Significance When houses are built close to forests or other types of natural vegetation, they pose two problems related wildfires. First, there will be more wildfires due human ignitions. Second, that occur a greater risk lives and homes, hard fight, letting fires burn becomes impossible. We examined the number have been since 1990 in United States near an area known as wildland-urban interface (WUI), found large there. Approximately one three ten hectares now WUI. These WUI growth trends...

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including mediterranean-climate shrublands California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased ignitions at wildland–urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but activity risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was determine how humans influence in California examine whether this linear, by...

Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine-scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate-change impacts than coarse-scale models. However, these disagree in their conclusions how scale influences projected distributions. In rugged terrain, grids not capture topographically controlled variation at the constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions...

Humans influence the frequency and spatial pattern of fire contribute to altered regimes, but fuel loading is often only factor considered when planning management activities reduce hazard. Understanding both human biophysical landscape characteristics that explain how patterns vary should help identify where most likely threaten values at risk. We used explanatory variables model map ignitions in Santa Monica Mountains, a human-dominated southern California landscape. Most fires study area...

Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit behavior different places times, but most fire-climate analyses conducted across broad spatial extents that mask geographical variation. This could result overly or...

Abstract Background California in the year 2020 experienced a record breaking number of large fires. Here, we place this and other recent years historical context by examining records fire events state back to 1860. Since drought is commonly associated with events, investigated relationship droughts over 160 period. Results This study shows that extreme such as seen are not unknown historically, what stands out distinctly new increased fires (defined here > 10,000 ha) last couple years,...

Since the beginning of twenty-first century California, USA, has experienced a substantial increase in frequency large wildfires, often with extreme impacts on people and property. Due to size state, it is not surprising that factors driving these changes differ across this region. Although there are always multiple wildfire behavior, we believe helpful model for understanding fires state frame discussion terms bottom-up vs. top-down controls fire behavior; is, clearly dominated by...

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect frequency. Prior research California suggests relationship between density and frequency not linear. There few ignitions areas with low density, so low. As increases, also increase, beyond a threshold, becomes negative as fuels become...

Wildfire ignition distribution models are powerful tools for predicting the probability of ignitions across broad areas, and identifying their drivers. Several approaches have been used ignition-distribution modelling, yet performance different model types has not compared. This is unfortunate, given that conceptually similar species-distribution exhibit pronounced differences among types. Therefore, our goal was to compare predictive performance, variable importance spatial patterns...

Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, ecological consequences. The highest in U.S. occur southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year been destroyed by since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel and, a lesser degree, house characteristics homeowner responsibility. However, extent which land use planning could alleviate wildfire has largely missing from debate despite large...

With the potential for worsening fire conditions, discussion is escalating over how to best reduce effects on urban communities. A widely supported strategy creation of defensible space immediately surrounding homes and other structures. Although state local governments publish specific guidelines requirements, there little empirical evidence suggest much vegetation modification needed provide significant benefits. We analysed role by mapping measuring a suite variables modern pre-fire...

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural urban ecosystems. Predicting future regimes requires an understanding of how temperature precipitation interact control activity. Inevitably this historical analyses that relate annual burning climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role determining which climatic parameters are most influential here, by focusing the diversity...

The increasing extent of wildfires has prompted investigation into alternative fire management approaches to complement the traditional strategies suppression and fuels manipulation. Wildfire prevention through ignition reduction is an approach with potential for success, but ignitions result from a variety causes. If some sources in higher levels area burned, then programmes could be optimised target these distributions space time. We investigated most common causes two southern California...

Prediction maps produced by species distribution models (SDMs) influence decision‐making in resource management or designation of land conservation planning. Many studies have compared the prediction accuracy different SDM modeling methods, but few quantified similarity among maps. There has also been little systematic exploration how relative importance predictor variables varies model types and affects map similarity. Our objective was to expand evaluation performance for 45 plant southern...

State and federal agencies have reported fire causes since the early 1900s, explicitly for purpose of helping land managers design fire-prevention programs. We document fire-ignition patterns in five homogenous climate divisions California over past 98 years on state Cal Fire protected lands 107 United States Forest Service lands. Throughout state, frequency increased steadily until a peak c. 1980, followed by marked drop to 2016. There was not tight link between ignition sources area burned...

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating threat to property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives needed as part a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents shift traditional thinking from trying eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience them, toward avoiding exposure them through informed placement new residential structures....

Abstract Aim Plant distributions and vegetation dynamics underpin key global phenomena, including biogeochemical cycling, ecosystem productivity terrestrial biodiversity patterns. Aggregated remotely collected ‘big data’ are required to forecast the effects of change on plant communities. We synthesize advances in developing exploiting big data ecology, identify challenges their effective use studies. Location Global. Methods explored databases, catalogues registries with respect...

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire subsequent impacts human communities. The relative influence of climate versus fires impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given substantial geographical variability fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework compare importance climatic variables for explaining fire structure loss three diverse California landscapes, then...

Tens of thousands structures and hundreds human lives have been lost in recent fire events throughout California. Given the potential for these types wildfires to continue, need understand why how are being destroyed has taken on a new level urgency. We compiled analyzed an extensive dataset building inspectors’ reports documenting homeowner mitigation practices more than 40,000 wildfire-exposed from 2013–2018. Comparing homes that survived fires were destroyed, we investigated role...