The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure hurricane risk perception. utility such lies in the need understand how people make decisions when facing an evacuation order. This included participants located within 15‐mile buffer Gulf southeast Atlantic U.S. coasts. executed as three‐wave panel with mail surveys 2010–2012 (T 0 baseline N = 629, 56%; T 1 retention 427, 75%; 2 350, 89%). An inventory based on psychometric model developed discriminate cognitive affective...

Abstract Intense tropical cyclones often possess relatively little convection around their cores. In radar composites, this surrounding region is usually echo-free or contains light stratiform precipitation. While subsidence typically quite pronounced in region, it not the only mechanism suppressing convection. Another possible leading to weak-echo moats presented paper. The basic idea that strain-dominated flow an intense vortex core creates unfavorable environment for sustained deep, moist...

Abstract Two hurricane eye features that have yet to be adequately explained are the clear‐air moat forms at outer edge of and hub cloud near circulation centre. To investigate whether these can by spatial distribution subsidence field, we derived an analytical solution Sawyer–Eliassen transverse equation for a three‐region approximation with unforced central region intermediate or high inertial stability, diabatically‐forced eyewall far‐field low stability. This isolates conditions under...

Abstract The 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) provided an unprecedented observing network for studying the structure and evolution of monsoon. This paper focuses on multiscale characteristics flow during NAME from large scale to mesoscale using atmospheric sounding data enhanced network. onset summer monsoon over region accompanied typical northward shift upper-level anticyclone or high northern Mexico into southwestern United States, but in this occurred slightly later than...

Abstract Hurricane Dolly (2008) exhibited dramatic inner-core structural variability during a 6-h rapid intensification and deepening event just prior to making landfall in southern Texas at 1800 UTC 23 July. In particular, the eyewall was highly asymmetric from 0634–1243 UTC, with azimuthal wavenumber m = 4–7 patterns radar reflectivity prominent mesovortex polygonal signatures. Evidence is presented that most likely cause of high-wavenumber asymmetries convectively modified form barotropic...

Abstract A collection of images depicting various swirling patterns within low-level cloud decks in hurricane eyes is presented and described. possible causal mechanism for the presence these suggested by comparison observed with evolution passive tracers a simple 2D barotropic model. The model initialized barotropically unstable flow field that imitates flows hurricanes, numerical integration this simulates vigorous mixing between eye eyewall. During process, initially embedded form are...

Five years (1999–2003) of near‐surface QuikSCAT ocean winds over the Gulf California and northeast Pacific Ocean are used to characterize changes in low‐level circulation associated with North American Monsoon. Our analysis shows that onset summer season is accompanied by a seasonal reversal flow along California, establishment time‐mean southerly wind throughout gulf. This reversal, not evident global reanalysis products, occurs late spring precedes monsoonal rains. In core monsoon, found...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the life cycle tropical cyclones in terms a K ‐ V max diagram. Such diagram summarizes time evolution integrated kinetic energy and maximum tangential wind , which respectively measure vortex size intensity. A typical consists an incipient stage slowly increase until ≈25 m s −1 deepening more rapidly ≈60 finally mature continues grow at approximately same rate while remains fixed or even decreases. This can be diagnostically analyzed using theoretical...

Abstract This two‐part study presents a comprehensive analysis of (1) the vortex structure, (2) inner core planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind profile, and (3) overland surface winds Typhoon Faxai (2019) during landfall observationally (Part I) in high‐resolution Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations II). Part II framework for evaluating field WRF by comparing them with observations presented I. First, two different roughness tables are presented. The simulation default table...

The interaction between two tropical cyclones with different core vorticities and sizes is studied the aid of a nondivergent barotropic model, on both f plane sphere. A classification wide range cases presented, using Dritschel–Waugh scheme, which subdivides vortex interactions into five types: elastic interaction, partial straining out, complete merger, merger. type for pair plane, same sphere, was 77 out 80 studied. primary difference results those sphere that vorticity centroid fixed but...

Abstract A positive impact of adding directional information to observations from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNGSS) constellation microsatellites is observed in simulation using a high-resolution nature run an Atlantic hurricane for 4-day period. Directional added two-dimensional variational analysis method (VAM) near-surface vector winds that blends simulated CYGNSS wind speeds with priori background field at 6-h times. The resulting vectors data locations are more...

Abstract Although global and regional dynamical models are used to predict the tracks intensities of hurricanes over ocean, these not currently wind field other impacts land. This two-part study performs detailed evaluations near-surface, overland fields produced in simulations Hurricane Wilma (2005) as it traveled across South Florida. first part describes production two high-resolution using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model, different boundary layer parameterizations available WRF:...

This paper presents high horizontal resolution solutions of an axisymmetric, constant depth, slab boundary layer model designed to simulate the radial inflow and pumping a hurricane. Shock‐like structures increasing intensity appear for category 1–5 hurricanes. For example, in 3 case, term equation motion produces shock‐like structure wind, i.e., near radius maximum tangential wind decreases from approximately 22 m s −1 zero over distance few kilometers. Associated with this large...

Abstract In preparation for the launch of NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), a variety observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were conducted to develop, tune, and assess methods assimilating these novel observations ocean surface winds. From highly detailed realistic hurricane nature run (NR), CYGNSS winds simulated with error characteristics that are expected occur in reality. The OSSE makes use NOAA’s HWRF Model GSI data assimilation configuration was...

This paper examines the usefulness of complementary concepts Rossby length and depth. These are discussed in context idealized analytical solutions transverse circulation equation that arises balanced vortex model tropical cyclones. When its coefficients can be considered as constants, this elliptic partial differential for is solved three different ways: (i) First perform a vertical transform to obtain radial structure equation, from which concept spectrum lengths; (ii) depths; (iii) solve...

Abstract The impact of assimilating ocean surface wind observations from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is examined in a high-resolution Observing Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for tropical cyclones (TCs). CYGNSS planned National Aeronautics and Space Administration constellation microsatellites that utilizes existing GNSS satellites to retrieve speed. In OSSE, speed data are simulated using output “nature run” as truth. case study regional Hurricane Weather...

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80523-1371 E-mail: mcnoldy@atmos.colostate.edu

Abstract This is the second of a two-part study that explores capabilities mesoscale atmospheric model to reproduce near-surface wind fields in hurricanes over land. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model used with two planetary boundary layer parameterizations: Yonsei University (YSU) Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) schemes. first part presented modeling framework initial conditions produce simulations Hurricane Wilma (2005) closely reproduced track, intensity, size its field as it...

Abstract Spontaneous‐adjustment emission of inertia‐gravity waves (IGWs) from unsteady vortical motion in the hurricane core is further examined. An idealized divergent barotropic model simulation conducted an unforced framework using a highly asymmetric potential vorticity (PV) field, consisting offset monopole embedded elliptically shaped ring, which motivated by concentric eyewalls that were observed inner Ivan (2004). The proceeds two phases. first phase marked primarily inner‐core...

Abstract In this study, cycled forecast experiments were performed to assess the ability of different cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes in Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting (HWRF) Model accurately simulate evolution moisture fields during entire life cycle Edouard (2014). The accuracy for each model configuration was evaluated through comparison observed simulated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-13 (GOES-13) infrared brightness temperatures...

High spatial resolution QuikSCAT data are used to examine surface winds, divergence, and vorticity over oceanic regions during the boreal summer. These analyses compared those from earlier observational studies, as well ECMWF NCEP reanalysis products. generally confirm results early studies reanalyses, but add important details our view of circulation in Atlantic East Pacific regions.

Hurricane forecast graphics have the challenging task of communicating information about spatial and temporal uncertainty. Although forecasting accuracy has improved, popular track cone or “Cone Uncertainty” graphic, produced by National Center, is poorly understood general public. A better understanding can potentially assist in timely decisions life-saving actions. This study evaluates impact visualization design, tropical cyclone characteristics, subjective numeracy, graphicacy on visual...

Abstract The accurate interpretation of hurricane risk graphics is expected to benefit public decision-making. To investigate and suggest improvements graphical designs, an interdisciplinary, mixed-methods approach being undertaken. Drawing on a series focus groups with Miami residents that focused understanding interpretations the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) track forecast cone or “Cone Uncertainty,” we developed online survey targeting much larger sample Florida ( n = 2,847)....

Abstract Hurricanes are the costliest type of natural disaster in United States. Every year, these phenomena destroy billions dollars physical capital, displace thousands, and greatly disrupt local economies. While this damage will never be eliminated, number fatalities cost preparing evacuating can reduced through improved forecasts. This paper seeks to establish public’s willingness pay for further improvement hurricane forecasts by integrating atmospheric modeling a double-bounded...