Although Europe has experienced unprecedented numbers of refugee arrivals in recent years, there exists almost no causal evidence regarding the impact crisis on natives’ attitudes, policy preferences, and political engagement. We exploit a natural experiment Aegean Sea, where Greek islands close to Turkish coast sudden massive increase arrivals, while similar slightly farther away did not. Leveraging targeted survey 2,070 island residents distance Turkey as an instrument, we find that direct...

Does exposure to the refugee crisis fuel support for extreme-right parties? Despite heated debates about political repercussions of in Europe, there exists very little—and sometimes conflicting—evidence with which assess impact a large influx refugees on natives’ attitudes and behavior. We provide causal evidence from natural experiment Greece, where some Aegean islands close Turkish border experienced sudden drastic increases number Syrian while other slightly farther away—but otherwise...

Click to increase image sizeClick decrease size Notes 1 .For other recent reports in this elections context series, see Fernandes (2011), Haughton et al. Kennedy (2012), Kosiara-Pedersen Little Lutz Quinn and van Holsteyn (2011). 2 .The Greek word for ‘chaos’, featuring on Liberation’s front-page of November 2011 describe Greece’s economic political situation. 3 . One them eventually joined DIMAR the ANEL. 4 Liberals were divided into three different parties, DISY, Drassi (Action) newly...

Children are more likely to adopt their family's political views when politics is important parents, and the children of politically engaged parents tend become adults. When these transmission dynamics considered together, an hypothesis follows: who most initially acquire also later abandon them as a result own engagement with world. Data from Political Socialisation Panel Study provide support for this hypothesis, illuminate its observational implications shed light on mechanisms, pointing...

Party identification is known to influence almost all aspects of political life. How this attachment develops across the adult life cycle, however, remains unknown. I argue that people reinforce their partisan predispositions by voting for preferred party. Voting entails a choice over set alternatives. This likely induce rationalization. In so doing, it provides signals group identity, which in turn strengthens people's ties. Testing hypothesis made difficult because implies reciprocal...

The impressionable years thesis asserts that early adulthood is accompanied by increased attitudinal vulnerability. Although there tentative empirical evidence to support this idea, it remains unclear whether sensitivity due exposure change-inducing circumstances, typically encountered in adulthood, or the weight attached young people new information. I address question, focusing on a political event—the Watergate—that offers test of youth’s heightened susceptibility, holding constant....

Rather than adhering to the cost-benefit calculus often employed in study of turnout, a recent stream this literature refers voting as habit forming. The empirical findings supporting developmental approach are still scarce, however. Using voting-age discontinuities among almost equally aged individuals, enables identification effect one election on turnout future elections. Tracing individuals for more 30 years their lives, long-term early experiences people's profiles is also examined....

How do the labels left and right take on meaning in new democracies? Existing explanations point to universality of left–right scheme or, reversely, emphasize regionally dominant social cleavages. We propose an alternative legacy-focused theory based two observations: Dictatorships are not ideologically neutral negatively evaluated by most citizens elites after democratization. These premises lead us expect that when authoritarian regime is associated with (right), a democracy will display...

Abstract When popular referendums fail to ratify new international agreements or succeed in reversing existing ones, it not only affects domestic voters but also creates negative spillovers for the other parties such agreements. We explore how respond this strategic environment. use original survey data from a poll fielded just one day before 2015 Greek bailout referendum—a referendum which stakes countries were particularly high—to investigate expectations about likely foreign response...

Can leveraging family history reduce xenophobia? Building on theories of group identity, we show that a forced relocation leaves an imprint future generations and can be activated to increase sympathy toward refugees. We provide evidence from Greece Germany, two countries vividly felt the European refugee crisis, witnessed large-scale displacement their own populations during twentieth century. Combining historical survey data with experimental manipulation, mentioning parallels between past...

Abstract Is the quality of democracy undermined or enhanced by party-system fragmentation? Addressing this question would help us better assess normative claims about electoral reforms. Yet, doing so is difficult because endogeneity issues: party systems are endogenous to many other dynamics in a polity. We overcome problem putting forward an instrument for number parties system, based on level fragmentation added that narrowly make it parliament. then test effect democracy, drawing upon...

Within the rapidly growing literature on positioning political parties along policy dimensions, rich data series collected by Comparative Manifestos Project (CMP) has been widely considered as most systematic and objective source of information. For estimating parties’ positions Left—Right dimension alone, several different methods have proposed which make use CMP data. However, unless a new method is proposed, there will seldom be any attempt to check robustness findings across measurement...

A marginal racist organization, Golden Dawn, managed to attract first the votes of almost one out 14 Greek voters and then global media public attention. How did an extreme right groupuscule invade political terrain EU-10 member state? Existing attempts account for this phenomenon point demand-side explanations, related turmoil that followed notorious debt crisis accompanying austerity measures. These however, fail genesis trajectory. We delve into exact question, focusing on election marked...

Despite years of crisis, the euro has enjoyed strong popular support across Eurozone periphery. In light high costs internal devaluation strategies, this begs question why public remained in favor common currency. article, we propose a theoretical mechanism that accounts for both voters’ pocketbook preferences and their sociotropic assessments over noisy trade-offs associated with outcomes membership exit. Using original survey data from three consecutive waves Greece (conducted July,...

Abstract The controversy between proximity and directional models of issue voting has not been settled. Instead appointing an ultimate winner, this article explores the conditioning impact level systemic polarisation provides evidence that is a more relevant determinant voter behaviour in less polarised systems, whereas there centrifugal dynamic contexts. By so doing, shows how largely forgotten notion – namely Sartori's idea spatial elasticity political spectrum leads to different...

Abstract Why are the Basques and Catalans most left-wing societies in Europe? Treating peripheral nationalism ideology as two orthogonal dimensions, literature to date has not yet provided a systematic theoretical account of this pattern. In an attempt fill gap, paper explores how marked meaning these regions. Contrary left, right been treated opponent regional devolution. The findings highlight need revise orthogonality assumption often made when employing dimensions study public opinion...

This article presents a categorization theory of spatial voting, which postulates that voters perceive political stances through coarse classifications. Because think in terms categories defined by the ideological center, their behavior deviates from standard models utility maximization along continua. Their preferences are characterized discontinuities, rewarding parties on side space more than existing would predict. While this study concurs with prior studies suggesting tend to use...

Why does support for mainstream parties decline? A growing literature points to economic loss as a source of political resentment. We bring this explanation one step further. posit that the local economy qualifies role social capital in forging systemic support. When thrives, buffers discontent via interpersonal interactions. declines it exacerbates discontent, leading diffusion grievances. test our “networks grievances” hypothesis two settings. first theory Italy, which offers...

Why are some small parties successful whereas others wither away? Despite the voluminous literature on and party families, we have a limited understanding of what explains success. Most studies tend to emphasize role social cleavages electoral systems. Instead, propose new institutional explanation that treats entering parliament as key resource for parties. Parliamentary entrance signals organizational capacity candidates’ appeal, reduces uncertainty about parties’ ideological profile....

Abstract We perform the first mapping of ideological positions European parties using generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a “zero-shot” learner. ask OpenAI’s Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3.5 (GPT-3.5) to identify more “right-wing” option across all possible duplets at given point in time, solely based on their names and country origin, combine this information via Bradley–Terry model create an ranking. A cross-validation employing widely-used expert-, manifesto- poll-based...