A5102959104- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
- Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
- Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations
- Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Advanced Chemical Physics Studies
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
- Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation
- High-Energy Particle Collisions Research
- High-pressure geophysics and materials
- Mental Health Research Topics
- Laser-Matter Interactions and Applications
- HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- Semiconductor Lasers and Optical Devices
- Laser-induced spectroscopy and plasma
- Atomic and Molecular Physics
- Stochastic processes and statistical mechanics
- Laser-Plasma Interactions and Diagnostics
La Trobe University
1980-2024
Institute for Disease Modeling
2016-2019
Bellevue Hospital Center
2016-2019
Monash University
1977-2017
University of Oxford
1996-2016
National HIV/AIDS/STI/TB Council
2015
Victoria University of Wellington
2014
Harvard University
2009-2013
Pennsylvania State University
2012-2013
Scuola Internazionale Superiore di Studi Avanzati
1998-2012
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action susceptible–infected–recovered model of Kermack & McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual mathematical simplicity; however, it incorrectly assumes that all individuals have same contact rate partnerships are fleeting. In this study, we introduce edge-based compartmental modelling , a technique eliminating these assumptions. We derive simple ordinary...
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of Disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease, has moved rapidly around globe, infecting millions and killing hundreds thousands. The basic reproduction number, which been widely used—appropriately less appropriately—to characterize transmissibility virus, hides fact that transmission is stochastic, often dominated by a small number individuals, heavily influenced superspreading events (SSEs). distinct features...
The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, behavior in such gives insight into disease dynamics. A number authors have studied or epidemics clustered networks, but often contain preferential contacts high degree nodes. We introduce a class random unclustered with same mixing. Percolation reduces component sizes increases threshold compared to networks.
The effective Skyrme interaction has been used extensively in mean-field models for several decades and many different parametrizations of the have proposed. All these give similar agreement with experimental observables nuclear ground states as well properties infinite symmetric matter at saturation density ${n}_{0}.$ However, when applied over a wider range densities (up to $\ensuremath{\sim}{3n}_{0})$ they predict widely varying behavior both asymmetric matter. A particularly relevant...
The spread of infectious diseases fundamentally depends on the pattern contacts between individuals. Although studies contact networks have shown that heterogeneity in number and duration can far-reaching epidemiological consequences, models often assume are chosen at random thereby ignore sociological, temporal and/or spatial clustering contacts. Here we investigate simultaneous effects heterogeneous clustered patterns epidemic dynamics. To model population structure, generalize...
Background The epidemic sizes of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B infections vary from year to in the United States. We use publicly available US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) surveillance data between 1997 2009 study temporal dynamics over this period. Methods Findings Regional outpatient on influenza-like illness (ILI) virologic were combined define a weekly proxy incidence each strain All strains exhibited negative association their cumulative (CIP) whole season (from calendar week 40...
Networks of person-to-person contacts form the substrate along which infectious diseases spread. Most network-based studies this spread focus on impact variations in degree (the number an individual has). However, other effects such as clustering, infectiousness or susceptibility, closeness may play a significant role. We develop analytic techniques to predict how these alter growth rate, probability and size epidemics, validate predictions with realistic social network. find that (for given...
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility T_{uv} (the probability that infection of u causes v ) depends on the susceptibility . Initially, a single node is infected, following which large-scale epidemic may or not occur. use generating function approach to study how heterogeneity affects an occurs and, if one occurs, its attack rate fraction infected). For fixed average transmissibility, we...
Motivated by convection in the context of geological carbon-dioxide (CO2) storage, we present an experimental study dissolution-driven a Hele–Shaw cell for Rayleigh numbers \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\begin{document}$\mathcal {R}$\end{document}R range \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\begin{document}$100 < \mathcal {R}< 1700$\end{document}100<R<1700. We use potassium permanganate (KMnO4) water as analog CO2 brine and infer concentration profiles at high spatial...
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These allow us to standard SIR diseases spreading random populations. In this paper we show how handle deviations of or population from simplistic assumptions have structure due effects such as demographic detail multiple types risk behavior more complicated natural history. introduce these modifications static network context, though it is straightforward incorporate them into dynamic...
The emergence of Zika and Ebola demonstrates the importance understanding role sexual transmission in spread diseases with a primarily non-sexual route. In this paper, we develop low-dimensional models for how an SIR disease will if it transmits through contact network some other mechanism, such as direct or vectors. We show that derived accurately predict dynamics simulations large population limit, investigate
Individual-based models provide modularity and structural flexibility necessary for modeling of infectious diseases at the within-host population levels, but are challenging to implement. Levels complexity can exceed capacity timescales students trainees in most academic institutions. Here we describe process advantages a multi-disease framework approach developed with formal software support. The epidemiological software, EMOD, has undergone decade development. It is structured so that...
The interventions and outcomes in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are highly varied. disease both impose costs harm on society. Some with particularly high may only be implemented briefly. design of optimal policy requires consideration many intervention scenarios. In this paper we investigate timing that not sustainable for a long period. Specifically, look at impact single short-term non-repeated (a "one-shot intervention") an epidemic consider intervention's timing. To minimize total number...
Algorithms such as Kleinberg's HITS algorithm, the PageRank algorithm of Brin and Page, SALSA Lempel Moran use link structure a network web pages to assign weights each page in network. The can then be used rank authoritative sources. These algorithms share common underpinning; they find dominant eigenvector nonnegative matrix that describes given entries this weights. We commonality give unified treatment, proving existence required for PageRank, HITS, algorithms, uniqueness eigenvector,...
The present paper is devoted to a study of slowly rotating homogeneous masses in which the energy density E constant. structure such configurations determined with aid equations derived by Hartle exact framework general relativity. These have natural limit that static, non-rotating, must radii (R) exceeding 9/8 times Schwarzschild radius (R s ). structures, for varying R/R , are illustrated series graphs. A result particular interest emerges ellipticity configuration, but constant mass and...