives for violence. The authors argue that typically highlighted key imply elections should be especially likely affect ethnic groups’ inclination resort Distinguishing between types conflict order competitive elections, find wars are more erupt after first second following periods no polling....

10.1177/0010414012453697 article EN cc-by-nc Comparative Political Studies 2012-09-09

Abstract Postulating grievance‐based mechanisms, several recent studies show that politically excluded ethnic groups are more likely to experience civil conflict. However, critics argue endogeneity may undermine this finding since governments' decisions include or exclude could be motivated by the anticipation of We counter threat inference articulating a causal pathway explains groups' access power independently Focusing on postcolonial states, we exploit differences in colonial empires'...

10.1111/ajps.12236 article EN American Journal of Political Science 2015-12-03

Building on Simmel's theoretical foundations, sociological process theorists continue to challenge mainstream social theory. So far, however, they have rarely relied formal modeling. The author argues that recent advances in computational modeling offer tools explore the emergence of forms Simmelian tradition. Thanks common foundations both epistemology and ontology, these two fields can benefit from drawing more explicitly each other. process‐theoretic tradition theory contemporary...

10.1086/426412 article EN American Journal of Sociology 2005-01-01

This article reviews the literature on civil war. We focus most recent period of scholarly activity, beginning in early 2000s when publication prominent quantitative studies triggered a surge empirical research war as well-defined conceptual category. identify three explanatory logics that have dominated much this and view wars consequence greed, grievances, opportunities, respectively. evaluate arguments findings these theoretical approaches with respect to each main phases war: outbreak,...

10.1177/0022002717721385 article EN Journal of Conflict Resolution 2017-07-26

Are certain ethnic cleavages more conflict-prone than others? While only few scholars focus on the contents of ethnicity, most those who do argue that political violence is likely to occur along religious divisions linguistic ones. We challenge this claim by analyzing path from differences civil war three theoretical steps: (1) perception grievances group members, (2) rebel mobilization, and (3) government accommodation demands. Our argument tested with a new data set records multiple...

10.1177/0022002715600755 article EN Journal of Conflict Resolution 2015-08-26

Previous quantitative research on ethnic civil war relies macro-level proxies in an attempt to specify the conditions under which minorities rebel. Going beyond exclusive focus minorities, present study employs Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as a way model center—periphery dyads that confront governments with excluded groups. We construct and analyze new dataset of geo-referenced politically relevant groups, covering entire world during period from 1951 through 2005. Our results show...

10.1177/0022002709336455 article EN Journal of Conflict Resolution 2009-05-27
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