Stephen Blenkinsop
A5042075687- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate change and permafrost
- Water resources management and optimization
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Groundwater flow and contamination studies
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
Newcastle University
2015-2024
Tyndall Centre
2023
University of Newcastle Australia
2009-2013
University of Leicester
2000
Abstract There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in regions seasons. However, little attention given to choice method when examining impacts climate change hydrological systems. This review paper assesses current literature, new developments field specifically impacts. Sections focus concept; methods; comparative methodological studies; modelling extremes; application Consideration then scenario...
Droughts and heatwaves can have profound impacts on society the environment, which be exacerbated by their co-occurrence. However, in China, co-occurrence of droughts has not been explored. Here we assess concurrent drought heatwave events (CONDH) summer across eastern China (EC) for 1962–2015. We found that these are more frequent North South EC (>20 during 1962–2015) less central region. In regions, intensity is ~2–4 times higher conditions than average conditions. Also, two regions number...
Abstract Although it has been documented that daily precipitation extremes are increasing worldwide, faster increases may be expected for subdaily extremes. Here after a careful quality control procedure, we compared trends in hourly and using large network of stations across the United States (U.S.) within 1950–2011 period. A greater number significant annual seasonal maximum were detected from extremes, with primary exception wintertime. Our results also show mean percentage change U.S....
A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows potential for these worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project GEWEX (Global Energy Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize main findings so far suggest future directions research, including: benefits convection-permitting climate...
Using the results from multimodel ensembles enables assessment of model uncertainty in present and future estimates extremes production probabilities for regional or local‐scale change. Six climate (RCM) integrations PRUDENCE ensemble are used together with extreme value analysis to assess changes precipitation over Europe by 2070–2100 under SRES A2 emissions scenario, investigating contribution formulations global (GCM) models scenario uncertainty. RCM ability simulate is evaluated a UK...
Abstract Extreme value theory is used as a diagnostic for two high-resolution (12-km parameterized convection and 1.5-km explicit convection) Met Office regional climate model (RCM) simulations. On subdaily time scales, the 12-km simulation has weaker June–August (JJA) short-return-period return levels than RCM, yet RCM overly large high levels. Comparisons with observations indicate that more successful in representing (multi)hourly JJA very extreme events. As accumulation periods increase...
Abstract One of the key features global climate change will be perturbations to hydrological regime across Europe. To date, assessments impacts future have generally used results from only one model, thus underestimating range possible projected by different models. Here, skill six regional models (RCMs) in reproducing mean precipitation for 1961–1990 period catchments Europe is compared and their projections changes are assessed. A simple drought index based on monthly anomalies also...
Abstract Although observations and modeling studies show that heavy rainfall is increasing in many regions, how changes will manifest themselves on sub‐daily timescales remains highly uncertain. Here, for the first time, we combine observational analysis high‐resolution results to examine extreme intensities urbanized Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. We find hourly of have increased by ~35% over last three decades, nearly 3 times more than surrounding rural areas, with daily showing much weaker...
Abstract Extreme short-duration rainfall can cause devastating flooding that puts lives, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems at risk. It is therefore essential to understand how this type of extreme will change in a warmer world. A significant barrier answering question the lack sub-daily data available global scale. To end, dataset based on gauged observations has been collated. The highly variable its spatial coverage, record length, completeness and, raw form, quality. This presents...
Short periods of intense rainfall may be associated with significant impacts on society, particularly urban flooding. Climate model projections have suggested an intensification precipitation under scenarios climate change. This is in accordance the hypothesis that intensities will increase temperature according to thermodynamic Clausius–Clapyeron (CC) relation (a rate ∼6–7% °C−1)—a warmer atmosphere being capable holding more moisture. Consequently, CC scaling between and extreme has been...
The cover shows a cropped image of the warming stripes (seen in full below), as developed by Ed Hawkins (Reading University, UK).Each vertical line global average temperature whole year, starting at 1850 on far left and ending with 2019 right.The underlying data are from HadCRUT4.6dataset UK Met Office Hadley Centre.To create other regions countries visit https://showyourstripes.
ABSTRACT Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly dataset for the UK based ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. includes tipping bucket gauge Environment Agency (EA), which has collected operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems use of such analysis extreme events include...
Abstract. Historical in situ sub-daily rainfall observations are essential for the understanding of short-duration extremes but records typically not readily accessible and data often subject to errors inhomogeneities. Furthermore, these events poorly quantified projections future climate change making adaptation risk flash flooding problematic. Consequently, knowledge processes contributing intense, is less complete compared with those on daily timescales. The INTENSE project addressing...
Climatological features of observed annual maximum hourly precipitation have not been documented systematically compared to those on daily timescales due observational limitations. Drawing from a quality-controlled database records sampling different climatic regions including the United States, Australia, British Isles, Japan, India and peninsular Malaysia over 1950–2016 period, we examined climatological (AMP) across ranging 1-hr (AMP1−hr) 24-hr (AMP24−hr). Our analysis reveals strong...
Caption: Lightning discharges appear in various colours depending on the scatter of light inside thundercloud and atmosphere.The intracloud lightning centre to be white with a bluish tint, cloud-to-ground discharge below appears orange.The right hand side exhibits green tint that is attributed unique composition hydrometeors thundercloud.The photo was taken late evening 10 September 2013, near Tarragona northeastern Spain.
© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Corresponding author: Robert Dunn / robert.dunn@metoffice.gov.uk