A5059814214- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- earthquake and tectonic studies
- Seismology and Earthquake Studies
- Hydraulic Fracturing and Reservoir Analysis
- Advanced Multi-Objective Optimization Algorithms
- Landslides and related hazards
- Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Seismic Imaging and Inversion Techniques
- Geological and Geochemical Analysis
- Seismic Waves and Analysis
- High-pressure geophysics and materials
Scuola Superiore Meridionale
2022-2024
British Geological Survey
2019-2022
University of Bristol
2019-2022
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
2016
Abstract The 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial mainshock. Recent studies reveal that physics‐based aftershock forecasts present comparable skills to their statistical counterparts, but performance remains controversial subject. Here we employ models combine elasto‐static stress transfer with rate‐and‐state friction laws, and short‐term Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)...
Enhanced earthquake catalogs provide detailed images of evolving seismic sequences. Currently, these data sets take some time to be released but will soon become available in real time. Here, we explore whether and how enhanced feeding into established short-term forecasting protocols may result higher predictive skill. We consider three for the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence, featuring a bulk completeness lower by at least two magnitude units compared real-time catalog an improved...
Abstract The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is the most effective mathematical description of short-term space–time earthquake clustering. However, use such a sometimes hampered by difficulty in estimating high number its unknown correlated parameters. Moreover, recent ETAS formulations introduce variability some parameters that makes their estimation even more arduous. Here, we investigate an opposite perspective, looking for simplest parameterization can satisfactorily...
ABSTRACT Operational earthquake forecasting protocols commonly use statistical models for their recognized ease of implementation and robustness in describing the short-term spatiotemporal patterns triggered seismicity. However, recent advances on physics-based aftershock reveal comparable performance to standard counterparts with significantly improved predictive skills when fault stress-field heterogeneities are considered. Here, we perform a pseudoprospective experiment during first month...
<p>At 01:36 UTC (03:36 local time) on August 24th 2016, an earthquake Mw 6.0 struck extensive sector of the central Apennines (coordinates: latitude 42.70° N, longitude 13.23° E, 8.0 km depth). The caused about 300 casualties and severe damage to historical buildings economic activity in area located near borders Umbria, Lazio, Abruzzo Marche regions. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) few minutes hypocenter Accumoli, a small town province Rieti. In hours after...
Abstract The development of robust forecasts human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess performance a well-established statistical model, epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) with catalog ∼93,000 microearthquakes observed at Preston New Road (PNR, United Kingdom) unconventional shale gas site during, and after hydraulic fracturing PNR-1z PNR-2 wells. Because ETAS was developed for slower loading rate tectonic...
We use amplitude ratios from narrowband-filtered earthquake seismograms to measure variations of seismic attenuation over time, providing unique insights into the dynamic state stress in Earth’s crust at depth. Our dataset earthquakes 2016–2017 Central Apennines sequence allows us obtain high-resolution time histories (frequency band: 0.5–30 Hz) characterized by strong dilatation-induced fluctuations seismogenic depths, caused cumulative elastic drop after sequence, as well damage-induced...
Abstract The protracted nature of the 2016-2017 central Italy seismic sequence, with multiple damaging earthquakes spaced over months, presented serious challenges for duty seismologists and emergency managers as they assimilated growing sequence to advise local population. Uncertainty concerning where when it was safe occupy vulnerable structures highlighted need timely delivery scientifically based understanding evolving hazard risk. Seismic assessment during complex sequences depends...
Landslides are among the most destructive natural disasters that occur frequently worldwide, claiming lives and causing severe economic losses. The common approaches for managing short-term landslide risk is based on definition of deterministic thresholds a triggering event (a seismic quantity, or an amount rain) above which expected to occur. However, landslides, as well events, hardly predictable deterministically, owing unavoidable ubiquitous presence uncertainties different kind. In this...
The optimization of geometries for aerodynamic design often relies on a large number expensive simulations to evaluate and iteratively improve the geometries. It is possible reduce by providing starting geometry that has properties close desired requirements, in terms lift drag, moments surface areas. We show generative models have potential provide such generalizing over dataset simulations. In particular, we leverage diffusion probabilistic trained XFOIL synthesize two-dimensional airfoil...
Measuring variations of seismic attenuation over time, while requiring extreme measurement sensitivity, provides unique insights into the dynamic state stress in Earth’s crust at depth. We analyze data from earthquakes 2016-2017 Central Apennines sequence and obtain high-resolution time histories a wide frequency band (0.5-30 Hz) that are characterized by strong earthquake dilatation-induced fluctuations (deep), as well damage-induced ones (shallow). The cumulative elastic drop after causes...
&lt;p&gt;Artificial intelligence methods are revolutionizing modern seismology by offering unprecedentedly rich seismic catalogs. Recent developments in short-term aftershock forecasting show that Coulomb rate-and-state (CRS) models hold the potential to achieve operational skills comparable standard statistical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, but only when near real-time data quality allows incorporate a more detailed representation of sources and receiver fault...