Abstract Two‐dimensional flood inundation models are widely used tools for hazard mapping and an essential component of statutory risk management guidelines in many countries. Yet, we still do not know how much physical complexity a model needs given problem. Here, three two‐dimensional explicit hydraulic models, which can be broadly defined as simulating diffusive, inertial or shallow water waves, have been benchmarked using test cases from recent Environment Agency England Wales study,...

Providing timely and accurate maps of surface water is valuable for mapping malaria risk targeting disease control interventions. Radar satellite remote sensing has the potential to provide this information but current approaches are not suitable African malarial mosquito aquatic habitats that tend be highly dynamic, often with emergent vegetation. We present a novel approach both open vegetated bodies using serial Sentinel-1 imagery Western Zambia. This region dominated by seasonally...

Abstract Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response with basic estimates vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range climatic for transmission is more sensitive to precipitation threshold than thermal response curve applied. To address this problem use downscaled daily predictions from seven GCMs run continental-scale hydrological model...

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of thermal constraints on vector

Abstract Background Seasonal floods pose a commonly-recognised barrier to women’s access maternal services, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. Despite their importance, previous GIS models of healthcare have not adequately accounted for floods. This study developed new methodologies incorporating flood depths, velocities, extents produced with model into network- raster-based health models. The were applied the Barotse Floodplain assess impact on walking services vehicular...

Abstract Tens of millions livelihoods depend on floodplains, making them especially vulnerable to climate change. However, understanding how annual floods may change and impact local vulnerabilities remains limited. Daily precipitation temperature projections were obtained from five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) General Circulation Models in the Inter‐Sectoral Inter‐Comparison Project (ISIMIP). These input into a coupled hydrological‐hydraulic model Barotse Floodplain, Zambia...

Future climate changes will alter the geographic locations that are environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The primary driver these shifts is often considered to be thermal constraints and dependencies of both Anopheles mosquitoes act as vectors Plasmodium spp. parasites themselves. availability surface water vector breeding sites also a critical requirement transmission; without bodies, there would no malaria. However, continental scale analyses typically lack any representation...

ABSTRACT While natural flood management (NFM) is becoming more widely used, there remains a lack of empirical evidence regarding its effectiveness. The primary uncertainties arise from two key aspects: first, the determination NFM effectiveness constrained by relatively small catchment scales studied to date; second, combination multiple interventions within may lead peak synchronisation. In this study, both instream and terrestrial were modelled using spatially distributed hydrological...

Abstract Woodlands can reduce downstream flooding, but it is not well known how the extent and distribution of woodland affects reductions in peak flow. We used spatially distributed TOPMODEL to simulate flow during a 1 50 year storm event for range broadleaf scenarios across 2.6 km 2 catchment Northern England. Woodland reduced by 2.6%–15.3% depending on spatial cover. Cross slope riparian resulted larger flow, 4.9% 3.3% 10‐percentage point increase cover respectively, compared 2.7%...

Abstract Natural flood management (NFM) is a method for reducing flooding by using catchment‐based approach to managing risk. Understanding and quantifying the impact of implementing NFM at catchment scale remains ambiguous with clear need robust empirical evidence. A combination fieldwork, laboratory analysis modelling was applied quantify impacts land use changes on hazard. Soil hydraulic conductivity measured under varying regimes used parameterize physically based spatially distributed...

Abstract Background The Barotse floodplains of the upper Zambezi River and its tributaries are a highly dynamic environment, with seasonal flooding transhumance presenting shifting mosaic potential larval habitat human livestock blood meals for malaria vector mosquitoes. However, limited entomological surveillance has been undertaken to characterize community in these their environs. Such information is necessary as, despite substantial deployment insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) indoor...

Abstract. Surface water flooding (SWF) is a severe hazard associated with extreme convective rainfall, whose spatial and temporal sparsity belie the significant impacts it has on populations infrastructure. Forecasting intense rainfall that causes most SWF scales required for effective flood forecasting remains extremely challenging. National-scale forecasts are currently issued UK well regarded amongst responders, but there need complementary enhanced regional information. Here we present...

Abstract The resources of small‐scale community‐based flood risk action groups are often limited, hence studies to model and predict the effects Natural Flood Management restrained by time lack empirical data validate results. As a result, representations hillslope leaky barriers largely modelled as several equifinal approaches, without survey data. geometrical characteristics were surveyed for first at Hardcastle Crags, Calder Valley. This informed six 2D hydraulic representation scenarios...

Abstract Large‐scale floodplains are important features of the African continent. Regular inundation provides means to support large populations but can also present problems such as access health facilities and water body formation that sustain malaria vectors. Modeling these is therefore important, complex. In this research, we develop, calibrate, validate a hydrodynamic model Barotse Floodplain, Upper Zambezi, Zambia. The floodplain has seen recent infrastructure developments including...

Flood modelling is an essential component of risk analysis, with a greater demand for accurate and robust to be undertaken at large spatial scales. Understanding uncertainty in the becomes increasingly critical not only ensuring model results are reliable, but also wider context (re)insurance regulations such as Solvency II. This research investigates how friction parameter impacts on outputs this influences associated evaluations exposure (the estimation damage caused by flood waters),...

Abstract As the frequency and magnitude of storm events increase with climate change, understanding how season management influence flood peaks is essential. The grasslands on peak timing was modelled for Swindale Calderdale, two catchments in northern England. Spatially‐Distributed TOPMODEL used to investigate scenarios across four using empirically‐based soil vegetation data. first scenario applied seasonal changes vegetative roughness, quantifying effect at catchment scale. second...

While natural flood management (NFM) as a resilience mitigation strategy is widely used in the UK and Europe, there remains lack of scientific evidence regarding its effectiveness. The primary uncertainties stem from two aspects: determination NFM effectiveness on limited by scale impact assessment; combination multiple interventions implemented within catchment which may result synchronicity. We argue that combined scenarios involving can vary.  We utilize hydrological model...

Abstract. Surface water flooding (SWF) is a severe hazard associated with extreme convective rainfall, whose spatial and temporal sparsity belies the significant impacts it has on populations infrastructure. Forecasting intense rainfall that causes most SWF scales required for effective flood forecasting remains extremely challenging. National scale forecasts are currently issued UK well regarded amongst responders, but there need complimentary enhanced regional information. Here we present...

Surface water flooding (SWF) presents a significant risk to livelihoods, which is projected increase under climate change. However, forecasting the intense convective rainfall that causes most SWF on temporal and spatial scales required for effective flood remains extremely challenging. National scale forecasts are currently issued England Wales by Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC). The well regarded amongst responders, although they feel would benefit from more location-specific information.We...