A5013637117- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Income, Poverty, and Inequality
- Environmental Education and Sustainability
- Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Cognitive Science and Mapping
- Process Optimization and Integration
- Municipal Solid Waste Management
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
- Coastal and Marine Management
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Child Nutrition and Water Access
- Economic, financial, and policy analysis
- Economic and Technological Developments in Russia
- Healthcare and Environmental Waste Management
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
Ordu University
2025
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
2017-2024
Radboud University Nijmegen
2021-2024
Delft University of Technology
2012-2018
University College London
2016-2017
Policy Analysis (United States)
2013-2014
The built environment is a key target of decarbonization policies. However, such policies often have narrow objective and focus, resulting in 'policy-resistance' unintended consequences. literature attributes these consequences to financial adverse incentives, inadequate handling knowledge, skills, communication feedback gaps, but it provides little advice on how complex interactions can be captured. This paper illustrates the development application an integrated approach address with...
Abstract Mathematical models have become central to the public and policy debate about recent COVID-19 pandemic. On one hand, they provide guidance policy-makers development of epidemic healthcare demand overtime; on other are heavily criticized for their lack credibility. This commentary reflects three such from a validity usefulness perspective. Specifically, it discusses complexity, validation, communication informing government decisions in UK, US Austria, concludes that, although these...
Progress to-date towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Despite little chance imminent success, past assessments have mostly focused on short- medium-term evaluations, limiting ability explore longer-term effects systemic interactions with time lags delay. Here we undertake global systems modelling a view than previous drivers sustainability progress how they could emerge by 2030, 2050, 2100 under...
Methods to capture the complexity of using policy instruments would allow us better evaluate reasons for their effectiveness. Drawing from science, we produce a Causal Loop Diagram analyse implementation two informational in tourism destination: Global Sustainable Tourism Council criteria and European Indicator Scheme. To interpret emerging system structure, use theory concepts emergence; interdependence interconnectivity; co-evolution; self-organisation; feedback; historicity path...
Qualitative data is an important source of information for system dynamics modeling. It can potentially support any stage the modeling process, yet it mainly used in early steps such as problem identification and model conceptualization. Existing approaches that outline a systematic use qualitative conceptualization are often not adopted reasons time constraints resulting from abundance data. In this paper, we introduce approach synthesizes strengths existing methods. This alternative (i)...
Quantitative modelling is commonly used to assist the policy dimension of sustainability problems. Validation an important step make models credible and useful. To investigate existing validation viewpoints approaches, we analyse a broad academic literature conduct survey among practitioners. We find that empirical data plays role in practice all main areas science. Qualitative participatory approaches can enhance usefulness public reliability are much less visible. Data-oriented prevalent...
Abstract. Positive tipping points are promising leverage in social systems for accelerated progress towards climate and sustainability targets. Besides their impact specific such as energy, food, or norms values, positive dynamics may some cases spread across different systems, amplifying the of interventions. However, cross-system interactions that can create cascades sparsely examined. Here, we review sociotechnical, socioecological, socioeconomic, sociopolitical lead to based on emerging...
Abstract Purpose The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is an invasive and a highly polyphagous species with strong dispersal capacity. Unfortunately, there currently no effective control method that can prevent or reduce the economic loss caused by this pest. Among natural enemies, microsporidia cause infections in insects so they generally shorten life span, fertility inhibit growth. Methods Current study involved field study, light electron microscopy...
Food systems face increasing, multi-dimensional pressures that demand fully integrated assessments of environmental, social, health, nutritional, and economic dimensions to inform their transformation. system models traditionally designed for market-driven optimisation efficiency may not be well suited address these emerging needs, limiting ability support decisions participatory processes effectively. Here we evaluate the extent which current represent food transformations identify...
The increased frequency of extreme weather events – a consequence both man-made climate and land-use changes pushes city governments to implement measures ameliorate the impacts on inhabitants. While are working develop solutions address heat, drought, flooding, these challenges often tackled separately through differing disciplinary lenses. However, individual may either compete with or complement one another; it is critical gain better understanding this interactions.In research,...
Abstract Low-carbon lifestyles are key to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and keeping the Earth in a safe operating space. Understanding global feasibility drivers of low-carbon requires large scale data covering various countries, demographic socioeconomic groups. In this study, we use audience segmentation from Facebook’s advertising platform analyse extent interest sustainable lifestyles, plant-based diets particular, at level. We show that formal education level is...
Non-technical summaryModels are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human–Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with development goals (SDGs). We argue that greater diversity models ought be for sustainability analysis better address complexity and uncertainty. articulate steps model global change socioeconomic climatic scenarios new models. Through these steps, we generate scenario projections using system dynamics model. Our modelling brings insights about...
Abstract Despite high degrees of uncertainty associated with graphical functions, sensitivity analysis these functions has received less attention than parametric analysis. Recently, a promising method was proposed in the literature to generate alternative functional forms, reducing problem that sensitivity. Yet usability for system dynamics not been investigated. We apply this function distortion sample model and identify number shortcomings, such as limited variety forms. then propose...
The Full of Economic-Environment Linkages and Integration dX/dt (FeliX) model is a System Dynamics-based Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), explicitly incorporating human behaviors their dynamic interactions among global systems. This paper presents FeliX 2.0, describing the detailed framework key nine integrated modules. 2.0 refined its original version in population dynamics, food land use systems, socioeconomic settings for poverty analysis. Robust calibration applied to variables against...