Abstract Radiative energy fluxes exiting the atmosphere toward surface and to space are sensitive vertical structure of temperature. Under anthropogenic forcing, this sensitivity gives rise lapse‐rate feedback. Negative in tropics positive Arctic, studies argue that feedback is a primary cause Arctic Amplification. While negative tropical understood mechanistically, mechanics less clear. Stable stratification necessary condition for feedback; however, does stable place any further constraint...

Abstract Using the climate feedback response analysis method, authors examine individual contributions of CO2 radiative forcing and feedbacks to magnitude, spatial pattern, seasonality transient surface warming in a 1% yr−1 increase simulation NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). The water vapor warm everywhere throughout year. tropical is predominantly caused by feedback, while evaporation reduces warming. Most exhibit noticeable seasonal variations; however, their net...

Abstract Model warming projections, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, have a large inter-model spread in both their geographical patterns and global mean values. The pattern (WPS) limits our ability to foresee the severity of regional impacts on nature society. This paper focuses uncovering feedbacks responsible for WPS. Here, we identify two dominant WPS modes whose values also explain 98.7% (GWS). We show that ice-albedo feedback explains uncertainties polar regions while water vapor...

Abstract. The filtered radiances measured by the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments are converted to shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), window unfiltered based on regressions developed from theoretical radiative transfer simulations relate radiances. This paper describes an update existing Edition 4 CERES unfiltering algorithm (Loeb et al., 2001), incorporating most recent developments in modeling, ancillary input datasets, increased computational storage capabilities...

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides quantitative understanding main processes that contribute to land-sea asymmetry global simulation NCAR CCSM4. The CO2 forcing alone warms surface nearly same for sea, suggesting feedbacks are responsible contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms principal contributor above-unity land-to-sea ratio evaporation feedback; other results indicate sensible heat flux...

Abstract Climate feedback processes are known to substantially amplify the surface warming response an increase of greenhouse gases. When forcing and feedbacks modify temperature they trigger loops that direct changes due nontemperature through thermal–radiative coupling between atmosphere surface. This study introduces a new feedback-response analysis method can isolate quantify effects individual on from their corresponding responses. The authors analyze 1% yr−1 CO2 simulation NCAR CCSM4...

Abstract Since Chaney’s report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling CO 2 —from 1.5 °C 4.5 or greater —remains largely unscathed by onslaught new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences climate feedbacks as sole cause projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed light on this issue indicating that inherit diversity from model control climate, besides models’ intrinsic feedback is independent state. Regulated ice coverage, models...

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but muted since, referred as global hiatus in literature. Decadal changes deep ocean heat uptake are thought primarily account for and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine role of establishing fast periods ERA-interim through decomposition energy budget. We find increase carbon dioxide alone yields nearly steady downward longwave radiation at present, neither accounts nor periods. During...

Abstract A paradoxical negative greenhouse effect has been found over the Antarctic Plateau, indicating that gases enhance energy loss to space. Using 13 years of NASA satellite observations, we verify existence and find magnitude sign varies seasonally spectrally. previous explanation attributes this solely stratospheric CO 2 ; however, surprisingly is predominantly caused by tropospheric water vapor. recently developed principle-based concept used provide a complete account Plateau’s it...

Abstract In January of 2016, the Ross Sea sector West Antarctica ice sheet experienced a 3‐week‐long melting episode. Here we quantify association large‐extent and long‐lasting event with enhancement downward longwave (LW) radiative fluxes at surface due to water vapor, cloud, atmospheric dynamic feedbacks using ERA‐Interim data set. The abnormally temporal surges moisture, warm air, low‐level clouds increase LW energy flux during massive ice‐melting period. concurrent timing spatial overlap...

Abstract In response to a positive CO 2 forcing, the seasonal Arctic warming pattern is characterized by an early winter maximum and summer minimum. While robust, our fundamental understanding of expression surface remains incomplete. Our analysis explores relationship between cycle heating rate changes structure in modern climate models. Consistent across all models, we find that background summer-to-winter cooling winter-to-summer slows over sea ice regions increased . The slowing leads...

Abstract This study puts forward a Lagrangian view of downward and upward longwave (LW) fluxes to improve our physical understanding the influence key factors on LW fluxes' response an increase CO 2 . To facilitate such view, we introduce new saturation‐level concept based radiative transfer theory. The enable us provide, under single framework, general explanation spatial variation (e.g., stratospheric cooling lower tropospheric warming) direct heating concentration. Following concept,...

Energy budget decompositions have widely been used to evaluate individual process contributions surface warming. Conventionally, the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy has carry out such attribution, while other studies use instead. However, two perspectives do not provide same interpretation of warming, particularly when executing a spatial analysis. These differences cloud our understanding and inhibit ability shrink inter-model spread. Changes TOA are equivalent sum changes in atmospheric...

The observed and projected Arctic warming pattern is characterized by an early winter maximum a summer minimum. While robust feature of climate change, the seasonal expression surface remains incompletely understood. Previous explanations attribute seasonality to energy budget changes induced feedbacks. However, these hypotheses cannot explain key features simulated structure: heating rate maximum. We find that increase in thermal inertia system due transition from lower (sea ice cover)...

Abstract Uncertainty in Arctic top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux observations stems from the low sun angles and heterogeneous scenes. Advancing our understanding of climate system requires improved TOA fluxes. We compare Cloud Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) fluxes with Radiation‐IceBridge Sea Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne measurements using two approaches: grid box averages instantaneously matched footprints. Both approaches indicate excellent agreement longwave good shortwave...