Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, reduce contagion by breaking social economic contacts. Policy makers must balance positive health strong distancing measures, such as lockdowns, against their costs, especially burdens imposed on low income food insecure households. The measures deployed South Africa impose large costs have negative implications for factor distribution income....

This paper confirms recent evidence of a positive impact aid on growth and widens the scope evaluation to range outcomes including proximate sources (e.g., physical human capital), indicators social welfare poverty infant mortality), measures economic transformation share agriculture industry in value added). Focusing long-run cumulative effects developing countries, taking due account potential endogeneity, coherent favorable pattern results emerges. Aid has over past 40 years stimulated...

The micro-macro paradox has been revived. Despite broadly positive evaluations at the micro- and meso-levels, recent literature doubts ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth development. This paper assesses aid-growth and, taking inspiration from program evaluation literature, we re-examine key hypotheses. In our findings, a statistically significant causal effect on over long run, with confidence intervals conforming levels suggested by theory. Aid remains tool for enhancing...

The Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices is a major concern for global poverty food insecurity. Despite numerous studies editorials the risks challenges of crisis, there little quantitative analysis its consequences developing countries. We use national economywide models to measure near-term impacts crisis agrifood systems, poverty, insecurity in 19 wide variations across countries, results confirm adverse with total 27.2 22.3 million more people pushed into...

ABSTRACT This paper assesses the implications of large-scale investments in biofuels for growth and income distribution. We find that investment enhances poverty reduction despite some displacement food crops by biofuels. Overall, biofuel trajectory analyzed increases Mozambique's annual economic 0.6 percentage points reduces incidence about 6 over a 12-year phase-in period. Benefits depend on production technology. An outgrower approach to producing is more pro-poor, due greater use...

South Africa is considering introducing a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Following discussion of the motivations for tax, we evaluate potential impacts using dynamic economywide model linked an energy sector including detailed evaluation border adjustments. Results indicate that phased-in US$30 per ton CO2 can achieve national emissions reductions targets set 2025. Relative baseline with free disposal CO2, constant world prices and no change in trading partner behavior,...

Abstract Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms‐of‐trade shock Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed data show that the increases being transmitted to domestic prices. Short‐run net benefit ratio analysis indicates urban households in southern region more vulnerable increases. Rural households, particularly North Center, often from seller position. Longer‐term computable general equilibrium (CGE) model...

We estimate the impact of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program using an economy‐wide approach. This approach yields benefit‐cost ratios about 60% higher than existing partial equilibrium studies, a result our accounting for indirect benefits. Fertilizer response rates remain determining parameter ratio levels. Even with lower‐end rates, program is pro‐poor and generates double‐dividends through more drought‐resilient yields. Overall, macro‐economically significant programs, strongly...

In recent years, academic studies have been converging towards the view that foreign aid promotes aggregate economic growth. We employ a simulation approach to: (i) validate coherence of empirical aid-growth published since 2008; and (ii) calculate plausible ranges for rate return to aid. Our results highlight long run nature aid-financed investments importance channels other than accumulation physical capital. find lies in commonly accepted public there is little justify has had significant...

Abstract South Africa is currently confronting an HIV/AIDS crisis. HIV prevalence in the population estimated at about 13 per cent with that number projected to increase over next five years or so. Given massive scale of problem and concentration effects on adults prime working age, pandemic expected sharply influence a host economic non‐economic variables. While will certainly rate growth, structural changes are also likely be one primary hallmarks AIDS pandemic. This paper builds work...

1996, July Economists recognize that results from simulation models are dependent, sometimes highly on values employed for critical exogenous variables. To account this, analysts conduct sensitivity analysis with respect to key variables. This paper presents a practical approach conducting systematic analysis, called Gaussian quadrature. The views variables as random associated distributions. It produces estimates of means and standard deviations model while requiring limited...

Abstract Due to their reliance on rain‐fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low‐income countries are considered be the most vulnerable climate change. Here, we estimate impact change food security in Tanzania. Representative projections used calibrated crop models predict yield changes for 110 districts These results turn imposed highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy‐wide model We find that, relative no‐climate‐change baseline considering domestic...

The present study develops a reliability assessment method of wind resource using optimum reservoir target power operations that maximizes the firm generation integrated and hydropower. A combination water resources model for system reservoirs implements demand–priority based linear programing algorithm single node grid is implemented on hourly time step. This was accompanied by global genetic solver to determine operation targets each storage aiming at maximizing 90th percentile produced...

A propitiously timed household survey carried out in Mozambique over the period 2008/2009 permits us to study relationship between shifts food prices and child nutrition status a low income setting. We focus on weight-for-height weight-for-age different quarters characterized by very price inflation rates. Using propensity score matching techniques, we find that these measures, which are sensitive short run, improve significantly fourth quarter of survey, when rate for basic products is low,...

Since 2007, large and unexpected declines in generation costs for renewable energy systems, particularly solar but also wind, combined with policy measures designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions, have created a paradigm shift systems. Variable now dominates total investment electricity power This dominance of variable has thrust the systems integration task matching supply demand center stage, presenting new challenges planning as well institutional organization Despite these challenges,...

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens heighten this vulnerability. In order evaluate potential impacts adaptation options for we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical...

Abstract Decision‐makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces stressor–response methodology engineering‐based models used as basis to estimate impact individual stressors on road in Mozambique. Through these models, functions introduced that quantify cost specific stressor based intensity type it is affecting. Utilizing four projection...