A5054207789- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Climate variability and models
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Icing and De-icing Technologies
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Air Traffic Management and Optimization
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Human-Automation Interaction and Safety
- Aerospace and Aviation Technology
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Lightning and Electromagnetic Phenomena
- Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Radioactivity and Radon Measurements
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
- Gas Dynamics and Kinetic Theory
Bureau of Meteorology
2007-2023
Australian Government
2019
Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research
2015
Bangladesh Medical Research Council
2004-2007
University of Salford
2003
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
2003
Met Office
2003
NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
2003
James Cook University
2003
The University of Adelaide
1989
Abstract The robustness of the Numerical Atmospheric‐dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) for forecasting dispersion volcanic ash clouds is investigated by comparing output from different Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) models initialised using parameters 2004 Grimsvötn, Iceland, eruption. London, Darwin, Washington, Montreal and Toulouse VAAC are all run operationally as if responding to Comparison model set‐ups reveals differing approaches between VAACs averaging times, release...
Abstract. The High Altitude Ice Crystals – Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) joint field campaign produced aircraft retrievals of total condensed water content (TWC), hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs), and vertical velocity (w) in high ice regions mature decaying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). resulting dataset is used here to explore causes the commonly documented bias radar reflectivity within cloud-resolving simulations deep convection. This has been linked overly...
Abstract Fog events occur at Melbourne Airport, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, approximately 12 times each year. Unforecast are costly to the aviation industry, cause disruption, and a safety risk. Thus, there is need improve operational fog forecasting. However, difficult forecast because of complexity physical processes impact local geography weather elements. Bayesian networks (BNs) probabilistic reasoning tool widely used for prediction, diagnosis, risk assessment in range application...
Over 150 jet engine power-loss and damage events have been attributed to a phenomenon known as Ice Crystal Icing (ICI) during the past two decades. Attributed ingestion of large numbers small ice particles into core, typically these occurred at high altitudes near convective systems in tropical air masses. In recent years there substantial international efforts by scientists, engineers, aviation regulators airlines better understand relevant meteorological processes, solve critical...
Abstract In this paper we demonstrate how parameters describing the geometry of volcanic ash source for a particular dispersion model (Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT)) may be inferred by use satellite data and multiple trial simulations. The areas space likely to contaminated are identified with aid various remote sensing techniques, polygons drawn around these as they would in an operational setting. Dispersion simulations initialized either cylindrical or...
The first World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP), with a focus on nowcasting, was conducted in Sydney, Australia, from 4 September to 21 November 2000 during period associated the Sydney Olympic Games. Through international collaboration, nine nowcasting systems United States, Kingdom, Canada, and Australia were deployed at Office of Bureau Meteorology (BOM) demonstrate capability modern forecast quantify benefits delivery real-time nowcast service....
Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of verifying and calibrating ensemble‐based probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts. The ensemble members are constructed from dispersion model simulations with different meteorological fields obtained an forecast values source parameters such as column height vertical mass distribution. Brier score is employed to verify forecasts relative binary‐valued detection fully quantitative satellite‐retrieved load fields. A new calibration methodology,...
The characteristics of radar echoes for 12 thunderstorm days in the vicinity Sydney, Australia, summer 1995/96 have been examined using an objective methodology storm identification and tracking. spatial distribution identified storms shows a maximum frequency intensity along east side mountains that lie inland from coast. Characteristics such as volume, area, height are shown to lognormal distribution. Reflectivity also has skewed with prevalence lower reflectivity storms. Both be...
Abstract The aim of this study is to examine the statistics convective storms and their concomitant changes with thermodynamic variability. variability analyzed by performing a cluster analysis on variables derived from radiosonde releases at Brisbane Airport in Australia. Three objectively defined regimes are found: dry, stable regime mainly westerly surface winds, moist northerly regime, trade wind regime. S-band radar data identified using objective tracking software [Thunderstorm...
Abstract Airborne volcanic ash is a hazard to aviation. There an increasing demand for quantitative forecasts of properties such as mass load allow airline operators better manage the risks flying through airspace likely be contaminated by ash. In this paper we show how satellite‐derived information at times prior issuance latest forecast can used estimate various model parameters that are not easily obtained other means distribution column volcano. This in turn leads load. We demonstrate...
We present a new inverse modelling approach for integrating satellite detections of volcanic ash with dispersion models. demonstrate the utility this in estimating column height February 2014 eruption Mount Kelut Java, Indonesia. show that inferred is consistent estimates obtained by other remote sensing techniques. This method may be used to obtain model parameters such as cases where no information available or subject significant uncertainty. References Casadevall, T. J., (Ed) Volcanic...
Two studies of microburst forecasting were conducted in order to demonstrate the utility applying theoretical and methodological concepts from judgment decision making meteorology. A hierarchical model process is outlined which a precursor identification phase separated prediction phase. In first study, forecasters provided with specific, unambiguous values asked provide judgments regarding probability microburst. Results indicated that meteorologists' forecast adequately predicted by linear...
The statistical impact of including the process wet deposition in dispersion model predictions movement volcanic ash is assessed. Based on hypothetical eruptions Merapi, Indonesia, sets simulations were generated, each containing four per day over a period three years, to provide results based wide range atmospheric conditions. While average dry sedimentation removes approximately 10% from atmosphere during first 24 h, an additional 30% seasons with highest rainfall (December and January)...
Perth Airport is located on a coastal plain in the south-west of Australia, with Indian Ocean to west and Darling Scarp running approximately parallel coast east. On average, there are nine fog events per year at airport, typically occurring during cooler months early morning hours. Onshore winds bringing moisture from can combine nocturnal cooling stable atmospheres encourage formation. A previous climatological study found that majority had north north-easterly 10-m onset time. Two case...
Abstract A simple inversion scheme for optimizing volcanic emission dispersion model parameters with respect to satellite detections is presented in this paper. In scheme, multiple simulations, obtained by varying relevant parameters, are created and compared against using pattern correlation as a measure of agreement observations. It shown that the successful inferring source such those describing vertical extent nascent sulfur dioxide emissions November 2010 Mount Merapi eruption Java,...
Abstract This paper describes development of a method for discriminating high ice water content (HIWC) conditions that can disrupt jet-engine performance in commuter and large transport aircraft. Using input data from satellites, numerical weather prediction models, ground-based radar, this effort employs machine learning to determine optimal combinations available information using fuzzy logic. Airborne situ measurements (IWC) series field experiments sampled HIWC serve as training the...
Areas of high ice water content (HIWC) within cloud systems may cause power loss events and engine damage in jet aircraft due to crystal icing (ICI). The Algorithm for Prediction HIWC (ALPHA) was developed identify these regions enable provision guidance airlines. ALPHA combines numerical weather prediction model data, satellite radar data (where available), applies fuzzy logic the likely presence HIWC. In a collaboration between U.S. National Center Atmospheric Research, Australian Bureau...
Automatic detection of microbursts with Doppler radar data is an interesting challenge. Traditionally, manual performed by trained meteorologists who scan through the volumetric for appropriate signatures, bringing to bear human powers pattern and analysis. More recently, automatic systems have been devised perform this using computer techniques together fuzzy logic. Here a system that attempts emulate technology agent networks (i.e., cooperating asynchronous software entities) presented. In...