This paper evaluates the efficiency of betting market pricing for top league soccer matches played behind closed doors during COVID-19 pandemic. The removal crowd component home advantage results in substantial improvement both predictions goal difference and team wins.

If betting markets are efficient, then the expected loss rate on all bets a game can be calculated from quoted odds. Guides to sports tell bettors how do this calculation of predicted rates. We show that if bookmakers set higher profit margins for with lower probabilities winning (as implied by evidence favorite-longshot bias) average rates across than calculation. provide soccer and tennis illustrate consistently conventional

Abstract Previous literature has established the need to separate insider from expert trading in both financial and betting markets. This type of separation proves difficult achieve because experts insiders co‐exist most market settings. Utilizing novel markets which skill bettors are unable use their knowledge, this study uncouples betting, allows more direct measurement than previous empirical tests. Evidence is presented favor some predictions highly cited Shin model trading. Price...

Purpose The Asian Handicap is a way to bet on soccer matches where payouts depend an adjustment the score that favors weaker team. These bets can feature possibility of all or half being refunded and this makes calculation their expected return more complex than for traditional betting home win, away win draw. We examine behavior odds in market. Design/methodology/approach In addition using well-known publicly available source information – which provides average across range bookmakers we...

The support of home spectators is one the contributing factors to advantage effect in sports matches. COVID-19 pandemic led European soccer matches being played without spectators. Contrary previous findings literature, we show that betting markets adjusted promptly account for a reduced both goal difference and probability win. These adjustments proved accurate over large sample subsequently spectators, even though earliest games appeared suggest much bigger change advantage.

Betting markets are efficient if expected payouts on all possible bets an event equal. We compare two regression-based methods for testing efficiency that have been used in previous research: One uses normalized probabilities as the explanatory variable and one inverse of decimal odds. show probability method produces good tests null hypothesis but odds does not, with results biased against finding favorite-longshot bias. illustrate this using regression data outcomes from betting tennis...