Highly clustered event sequences are observed in certain types of crime data, such as burglary and gang violence, due to crime-specific patterns criminal behavior. Similar clustering by seismologists, earthquakes well known increase the risk subsequent earthquakes, or aftershocks, near location an initial event. Space–time is modeled seismology self-exciting point processes focus this article show that these methods suited for criminological applications. We first review context seismology....

One of the most feared crimes among urban dwellers, armed robbery poses a serious risk injury or death, and presents daunting challenges for law enforcement. Yet little is known about complex factors that motivate assailants who use weapon to take property by force threat force. Armed Robbers in Action not like previous studies focus on often distorted accounts incarcerated offenders. Richard T. Wright Scott H. Decker conducted dangerous, life-threatening field research streets St. Louis...

Governments have implemented social distancing measures to address the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The include instructions that individuals maintain distance when in public, school closures, limitations on gatherings and business operations, remain at home. Social may an impact volume distribution of crime. Crimes such as residential burglary decrease a byproduct increased guardianship over personal space property. domestic violence increase because extended periods contact between potential...

Motivated by empirical observations of spatio-temporal clusters crime across a wide variety urban settings, we present model to study the emergence, dynamics, and steady-state properties hotspots. We focus on two-dimensional lattice for residential burglary, where each site is characterized dynamic attractiveness variable, criminal represented as random walker. The dynamics criminals field are coupled other via specific biasing feedback mechanisms. Depending parameter choices, observe...

The concentration of police resources in stable crime hotspots has proven effective reducing crime, but the extent to which can disrupt dynamically changing is unknown. Police must be able anticipate future location dynamic them. Here we report results two randomized controlled trials near real-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) forecasting, one trial within three divisions Los Angeles Department and other Kent (United Kingdom). We investigate (i) ETAS models short-term risk...

The built environment impacts on the patterns of crime in many different ways. distribution and clustering land uses is thought, theoretical grounds, to play an important role where when crimes occur. This study analysed assault motor vehicle theft relation across more than 60,000 separate parcels a large British Columbia city. Specific land-use types that concentrate routine human activities time space are found act as major generators attractors. Attention these urban mosaic can...

Crime prevention is the professed mission o f every agency found within American criminal justice system. In prac tice, term "prevention" seems to be applied confusingly a wide array of contradictory activities. This confusion can avoided through use conceptual model that defines three levels prevention: (1) primary prevention, directed at modification criminogenic conditions in physical and social environment large; (2) secondary early identification intervention lives individuals or groups...

Stone tool assemblage variability is considered a reliable proxy measure of adaptive variability. Raw material richness, transport distances, and the character transported technologies are thought to signal (1) variation in raw selectivity based on quality abundance, (2) optimization time energy costs associated with procurement stone from spatially dispersed sources, (3) planning depth that weaves forays into foraging activities, (4) risk minimization sees materials quantities forms...

The mechanisms driving the nucleation, spread, and dissipation of crime hotspots are poorly understood. As a consequence, ability law enforcement agencies to use mapped patterns design prevention strategies is severely hampered. We also lack robust expectations about how different policing interventions should impact crime. Here we present mathematical framework based on reaction-diffusion partial differential equations for studying dynamics hotspots. system empirical evidence offenders move...

One million years ago, proboscideans occupied most of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Today, wild elephants are only found in portions sub-Saharan Africa South Asia. Although causes global Pleistocene extinctions order Proboscidea remain unresolved, common explanations involve climatic change and/or human hunting. In this report, we test overkill climate-change hypotheses by using archaeological spatiotemporal patterning proboscidean kill/scavenge sites. Spanning ≈1.8 years, record...

We develop a mathematical framework aimed at analyzing repeat and near-repeat effects in crime data. Parsing burglary data from Long Beach, CA according to different counting methods, we determine the probability distribution functions for time interval τ between offenses. then compare these observed distributions theoretically derived which are due solely persistent risk heterogeneity. find that heterogeneity alone cannot explain distributions, while form of event dependence (boosts) can....

We present a weakly nonlinear analysis of our recently developed model for the formation crime patterns. Using perturbative approach, we find amplitude equations that govern development "hotspot" patterns in system both one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) cases. In addition to supercritical spots already shown exist previous work, prove here existence subcritical hotspots arise via pitchfork bifurcations or transcritical bifurcations, depending on geometry. numerical results...

Within any type of system, the actors in system inevitably compete over resources. With competition comes possibility conflict. To minimize such effects, often will partition into geographic territories. It is against larger ecological backdrop and conflict that we examine territory formation among urban street gangs. Although previous studies have examined social built environment where gangs form, how presence a gang influences local levels violence, know little about competitive...

Racial bias in predictive policing algorithms has been the focus of a number recent news articles, statements concern by several national organizations (e.g., ACLU and NAACP), simulation-based research. There is reasonable that encourage directed police patrols to target minority communities with discriminatory consequences for individuals. However, date there have no empirical studies on used patrol. Here, we test such biases using arrest data from Los Angeles experiments. We find were...

Assessments of the complexity lithic technologies coming from different time periods, regions, or hominid species are recurrent features literature on Paleolithic archaeology. Yet notion is often defined intuitively and qualitatively, which can easily lead to circular arguments makes difficult comparison assemblages across regions periods. Here we propose, in spirit Oswalt's techno-units, that technology be quantified by counting procedural units involved tool manufacture. We define as...