Influenza epidemics lead to increased mortality, principally among elderly persons and others at high risk, in most developed countries, influenza-control efforts focus on the vaccination of this group. Japan, however, once based its policy for control influenza schoolchildren. From 1962 1987, Japanese schoolchildren were vaccinated against influenza. For more than a decade, was mandatory, but laws relaxed 1987 repealed 1994; subsequently, rates dropped low levels. When vaccinated, it is...

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression interpandemic influenza United States over past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with are associated disease transmission rapid than mild ones. The regional infection correlates closely rates movement...

This study sought to quantify influenza-related serious morbidity in pregnant women, as measured by hospitalizations for or death from selected acute cardiopulmonary conditions during predefined influenza seasons. The population included women aged 15-44 years who were enrolled the Tennessee Medicaid program at least 180 days between 1974 and 1993. In a nested case-control study, 4,369 with first event season compared 21,845 controls. odds ratios associated events increased 1.44 (95%...

Almost all deaths related to current influenza epidemics occur among the elderly. However, mortality was greatest young during 1918-1919 pandemic. This study compared age distribution of influenza-related in United States this century's three A pandemics with that following epidemics. Half 1968-1969 (H3N2) pandemic and large proportions 1957-1958 (H2N2) (H1N1) occurred persons <65 years old. group accounted for decrementally smaller first decade each model suggested pattern may be explained...

We expanded the survey conducted by World Health Organization and International Union against Tuberculosis Lung Disease to assess trends in resistance antituberculosis drugs countries on six continents. obtained data using standard protocols from ongoing surveillance or surveys of representative samples all patients with tuberculosis. The sampling techniques distinguished between new previously treated patients, laboratory performance was checked means an international program quality assurance.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the impact recent influenza epidemics on mortality in United States and develop an index for comparing severity individual epidemics. METHODS: A cyclical regression model applied weekly national vital statistics from 1972 through 1992 estimate excesses pneumonia all-cause each season. Each season categorized basis increments 2000 excess deaths, these categories correlated with a range mortality. RESULTS: 20 seasons studied associated...

Until recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 500 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated substantially higher burden, at 290 000-650 influenza-associated from respiratory causes alone, and 2019 99 000-200 lower tract infections directly caused by influenza. Here we revisit global regional estimates explore trends over time geography.We compiled excess for 31 countries representing 5 WHO regions during...

Observational studies report that influenza vaccination reduces winter mortality risk from any cause by 50% among the elderly. Influenza coverage elderly persons (> or =65 years) in United States increased between 15% and 20% before 1980 to 65% 2001. Unexpectedly, estimates of influenza-related this age group also during period. We tried reconcile these conflicting findings adjusting excess for aging circulation A(H3N2) viruses.We used a cyclical regression model generate seasonal national...

The traditional method for assessing the severity of influenza seasons is to estimate associated increase (i.e., excess) in pneumonia and (P&I) mortality. In this study, excess P&I hospitalizations were estimated from National Hospital Discharge Survey Data 26 (1970-1995). average seasonal rate hospitalization was 49 (range, 8-102) /100,000 persons, but rates twice as high during A(H3N2) A(H1N1)/B seasons. Persons aged <65 years had 57% all influenza-related hospitalizations; however, risk...

<h3>Importance</h3> Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in United States have been hampered by state-level differences diagnostic test availability, differing strategies for prioritization individuals testing, delays between testing reporting. Evaluating unexplained increases deaths due all causes or attributed nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia influenza, can provide a more complete picture burden COVID-19. <h3>Objective</h3> To...

Background Assessing the mortality impact of 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but total burden was substantially higher. We estimated through statistical modeling data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings obtained weekly virology underlying cause-of-death time series 2005–2009 20 countries covering ∼35% world population....

There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there renewed interest understanding the drivers of viruses.We review geographic variations seasonality laboratory-confirmed RSV epidemics 137 global locations based literature electronic sources. We assessed peak timing epidemic duration explored their association with geography study settings. fitted time series model to weekly national data available from WHO...

Archeo-epidemiologic research can clarify certain “signature features” of three previous influenza pandemics that should inform both national plans for pandemic preparedness and required international collaborations. Dr. Mark Miller colleagues discuss characteristics are frequently not considered in response plans.

Influenza circulation and mortality impact in tropical areas have not been well characterized. The authors studied the seasonality of influenza throughout Brazil, a geographically diverse country, by modeling influenza-related laboratory surveillance data. Monthly time series pneumonia were obtained from 1979 to 2001 for each 27 Brazilian states. Detrended analyzed Fourier decomposition describe amplitude timing annual semiannual epidemic cycles, resulting seasonal parameters compared across...

The goal of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance is to determine the timing, location and magnitude outbreaks by monitoring frequency progression clinical case incidence. Advances in computational information technology have allowed for automated collection higher volumes electronic data more timely analyses than previously possible. Novel systems, including those based on internet search query like Google Flu Trends (GFT), are being used as surrogates clinically-based reporting...

A better characterization of the early growth dynamics an epidemic is needed to dissect important drivers disease transmission, refine existing transmission models, and improve forecasts.We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model characterize ascending phase outbreak capture profiles ranging from sub-exponential exponential growth. We test against empirical data representing variety viral pathogens in historic contemporary populations, provide simulations highlighting importance for...

ABSTRACT A seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) introduced in the United States 2000 has been shown to reduce invasive disease (IPD) both vaccinated children and adults through induction of herd immunity. We assessed impact infant immunization on pneumonia hospitalizations mortality all age groups using Health Care Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) for 1996 2006 from 10 states; SID contain 100% samples ICD9-coded hospitalization data selected states. Compared...

Infectious disease forecasting is gaining traction in the public health community; however, limited systematic comparisons of model performance exist. Here we present results a synthetic challenge inspired by West African Ebola crisis 2014-2015 and involving 16 international academic teams US government agencies, compare predictive 8 independent modeling approaches. Challenge participants were invited to predict 140 epidemiological targets across 5 different time points 4 outbreaks, each...

We devote a special issue of the Journal Infectious Diseases to review recent advances big data in strengthening disease surveillance, monitoring medical adverse events, informing transmission models, and tracking patient sentiments mobility. consider broad definition for public health, one encompassing information gathered from high-volume electronic health records participatory surveillance systems, as well mining digital traces such social media, Internet searches, cell-phone logs....