A5034680720- Water resources management and optimization
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Climate variability and models
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate change and permafrost
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Water Systems and Optimization
- Electric Power System Optimization
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications
- Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Tufts University
2018-2025
Joint Global Change Research Institute
2022-2023
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2022-2023
Cornell University
2011-2023
ORCID
2020
Hollister (United States)
2011-2015
City University of New York
2014
Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, managed systems' adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors responses, it critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis potential impacts by linking global human-Earth system model, hydrologic metric for loss surplus due resource...
The goal of this commentary is to critically evaluate the use popular performance metrics in hydrologic modeling. We focus on Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta (KGE) metrics, which are both widely used research practice around world. Our specific objectives are: (a) provide tools that quantify sampling uncertainty metrics; (b) across a large sample catchments; (c) prescribe further is, needed improve estimation, interpretation, large-sample analysis demonstrates there...
The Grubbs‐Beck test is recommended by the federal guidelines for detection of low outliers in flood flow frequency computation United States. This paper presents a generalization normal data (similar to Rosner (1983) test; see also Spencer and McCuen (1996)) that can provide consistent standard identifying multiple potentially influential flows. In cases where have been identified, they be represented as “less‐than” values, distribution developed using censored‐data statistical techniques,...
Abstract The Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency ( NSE ) and the Kling‐Gupta KGE are now most widely used indices in hydrology for evaluation of goodness fit between model simulations S observations O . We introduce two theoretical (probabilistic) definitions efficiency, E E′ , based on estimators respectively, which enable controlled Monte Carlo experiments at 447 watersheds to evaluate their performance. Although is generally unbiased, it exhibits enormous variability from one sample another, due...
Exploratory simulation allows analysts to discover scenarios in which existing or planned water supplies may fail meet stakeholder objectives. These robustness assessments rely heavily on the choice of plausible future scenarios, which, case drought management, requires sampling generating a streamflow ensemble that extends beyond historical record. This study develops method modify synthetic generators by increasing frequency and severity droughts for purpose exploratory modeling. To...
An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The builds Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" adaptation" facilitate flexible discovery diverse consequential scenarios. We combine visual statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set 33,750 scenarios generated using Global Change Assessment Model. demonstrate how aid in...
Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, coordination have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations large-scale hydrological models. The aim this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that common...
Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience climate and economic shocks change. However, also subject numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application simulation for prediction planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed combination methods characterize, attribute, quantify these both single‐ systems. Here, we review challenges complications idealized...
Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from LAC have importance. Understanding where could occur what exacerbate it critical for strategic resource management planning, both regionally globally. Assessing future challenging given complex interactions among EWL sectors multiple uncertainties acting...
Traded agricultural goods redistribute water, virtually, around the world to satisfy unmet demands while limiting excess water extraction in importing regions. However, gaps remain our understanding of how alternative international trade regimes may alter demands, locally and virtually. Here, we explore global savings virtual impacts such under reference low-carbon scenarios using an integrated water-constrained human-earth system model. We find that varying market integration significantly...
The coefficient of determination R2 and Pearson correlation ρ = R are standard metrics in hydrology for the evaluation goodness fit between model simulations observations, as measures degree dependence one variable upon another. We show that product moment estimator ρ, termed r, while well-behaved bivariate normal data, is upward biased highly non-normal data. introduce three alternative estimators which nearly unbiased exhibit much less variability than r also document remarkable bias...
Abstract Deterministic watershed models (DWMs) are used in nearly all hydrologic planning, design, and management activities, yet they cannot generate streamflow ensembles needed for risk (HRM). The stochastic component of DWMs is often ignored practice, leading to a systematic bias extreme events. Since traditional HRM struggle account anthropogenic change, there need convert into (SWMs) use HRM. A DWM can be converted an SWM using post‐processing (pp) approach add error the predictions....
With Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG-6), member states of the UN declared their ambition for universal access to safely managed water, recognising this as fundamental human health, wellbeing, socioeconomic development, and gender equity.1WHOUNICEFSafely drinking water—thematic report on water 217. World Health Organisation United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, Geneva2017Google Scholar Through support expert groups, defined a continuous supply uncontaminated delivered...
Water, energy, and food are all essential components of human societies. Collectively, their respective resource systems interconnected in what is called the “nexus”. There growing consensus that a holistic understanding interdependencies trade-offs between these sectors other related critical to solving many global challenges they present. While nexus research has grown exponentially since 2011, there no unified, overarching approach, implementation concepts remains hampered by lack clear...
Abstract The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land water resources. In this study we use Global Change Analysis Model evaluate opportunities challenges posed by two global‐scale drivers: market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) land‐based climate mitigation policy. We their potential individual combined impacts on production revenues across LAC's economies...
Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted regional, so any action to convert will contain inherent tradeoffs. These complicated deeply uncertain evolution various sectors influencing scarcity. A need therefore exists provide multi‐metric multi‐sector assessments that robust myriad uncertainties. conservation effectively limits supply productive land, while biofuel consumption...
Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities have been enacted with the goal of reducing global deforestation and emissions. However, limited market share importers imposing such potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they result in negative economic implications producers consumers. We quantify future oil palm soybean import restrictions. Current EU are likely to minimal impact due EU's otherwise small declining soy demand. If extended beyond...
Climate models have grown increasingly complex as they aim to capture interactions between environmental, social, and economic systems. These are now routinely used generate large ensembles of scenarios, requiring robust scalable methods extract meaningful insights. Our research demonstrates the application Outlier Set Two-step Identification (OSTI) systematically extract, evaluate interpret outlying futures from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) outputs. OSTI is a novel technique that...