A5001549174- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Groundwater and Isotope Geochemistry
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2004-2019
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat low-lying deltas. In this study we focus on specific example of such delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether country's flood protection strategy is capable coping future conditions, an assessment low-probability/high-impact scenarios conducted, focusing mainly sea rise. We develop plausible high-end scenario 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean...
We use a very high resolution global climate model (~25 km grid size) with prescribed sea surface temperatures to show that greenhouse warming enhances the occurrence of hurricane‐force (> 32.6 m s –1 ) storms over western Europe during early autumn (August–October), majority which originate as tropical cyclone. The rise in Atlantic extends eastward breeding ground cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed toward Europe. En route they transform...
Abstract Meteorological extremes have large impacts on society. The fact that approximately 40% of the Netherlands is below sea level makes this country especially vulnerable to flooding, both from and rivers. This has resulted in extensive research statistics extremes. However, applications meteorological hydrological situations are always hampered by brevity available datasets, as required return levels exceed record lengths a factor 10 100. In order overcome problem, we use archived data...
Abstract The distribution of outliers is used as a tool for finding the extreme value meteorological parameters and to provide return values large periods from short records. Its potential demonstrated five cases. For winds in Northern Hemisphere (NH) method shows that appropriately transformed annual maximum wind speeds can be described by Gumbel distribution; waves it rejects proposed adoption an exponential points daily European precipitation R confirms theoretically predicted k = 2/3 its...
The vulnerability of society on extreme weather has resulted in extensive research the statistics extremes. Although theoretical framework value is well developed, meteorological applications are often limited by relative shortness available datasets. In order to overcome this problem, we use archived data from all past seasonal forecast ensemble runs European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For regions where forecasts have very little skill ensembles provide independent...
A general expression for the statistical distribution of probability highest event occurring in a record is presented. This result can be empirically applied to situations where records are available multiple geographical locations. The empirical estimation events provides means assess whether assumed (extreme value) appropriate extrapolation or not. approach allows combining from different and validate estimated return periods order length combined records. method illustrated with an...
Abstract Statistical analysis of the wind speeds, generated by a climate model intermediate complexity, indicates existence areas where extreme value distribution extratropical winds is double populated, second population becoming dominant for return periods order 103 yr. Meteorological shows that it caused when cyclones merge in an extremely strong westerly jet stream such conditions are favorable occurrence diabatic feedbacks. Doubling greenhouse gas concentrations changes and increases...
The wind climate and its possible change in a warming world are important topics for many applications, among which marine coastal safety energy generation. Therefore, is an variable to investigate scenarios. In developing the part of KNMI'14 scenarios, output from several model categories have been analysed, ranging global General Circulation Models via regional (RCMs) suitably re-sampled RCM output. main conclusion that will not over Netherlands North Sea beyond large range natural...
Ensemble simulations with a total length of 7540 years are generated climate model, and coupled to simple surge model transform the wind field over North Sea skew level at Delfzijl, The Netherlands. 65 constructed records, each record 116 years, analysed generalized extreme value (GEV) Pareto distribution (GPD) study both sample uncertainty in estimates return period 104 as derived from 116-year records. optimal choice threshold, needed for an unbiased GPD estimate peak threshold (POT)...
Abstract. The Dutch Maeslant Barrier, a movable surge barrier in the mouth of river Rhine, closes when there is North Sea and water level at Rotterdam exceeds 3 m above mean sea level. An important aspect failure probability that might get damaged during closure that, within time needed for repair, second critical storm may occur. With an estimated frequency once 10 years, question how often has to be closed twice one month arises.Instead tackling this problem by application statistical...
Abstract A simple and effective parameterization for the profile of extreme wind gusts during severe conditions is presented. It shown that gust follows directly from logarithmic profile. Also uncertainty in estimates can easily be determined information average speed at two different heights. One specification practical importance maximum 3s-gust a 10 min period m height arithmetically equal to 140 m. At larger heights are an determinable factor α ( > 1) higher. Validation over The...
ABSTRACT The 10 m‐wind over flat terrain in models is often lower than observations indicate. Here we show that this negative bias mainly caused by the larger roughness lengths use World Meteorological Organisation ( WMO )‐advised length of short grass (0.03 m). concept potential wind, which transforms original wind to theoretical under assumption a local 0.03 m, well suited distinguish effect from other causes. It shows yearly averaged Hirlam Aladin Research on Meso‐scale Operational NWP...
Abstract. The Dutch Maeslant barrier, a movable surge barrier in the mouth of river Rhine, closes when due to North Sea water level Rotterdam would exceed 3 m above mean sea level. An important aspect failure probability is that might get damaged during closure and that, within time needed for repair, as second critical storm-surge occurs. With an estimated frequency once 10 years, question arises how often has be closed twice month. Instead tackling this problem by application statistical...
Ensemble simulations with a total length of 5336 years were generated the KNMI General Circulation Model ECBilt, coupled simple surge model to transform wind field over North Sea level at Delfzijl (NL). The resulting skew surges analysed Generalized Extreme Value distribution study uncertainty in estimates return period 104 years, as derived from observational records order hundred years. 46 estimated levels calculated sets 116 year each, vary between 4.5 and 17 meters, median 8.5 meter....